klw Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 7 hours ago, Patriot21 said: I work down in Hanover and it rained almost all day down there, almost on the verge of heavy a couple of times. Maybe I was just far enough east to get some of that. The brooks are flowing pretty good. We had 1.06 at the station around the corner from our house in Norwich. Good drink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted October 31, 2022 Author Share Posted October 31, 2022 GFS says winter starts in 10 days. Some of those snowmaking windows at the end of the run could make up for lost time. Only two weeks worth of runs to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 1 hour ago, bwt3650 said: GFS says winter starts in 10 days. Some of those snowmaking windows at the end of the run could make up for lost time. Only two weeks worth of runs to go. The Ensembles have disagreed with each time the Op goes colder. There may be some brief chances for snowmaking but I bet it’s past 11/15 for anything sustained. OP 850mb anomaly… vs the Ensemble Mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted October 31, 2022 Author Share Posted October 31, 2022 58 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The Ensembles have disagreed with each time the Op goes colder. There may be some brief chances for snowmaking but I bet it’s past 11/15 for anything sustained. OP 850mb anomaly… vs the Ensemble Mean. I'm sure I'll pay for going against you but....Trend looks cooler to me on the ensembles over the last 8 runs and it looks like nothing but below normal anomalies from the 9th-15th at 850 and the surface. If that held, wouldn't that get it done with where the averages are by the second week of Nov? I have to think you guys would blow if you get any 24 hour windows once November hits, no? I cant post the maps, but what's the 5 day mean over that time period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 38 minutes ago, bwt3650 said: I'm sure I'll pay for going against you but....Trend looks cooler to me on the ensembles over the last 8 runs and it looks like nothing but below normal anomalies from the 9th-15th at 850 and the surface. If that held, wouldn't that get it done with where the averages are by the second week of Nov? I have to think you guys would blow if you get any 24 hour windows once November hits, no? I cant post the maps, but what's the 5 day mean over that time period? Yeah you’re right, the 5-day mean is slightly below average. Ops will have snowmaking going at any opportunity in November really, but I generally lean conservative now to set expectations, ha. Need some decent long lasting cold though to put down sufficient depths on 2,100 verts and a couple miles of trail. It’s a long run and wide elevation range to cover at Stowe… there’s no half run cheating available, or only above 2,500ft type stuff. Need it cold enough at 1500ft to build wide base depths and maze depths at bottom of the Quad. That 2,200-1,500ft zone keeps me pessimistic more than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted October 31, 2022 Author Share Posted October 31, 2022 26 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah you’re right, the 5-day mean is slightly below average. Ops will have snowmaking going at any opportunity in November really, but I generally lean conservative now to set expectations, ha. Need some decent long lasting cold though to put down sufficient depths on 2,100 verts and a couple miles of trail. It’s a long run and wide elevation range to cover at Stowe… there’s no half run cheating available, or only above 2,500ft type stuff. Need it cold enough at 1500ft to build wide base depths and maze depths at bottom of the Quad. That 2,200-1,500ft zone keeps me pessimistic more than not. yeah, you guys do have a long winding route down to start. Lower North slope is the issue, right? Jay just focuses on Jet first, which is 1200 ft of straight down the fall line. Get off the lift, make a turn and just go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: Yeah you’re right, the 5-day mean is slightly below average. Ops will have snowmaking going at any opportunity in November really, but I generally lean conservative now to set expectations, ha. Need some decent long lasting cold though to put down sufficient depths on 2,100 verts and a couple miles of trail. It’s a long run and wide elevation range to cover at Stowe… there’s no half run cheating available, or only above 2,500ft type stuff. Need it cold enough at 1500ft to build wide base depths and maze depths at bottom of the Quad. That 2,200-1,500ft zone keeps me pessimistic more than not. By 11/15 the average temp here at 390' elev is 42/24 and dropping 0.3-0.4° daily. Might be 36/22 at 1500 in Stowe on the 15th and 32/20 at 2500. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 1 hour ago, bwt3650 said: yeah, you guys do have a long winding route down to start. Lower North slope is the issue, right? Jay just focuses on Jet first, which is 1200 ft of straight down the fall line. Get off the lift, make a turn and just go. Yeah North Slope from what historically is called “The Sun Spot” down… that’s like the top of middle T-Line on North Slope, top of Gulch, middle Standard type elevation. That’s usually like 2,200ft I think? Lower North Slope back to the Quad too is crutch, but those fan guns are decent. It’s just a lot of area that usually averages mid-30s for highs and doesn’t radiational cool either (mid-slope mixed)… so that 1500-2200ft is often warmer than town most nights. If it’s CAA pattern, it’s low enough that it needs to be deep cold to get wet-bulbs mid-20s and below. If it’s radiational, it’s often above the inversion so it stays warmer at night. A lot of like 24F up top, 34F at 1500ft, then 24F in town. Everyone wakes up to frozen in town, sees it’s lower 20s at the summit, and then is pissed the mountain didn’t make snow from 1500-2500ft … like trying to save money or something. But that mid-slope elevation can stay mild and be tough in November unless the air mass is truly cold (like 20F at summit or lower). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 15 minutes ago, tamarack said: By 11/15 the average temp here at 390' elev is 42/24 and dropping 0.3-0.4° daily. Might be 36/22 at 1500 in Stowe on the 15th and 32/20 at 2500. Raise the minimum at 1500ft. That’s a local warm spot. Like a Tolland hilltop… often stays well mixed. Nighttime is a snowmaking issue in that elevation band unless it’s strong CAA top-down cooling. Low diurnal temp changes often at 1500-2000ft. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 Until we see the Ensembles show more wholesale changes, I think we’ll keep seeing this back and forth. The 12z GFS went back to blowtorch where 6z had full winter. Settles in chilly at the very end though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 Probably riding the roller coaster there for a while in mid-late Novie. It’ll be a step down from the first 10-14 days of the month though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 In the meantime let's enjoy this incredible stretch of weather ahead. I'll take the gift of at least two more weeks of great trail riding, hiking, and outdoor projects weather. Never understood the desire to blow the load in November and December. Best skiing always in March and April. Even in last year's torch spring I lucked out at Jay with a 6" storm on April 10th and then enjoyed 4 days of powder skiing in Utah two weeks later and a top to bottom Hillman's run in early May. Hard to ask for more than that. It's a long season..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said: In the meantime let's enjoy this incredible stretch of weather ahead. I'll take the gift of at least two more weeks of great trail riding, hiking, and outdoor projects weather. Never understood the desire to blow the load in November and December. Best skiing always in March and April. Even in last year's torch spring I lucked out at Jay with a 6" storm on April 10th and then enjoyed 4 days of powder skiing in Utah two weeks later and a top to bottom Hillman's run in early May. Hard to ask for more than that. It's a long season..... Agreed. I'm not really sad by any means about it. It feels to go against what I used to live by but winter's are long up north... if we can enjoy a couple more weeks of these mild days and large diurnal swings, I'm all for it. November ribbon of death is fun for the first few runs and then it can be a while before any other meaningful skiing can take place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted October 31, 2022 Author Share Posted October 31, 2022 15 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said: In the meantime let's enjoy this incredible stretch of weather ahead. I'll take the gift of at least two more weeks of great trail riding, hiking, and outdoor projects weather. Never understood the desire to blow the load in November and December. Best skiing always in March and April. Even in last year's torch spring I lucked out at Jay with a 6" storm on April 10th and then enjoyed 4 days of powder skiing in Utah two weeks later and a top to bottom Hillman's run in early May. Hard to ask for more than that. It's a long season..... No doubt...The ski season for those that ski twice a year is Thanksgiving to Presidents day. The passionate skiers live for March and April. Mild is much better than upper 30s and just warm enough....But by mid November, I'm ready to start seeing those nice long snowmaking windows and snow threats start to show up. The kid in me lives for watching the terrain build out through December and Jan, even if not the best skiing. Jay had a great April. I think I was up around that time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 I have not been paying too much attention but way out in fantasy land things could get interesting. Besides the cold blast on the GFS it also wants to develop some type of tropical system in around the same time period. If this all happened and timing was right something in some form could be yanked up the coast. Maybe a Sandy type of setup?? Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 17 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: I have not been paying too much attention but way out in fantasy land things could get interesting. Besides the cold blast on the GFS it also wants to develop some type of tropical system in around the same time period. If this all happened and timing was right something in some form could be yanked up the coast. Maybe a Sandy type of setup?? Thoughts? "Ginny" (1963) repeat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted October 31, 2022 Author Share Posted October 31, 2022 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: Yeah North Slope from what historically is called “The Sun Spot” down… that’s like the top of middle T-Line on North Slope, top of Gulch, middle Standard type elevation. That’s usually like 2,200ft I think? Lower North Slope back to the Quad too is crutch, but those fan guns are decent. It’s just a lot of area that usually averages mid-30s for highs and doesn’t radiational cool either (mid-slope mixed)… so that 1500-2200ft is often warmer than town most nights. If it’s CAA pattern, it’s low enough that it needs to be deep cold to get wet-bulbs mid-20s and below. If it’s radiational, it’s often above the inversion so it stays warmer at night. A lot of like 24F up top, 34F at 1500ft, then 24F in town. Everyone wakes up to frozen in town, sees it’s lower 20s at the summit, and then is pissed the mountain didn’t make snow from 1500-2500ft … like trying to save money or something. But that mid-slope elevation can stay mild and be tough in November unless the air mass is truly cold (like 20F at summit or lower). Na, pre-vail they would have blown snow even if it was inn the 50s...f vail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 28 minutes ago, bwt3650 said: Na, pre-vail they would have blown snow even if it was inn the 50s...f vail. 50° with TD 10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 1 hour ago, bwt3650 said: Na, pre-vail they would have blown snow even if it was inn the 50s...f vail. Nah many skiers all thought AIG was always doing things to save money to boost profits (like not making snow for 12 hours altered AIG’s global bottom line), especially after the taxpayers bailed the company out in like 2008 or 09. It doesn’t matter what ski area it is, if someone *thinks* it’s cold enough, or it’s not windy enough, or whatever… ski areas are always looking to save money by not making snow, running lifts, not grooming (even though it rained all night), etc. It can’t possibly be because there’s a valid other reason (temps, wind, weather, snow preservation, etc) . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 3 hours ago, NW_of_GYX said: In the meantime let's enjoy this incredible stretch of weather ahead. I'll take the gift of at least two more weeks of great trail riding, hiking, and outdoor projects weather. Never understood the desire to blow the load in November and December. Best skiing always in March and April. Even in last year's torch spring I lucked out at Jay with a 6" storm on April 10th and then enjoyed 4 days of powder skiing in Utah two weeks later and a top to bottom Hillman's run in early May. Hard to ask for more than that. It's a long season..... I definitely have been enjoying this stretch 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 57 minutes ago, mreaves said: I definitely have been enjoying this stretch Man, I love visiting the tropics of Burlington. Those white sandy beaches of Lake Champlain look nice with the Hilton hotel there behind it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 8 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Man, I love visiting the tropics of Burlington. Those white sandy beaches of Lake Champlain look nice with the Hilton hotel there behind it. I’m in Panama City, FL. It’s off season but the water is still warmer than Maine in the height of summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 3 hours ago, bwt3650 said: No doubt...The ski season for those that ski twice a year is Thanksgiving to Presidents day. The passionate skiers live for March and April. Mild is much better than upper 30s and just warm enough....But by mid November, I'm ready to start seeing those nice long snowmaking windows and snow threats start to show up. The kid in me lives for watching the terrain build out through December and Jan, even if not the best skiing. Jay had a great April. I think I was up around that time... I love those sleeper April powder days in northern Vermont and Maine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 October 2022 in the Maine foothills - probably the nicest 10th month of the 25 years here. Avg mean: 47.1 2.1 AN Oct 1-12 ran 4.3 BN and 13-31 was 5.3 AN. Avg high: 59.2 3.8 AN Mildest, 72 on the 6th; coolest, 45 on the 10th Avg low: 35.0 0.4 AN Coldest, 23 on 11th, 29th. Mildest, 57 on the 26th, latest in season for 57 or milder minima. Precip: 6.41" 0.75" AN 5.95" came on just 3 days, 3.30" on the 14th (greatest calendar precip in Oct), 1.51" on the 18th and 1.14" on the 26th Sept-Oct - both months with AN precip, first time that happened since Nov-Dec 2020. Snow: No traces recorded This past October featured 16 sunny days, 4 more than in 2017 and 7 more than any of the others. A mild and sunny mid-fall with AN precip that reduced the year's deficit to 2.15" and with 93% of that precip packed into just 3 days, plus average to above color - that's hard to beat. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 I know they are very rare, but she is lucky as might have been killed if the boyfriend doesn't intervene. I think only 1 documented black bear death in VT history? https://www.reformer.com/local-news/its-not-their-fault-winhall-woman-recovering-from-bear-attack/article_26d67128-5bb5-11ed-aff2-e3106b29a52e.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted November 5, 2022 Share Posted November 5, 2022 I love this weather. I wish it would stick around a little longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 68 degrees at 1045pm on Nov 5th, I love it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 Snow making weather, incoming... Ugh!!! Time to move away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 Breezy upper 60s, but dews 25-30° lower than yesterday. After 4 consecutive total lunar eclipses spoiled here by clouds, much of tomorrow morning's will be spoiled by sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borderwx Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 First proper windshield scrape session and the white strip has made an appearance on the hillCertainly a better than sign than last week’s NH hunting in T shirts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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