Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

NNE Cold Season Thread 2022/2023


bwt3650
 Share

Recommended Posts

9 hours ago, eyewall said:

Powder does this count as snowliage from yesterday?

Snowliage-web.jpg

The leftovers made it through till Sunday… even made it through Sunday night at the Cliff House up in the clouds.

Shows how long 1.5” of snow can linger at like low-mid 30s temps this time of year. Sun angle continues to lower quickly.  The upper slopes that are shadowed the most tend to hold the snow.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, powderfreak said:

The leftovers made it through till Sunday… even made it through Sunday night at the Cliff House up in the clouds.

Shows how long 1.5” of snow can linger at like low-mid 30s temps this time of year. Sun angle continues to lower quickly.  The upper slopes that are shadowed the most tend to hold the snow.

Yeah it would have been fun to catch it up there when it happened. I love by the way how the tourist crowds largely skip the Nebraska Valley where I got some of my best aerials so far.

neb6web.jpg

 

Neb4web.jpg

neb5web.jpg

neb7web.jpg

neb8web.jpg

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Let me apologize if I am clogging up this thread too much. It looks like people need to get their viewing before heavy rain on Thursday. Anyway another interesting note is the saturation levels look different depending on which site I post on. I have been trying to make it pop but not well beyond the scope of reality. It really is incredibly brilliant out there in places. Facebook really blows it out on my computer and this site can enhance it at times even more. Either way you get the idea. It has been a great little trip.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, eyewall said:

Let me apologize if I am clogging up this thread too much. It looks like people need to get their viewing before heavy rain on Thursday. Anyway another interesting note is the saturation levels look different depending on which site I post on. I have been trying to make it pop but not well beyond the scope of reality. It really is incredibly brilliant out there in places. Facebook really blows it out on my computer and this site can enhance it at times even more. Either way you get the idea. It has been a great little trip.

Glad you had a good trip.  I agree it has been about the best season I have ever seen.  Your post brings up my old pet peeve.  What is real and what is enhanced?  It seems almost everyone retouches photos.  Not like the old days when a color picture was developed it looked like what the eye would see.  It frustrates me because you can make any picture pop!  The more they are saturated the more ow's and ah's they get. That said the colors this year were super vibrant.  Our trip around the Whites a few days ago can attest to that. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

Glad you had a good trip.  I agree it has been about the best season I have ever seen.  Your post brings up my old pet peeve.  What is real and what is enhanced?  It seems almost everyone retouches photos.  Not like the old days when a color picture was developed it looked like what the eye would see.  It frustrates me because you can make any picture pop!  The more they are saturated the more ow's and ah's they get. That said the colors this year were super vibrant.  Our trip around the Whites a few days ago can attest to that. 

The problem I always find is the camera dulls out what is actually seen in my opinion, especially if the white balance is too cold. Anyway there are some horrible max saturation photos on social media and yet they get thousands of likes.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, eyewall said:

The problem I always find is the camera dulls out what is actually seen in my opinion, especially if the white balance is too cold. Anyway there are some horrible max saturation photos on social media and yet they get thousands of likes.

A ton of people talk about that.  How their camera or iPhone doesn’t do the scene justice of what they are seeing.  A lot of people get frustrated by it.  Like “this tree is literally glowing red in front of me but then I take a shot with the phone and it looks so bland.”

Link to comment
Share on other sites

44 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

That's not a bad upslope look early-mid next week.  Tons of time, but that looks like it could produce meaningful snow and a decent snowmaking window for the early season starters.

One of these troughs will produce eventually.  Just going to see them swinging through. Sooner or later with deepening wave lengths something will slow down and create a more prolonged flow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

That's not a bad upslope look early-mid next week.  Tons of time, but that looks like it could produce meaningful snow and a decent snowmaking window for the early season starters.

That signal for snow has actually been on the GFS for at least a week now, and that’s pretty impressive work at 2+ weeks out for a deterministic output if it remains steady and comes to fruition.  The key factor is of course that overall trough moving through the area, which the ensembles show.  If you’ve got a trough bringing reasonably cool air into the area, and a surface low that sets up shop in (or even just passes through) the Maine/Maritimes region, you’re certainly talking snow potential at this time of year in the Northern Greens.

As a skier, I generally find the GFS great with these northerly systems around here that don’t require complicated phasing or lots of other marginal nuances.  I guess every model is going to be better with those setups vs. the more complicated ones, but the GFS ease of accessibility, output, robustness, and reliability just puts it out front for me when it comes to scheduling.  Two weeks out is a lot to ask, but we’re getting into the realm of one week, where one can certainly start checking their schedule to accommodate the potential.  Sometimes it ends up just being a dusting or a coating, but with the potential there it’s good to plan ahead.  The couple rounds of snow we’ve had so far this season haven’t really been at the level to think about getting the boards ready, but this next one is a different setup as currently shown.

We’ll see which direction this heads over the next week, but the BTV NWS does have the possibility noted in their most recent discussion:

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

1026 AM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

As of 325 AM EDT Wednesday

...higher terrain snow possible early next week as the cold pool aloft and upper trough drop into the area.

FeelTheMagicOfTheMountains.jpg.40f55f32171f95d1485834088e8ebc86.jpg

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The colors are almost peak in my hood.  If the wind and rain had held off for another few days we would achieved that but this is as good as it is going to get.

More importantly is the upcoming rain event.  If we get around 3" of rain this would be the biggest event of the past few years.  I went back to 2019 but could not find a single day with a total near this high.  I'm sure certain isolated areas have had more with multiple thunderstorms in 24 hours but at least not at our casa.

Foliage Oct 13 2022.jpg

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

...Vermont...

...Addison County...
Hanksville                   1.72 in   0531 AM 10/14   44.26N/72.98W/1660
Salisbury                    1.45 in   0537 AM 10/14   43.88N/73.16W/383
Addison                      1.43 in   0536 AM 10/14   44.08N/73.27W/341
1 N Ferrisburg               1.43 in   0540 AM 10/14   44.21N/73.25W/162
ADDISON                      1.38 in   0535 AM 10/14   44.09N/73.32W/134
Vergennes                    1.35 in   0500 AM 10/14   44.17N/73.25W/194
Monkton                      1.32 in   0539 AM 10/14   44.26N/73.10W/449
Middlebury                   1.16 in   0540 AM 10/14   44.00N/73.17W/400
Middlebury Airport           0.93 in   0535 AM 10/14   43.98N/73.10W/458
Brooksville                  0.76 in   0530 AM 10/14   44.06N/73.17W/272

...Caledonia County...
Danville                     1.96 in   0530 AM 10/14   44.46N/72.10W/944
Wheelock                     1.55 in   0535 AM 10/14   44.56N/72.09W/1257
Danville                     1.48 in   0535 AM 10/14   44.42N/72.06W/1037

...Chittenden County...
North Underhill              2.41 in   0540 AM 10/14   44.59N/72.92W/961
Underhill                    2.14 in   0540 AM 10/14   44.54N/72.94W/918
Jericho                      2.13 in   0537 AM 10/14   44.45N/72.92W/826
Essex Jct                    2.02 in   0536 AM 10/14   44.51N/73.06W/486
Milton                       1.95 in   0530 AM 10/14   44.64N/73.05W/777
HINESBURG                    1.93 in   0535 AM 10/14   44.34N/73.11W/524
Westford                     1.81 in   0538 AM 10/14   44.63N/73.04W/849
Milton                       1.73 in   0530 AM 10/14   44.62N/73.15W/311
Essex Junction               1.72 in   0502 AM 10/14   44.50N/73.13W/342
Milton                       1.62 in   0535 AM 10/14   44.60N/73.15W/206
Charlotte                    1.62 in   0540 AM 10/14   44.27N/73.31W/91
Burlington Intl Airport      1.59 in   0502 AM 10/14   44.47N/73.15W/331

...Essex County...
Nulhegan                     1.16 in   0525 AM 10/14   44.77N/71.70W/1245
Granby                       0.82 in   0530 AM 10/14   44.58N/71.78W/1484

...Franklin County...
1.8 NE East Berkshire        1.88 in   0445 AM 10/14   44.96N/72.70W/410
Georgia                      1.85 in   0535 AM 10/14   44.73N/73.12W/393
East Berkshire (VTWAC)       1.06 in   0540 AM 10/14   44.94N/72.71W/440

...Grand Isle County...
Grand Isle                   1.94 in   0536 AM 10/14   44.73N/73.31W/193
Alburgh                      1.23 in   0530 AM 10/14   44.96N/73.25W/120

...Lamoille County...
1 SE Smugglers Notch         2.77 in   0540 AM 10/14   44.53N/72.78W/1622
Jeffersonville               2.51 in   0538 AM 10/14   44.64N/72.82W/659
Elmore                       2.11 in   0448 AM 10/14   44.54N/72.53W/1164
Morrisville-Stowe State Airp 1.98 in   0454 AM 10/14   44.53N/72.62W/742
Stowe                        1.83 in   0530 AM 10/14   44.49N/72.68W/800
0.8 W Johnson (VTWAC)        1.65 in   0538 AM 10/14   44.64N/72.69W/550

...Orange County...
Braintree                    1.62 in   0535 AM 10/14   44.00N/72.72W/1650
West Topsham                 1.52 in   0530 AM 10/14   44.16N/72.31W/1759
0.7 NW Union Village         1.30 in   0530 AM 10/14   43.79N/72.26W/415
1.2 NE Randolph              1.07 in   0455 AM 10/14   43.93N/72.66W/645
Fairlee                      1.04 in   0538 AM 10/14   43.92N/72.17W/833

...Orleans County...
Greensboro                   2.09 in   0535 AM 10/14   44.60N/72.31W/4973
Greensboro                   1.86 in   0530 AM 10/14   44.63N/72.28W/2004
Brownington                  1.12 in   0530 AM 10/14   44.84N/72.17W/1315
1.8 SE North Troy            0.50 in   0530 AM 10/14   44.97N/72.39W/560

...Rutland County...
Brandon                      1.68 in   0530 AM 10/14   43.82N/73.06W/561
Shrewsbury                   1.65 in   0535 AM 10/14   43.50N/72.82W/1699
Wallingford                  1.60 in   0536 AM 10/14   43.43N/72.99W/600
Danby                        1.51 in   0535 AM 10/14   43.33N/73.05W/1400
Danby                        1.35 in   0535 AM 10/14   43.35N/72.98W/667
Killington                   1.16 in   0535 AM 10/14   43.62N/72.77W/7906
Rutland Airport              1.10 in   0538 AM 10/14   43.52N/72.95W/757

...Washington County...
Northfield                   1.91 in   0536 AM 10/14   44.14N/72.66W/1277
4.5 S Waterbury              1.48 in   0500 AM 10/14   44.28N/72.74W/542
Montpelier Airport           1.46 in   0540 AM 10/14   44.20N/72.57W/1132
Northfield                   1.44 in   0530 AM 10/14   44.14N/72.66W/823
Montpelier                   1.44 in   0530 AM 10/14   44.29N/72.58W/571
Worcester                    1.33 in   0539 AM 10/14   44.38N/72.58W/1374
CABOT                        1.15 in   0530 AM 10/14   44.39N/72.27W/1912

...Windsor County...
North Pomfret                1.93 in   0536 AM 10/14   43.72N/72.51W/1230
Gaysville                    1.62 in   0535 AM 10/14   43.78N/72.70W/702
Springfield Airport          1.51 in   0506 AM 10/14   43.35N/72.52W/739
Weston                       1.50 in   0530 AM 10/14   43.27N/72.78W/1509
Weathersfield                1.49 in   0530 AM 10/14   43.40N/72.48W/1182
Springfield                  1.38 in   0530 AM 10/14   43.29N/72.53W/839
2 NW Andover                 1.38 in   0540 AM 10/14   43.31N/72.74W/2242
Rochester                    1.37 in   0530 AM 10/14   43.89N/72.77W/2040
&&
Link to comment
Share on other sites

We're a bit north of 1.5" and the last big charge of RA is just arriving, so still a chance to reach 2".  Oddity in the Sandy River flow.  The gauge in Mercer, near the confluence with the Kennebec, had 168 cfs (median is 259) while the gauge in Madrid, 6 miles from the river's source on the east slope of Saddleback, had 1,710 cfs at the same time, leaping up from 7 cfs before this event began.  I see the downstream flow topping out at 6-8k cfs, but it is odd when the flow at ~40 sq. mi. is 10x the flow at the full 570 sq. mi. watershed.

Lights have blinked 4-5 times during the past hour, too short to kick in the genny but enough to mess with computer and TV.  Gusts probably 35 or so, good for one good house creak.  Rain is hitting windows on 3 sides of the house - only the NW-facing glass is (mostly) dry, just a few wind-swirled droplets.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Ha this was oddly weird.

First time I have ever noticed this station reporting to Cocorahs.  That's my general area NW of village center and my rain total at about the same time this morning.  Looks like he's up Week's Hill Road a bit.

J.Spin taking the VT top total so far at 2.67".

Huh.thumb.jpg.74808f7531b51833b0f21c58c9c90a24.jpg

That’s interesting about that CoCoRaHS station – it’s funny because the same thing happened to me a few weeks back.  You posted a map with the personal weather stations, and I learned that our neighbors down at the end of the street have one.  That’s literally 2 to 3 houses away, so there’s remote data online that will be essentially representative of our site.  It obviously won’t be able to do snowfall, but it’s been pretty nice to check on temperatures and liquid.  The liquid catch has been right on with our Stratus the few times I’ve checked, but it doesn’t look like it did so well in the case of this storm.

On that note, this system pushed rainfall past 40” on the calendar year here at our site, and with that, we’re about 3-4” behind average pace.  I do see that there’s another 0.20” in the gauge now, so it looks like 2.87” liquid will be the storm total unless something else pops up before we clear out.  It does feel like we’re getting into the more reliable orographic season now though, vs. the “hit or miss” convective season.

Orographics.jpg.b1d9afda0ae7fedb3448acd0f434ae7e.jpg

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, alex said:

Just about 3" here, but double that on the rockpile, where the Ammonoouc head is. My trails are flooded, no way to go around the entire property. Fortunately didn't make it to the houses. Cool to watch...

98D9B5F6-33E5-462E-93B5-3FD5BE305C37.jpeg

The upper SSE facing slopes of the Pesidentials (like the 3-5K spots at and above treeline) had to see more than a half a foot of water.  It's topographical spot that would've condensed better than radar echoes showed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...