NNE Cold Season Thread 2022/2023

[borderwx]

A little brisk this morning for the dog run, nice views of May snow dusting




.

[#NoPoles]

Temp at whitefield Airport was 19 degrees when I checked it around 7am. Lots of frost on the vehicles and grass. I was in Littleton yesterday evening and places like Shaws and Tractor Supply were loading up all the plants on outside display and bringing them in the store. 

Hopefully no more of this for a few months.

[J.Spin]

On 9/22/2022 at 9:17 AM, bwt3650 said:

Below freezing temps, first flakes possible tonight and the return of snow on the GFS clown range.  I figured I'd start the thread from the snowiest place in the east with hopes that leads to a great NNE snow season.  If it winds up being crap, I'll never start one again and just blame phin.

 

On 9/22/2022 at 12:14 PM, J.Spin said:

Nice, thanks for starting this up, and well put on the snow stuff.  Your comment on the crap season got me wondering how Jay Peak actually did in that horrendous 2015-2016 season, so I checked the historical data on their website and Tony Crocker’s website.

 

SNOWFALL (INCHES)

2020-2021       291"

2019-2020       252"

2018-2019       423"

2017-2018       378"

2016-2017       491"

2015-2016       205"

2014-2015       373"

2013-2014       317"

2012-2013       362"

2011-2012       254"

2010-2011       374"

2009-2010       293"

2008-2009       368"

2007-2008       417"

2006-2007       409"

2005-2006       387"

2004-2005       334"

2003-2004       266"

2002-2003       268"

2001-2002       305"

2000-2001       581"

1999-2000       465"

1998-1999       305"

1997-1998       355"

1996-1997       407"

1995-1996       389"

They still broke 200”, and that season had to bring together a seriously impressive collision of factors to really bottom out on snowfall in the Northern Greens like that.  We’ve certainly got the relatively low annual snowfall variance going on around here, and analysis on my data set indicates that 2015-2016 was bottom 1% of seasons.  So hopefully we’ve paid our dues for quite a long time with that one, and Phin is safe.

Looking at the Jay Peak data, the past couple of seasons have actually been below average, so an uptick wouldn’t be too surprising – based on the data from the past 25+ seasons, it doesn’t like look like they typically see more than two sub-300” seasons in a row.

I accidentally clicked on the start of this thread and read the initial couple of posts about Jay Peak and the potential for the quality of the winter, and since we’re just about at the end of the typical snow season, it seemed like a good time to follow up on those posts.  The resort reported 353” of snow for the season, so indeed they rebounded from the previous couple of sub-300” seasons and as their track record would suggest, they didn’t end up with three of those in a row.  All in all, their season snowfall wound up within a few % of average.  We were a touch low here at our site with 150.1” of snow on the season, but that’s still probably within 5% deviation from average.  And, the BTV data indicate that their snowfall was extremely tight to their average (I’m seeing 72.8” this season relative to a 72.7” average listed at their site).

It’s interesting to note that with season snowfall being very tight to average at those three somewhat disparate sites, some locations within the triangle of geography they form didn’t quite reach average snowfall.  Perhaps it’s just the highest elevations of the Bolton-Stowe-Smugg’s stretch of the spine, but the resorts there reported 241”-221”-223” respectively, which is definitely well off their average pace.  I was wondering if that stretch of the spine saw the greatest deviation from average snowfall in the state, but even with some of those larger systems that hit the central and southern parts of the state, those ski areas seemed to come in below their averages.

It wasn’t an especially upslope-heavy season, so maybe that threw off the numbers in some of the higher elevations.  Perhaps we had enough synoptic snow at our site to make up for the leaner amounts of upslope snowfall, but the lower elevations around here seemed to be closer to average snowfall than what the resorts are reporting.  Unfortunately, I don’t really know the averages for the low elevations sites in the state, but I see that Greensboro 3.9 NNE CoCoRaHS site coming in with roughly 170” of snowfall.  I have to think the average snowfall there can’t be too much higher than that if they’re off the spine, but the CoCoRaHS site information data does indicate the elevation there is over 2,000’, which would probably bump it up somewhat.  If the snowfall there is mostly from synoptic systems, then maybe this was a typical snowfall season in that area. 

There were actually a number of sites in the state with totals in that 150”-170” range, and plenty of Vermont CoCoRaHS sites over 100”, which probably represents at least a decent season for a lot of them.

[powderfreak]

16 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

I accidentally clicked on the start of this thread and read the initial couple of posts about Jay Peak and the potential for the quality of the winter, and since we’re just about at the end of the typical snow season, it seemed like a good time to follow up on those posts.  The resort reported 353” of snow for the season, so indeed they rebounded from the previous couple of sub-300” seasons and as their track record would suggest, they didn’t end up with three of those in a row.  All in all, their season snowfall wound up within a few % of average.

It’s interesting to note that with season snowfall being very tight to average at those three somewhat disparate sites, some locations within the triangle of geography they form didn’t quite reach average snowfall.  Perhaps it’s just the highest elevations of the Bolton-Stowe-Smugg’s stretch of the spine, but the resorts there reported 241”-221”-223” respectively, which is definitely well off their average pace.  I was wondering if that stretch of the spine saw the greatest deviation from average snowfall in the state, but even with some of those larger systems that hit the central and southern parts of the state, those ski areas seemed to come in below their averages.

Add in Sugarbush with exactly 200"

Mad River Glen has removed their snowfall but I believe they were 186".  Killington 198".

So you get something like this (and this year is I believe the largest difference I can remember between Jay Peak and the rest in terms of percentage).

Jay Peak... 353"

Smuggs... 223"

Stowe... 221"

Bolton... 241"

MRG... 186"

Sugarbush... 200"

Killington... 198"

I really do not want to start a "I don't believe Jay Peak" discussion because it doesn't get us anywhere.  I do believe they get the most snow.  It's also very windy and I know people who work in their marketing/comms.  I also know they do not have any standardized way of measuring and it's really a guesstimate.  Again, I have no real issue with that.  Stowe for a long time was guesstimate with no true data point and I do believe it inflated the ski area's snowfall going back 10-30 years ago.

Let's think for a second who has actual measuring set-ups, snowstake cameras, and real data points.  Stowe has a live cam and we have the High Road and Barnes Camp snow plots (every single inch reported is physically measured, there is zero estimation). Smuggs has one now (not live cam but there's a physical spot where they measure snow most of the time in the same spot at the top of Sterling from the photos I've seen). Mad River Glen has a live snow cam.  Sugarbush has a live snow cam.  Killington has a snow plot at 4,000ft.

I have been convinced over time that there is zero doubt the places with actual data points have seen snowfall totals come down a bit over the years.  Sure, it hasn't been a great decade of snow for NNE but I won't lie, it becomes harder and harder to just straightforward accept big differences without some sort of controlled plot where you measure the same snow in the same place over and over and over.

Another thing is snowfall ranges.  Notice the areas that get rid of the "range" of snowfall and just put one number.  The one number is often a single data point or blend of data points.  The areas that give a range of snowfall, and always add up the highest number will greatly out-pace the rest because you are ALWAYS adding in the absolute maximum snowfall one might find on the snowiest or drifted spot on the mountain.  In following various data points around Mansfield, I am convinced offering a range of snowfall inflates annual snowfall unless you take the median to create a seasonal tally.

And just for context, here's how guesstimates go (this is what used to happen at Stowe a decade ago): It snows.  Someone pops a ruler into the snow in the parking lot.  Gets 5".  Then just arbitrarily adds 3" for the upper mountain.  Snow report says 5-8".  8" gets added to the seasonal total.  Now, no one complains or really notices because hey, with drifting and stuff, it feels like 5-8".

Now, what if you actually had a plot up high.  You get 5" base area but only 6.5" up top?  Sure you could say 5-8" and it still skis like that.  We often round down unless we get closer to a full inch.  So previously that guesstimate of 5-8" (which feels ok to most people too, because who really cares? It's fresh snow in the ballpark) now turns into 5-6" because you have a sheltered non-wind affected spot.  It's not drifted and it's not scoured.  All the sudden you are adding 6" to seasonal tally because it's controlled, instead of 5-8" and adding 8" to total.

I'm not sure if this is making sense... but I have noticed a fairly sharp containment of snowfall at ski areas when it is not "estimated" as a range.  If you are to pick one single value that describes snowfall across a mountain, you are aiming for a median value as to not piss off customers.  So seasonal snowfall totals are now adding up closer to median values instead of the absolute top range of every single possible snowfall.

Add in that the snowfall does vary quite a bit and say at Stowe you ski around and go from Bypass Chutes that ski like 10" of feathers at 3,600ft.  But the High Road Plot at 3,000ft shows 7".  We are putting 7" into the seasonal tally when in the past the Snow Reporter might have said 6-10" of new snow (and added in the 10" of fluff to the season total).

I believe that mountains like Sugarbush, MRG, Stowe and Smuggs are all starting to measure a single value more and more, and it leads to a more controlled seasonal total.  Watch it next season.  Watch the places that *always* have a larger range in snowfall totals on the report and then count the top number.  They will outpace the others almost exponentially.

I've watched almost two decades of snowfalls and have estimated (wrongly at times) and measured multiple data plots for a decade now... and many snowfalls do not have the severe elevation dependent gaps that are often reported.  Especially synoptic snowstorms.  The public often doesn't even realize it either.  If it is a synoptic snowstorm where temps are below freezing and there is 4" in the parking lots from mid-level lifting mechanisms... there's probably only 4-5" up high too (you got 0.40" water overnight and 4"... the upper mountain did not get 7" on 0.70" water).  But if you are guesstimating and in the habit of just adding 3" to the base area snowfall, it will pad numbers quickly.  That same overnight synoptic WAA snow reported as 4-7" likely measures 4-5".

 

[CoastalWx]

I'll start it. Jay Peak always sticks out. Tossed. I know where they are..the Jay cloud and all that..but time and time again...it just doesn't pass the smell test. Kudos to Stowe who do things right. 

[powderfreak]

I guess in all that writing... my biggest take away is be very wary when you see every single snow report update showing a good sized 2-4" range in snowfall because that's likely just estimates and the first number is likely spot on for the base area, but the upper number can be dubious and compounds on itself.

Take a larger synoptic snowstorm that starts Sunday afternoon...

Mon AM... 5" parking lot, grooming team says it's snowy, blowing around 6"+ likely... report calls it 5-8"

Mon PM... 5" more parking lot... skied deep and fun... easily felt like another 6+"... add another 5-7" (storm total 15" so far!)

Tues AM... 3" wind blown parking lot... groomers are excited on radio but can't tell, it's been snowing sideways all night, another 6" easy (this happens when it all starts swirling around)... call it 3-6" and say unsure but could be more.  Storm total is now 21" by adding up the top ranges.  Parking lot though is only 13".

Tues PM... maybe add another couple inches or so of wind blown snow showers... 1-3" or 2-4" additional. 

Now your at a 14" - 24" storm range total from a synoptic storm.  Which quite honestly in my experience, is not how it plays out if you measure. Sub-freezing synoptic storms do not give 10" ranges with elevation.  The 14" is correct but the estimating up high by adding a few more inches each time gets a bit much.  Reality is probably 14 - 18" but 24" gets added to the seasonal total.  And honestly, not many skiers will notice a difference between 18" and 24", it's a good snowstorm.  Everyone is stoked.  Who cares. No harm no foul.

But that is exactly how adding 2-3" each period for "summit snow" can really start to escalate seasonal totals.

[powderfreak]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'll start it. Jay Peak always sticks out. Tossed. I know where they are..the Jay cloud and all that..but time and time again...it just doesn't pass the smell test. Kudos to Stowe who do things right. 

Each individual event is within the possibility of reason as a stand alone... but it does get compounded over the course of a season. 

I saw it first hand at Stowe when we used to do it that way when I started and even the first couple of seasons before I realized what was happening.  It's the estimating of new snowfall ranges and adding up the top number.

And I think that change has happened at a lot of other local resorts too so you are seeing snowfall amounts compress a bit.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Each individual event is within the possibility of reason as a stand alone... but it does get compounded over the course of a season. 

I saw it first hand at Stowe when we used to do it that way when I started and even the first couple of seasons before I realized what was happening.  It's the estimating of new snowfall ranges and adding up the top number.

And I think that change has happened at a lot of other local resorts too so you are seeing snowfall amounts compress a bit.

I've always suspected their amounts, and it was confirmed by others who skied too. I'm aware of mesoscale nuances, but they aren't all that far from you either. Maybe you can argue they may do better on NW flow upslope, but I think you could make a case for those W-WSW lake streamers plowing into Mansfield as being better for you too. If you add it up, the stark differences between Stowe and Jay don't make sense to me. 

[powderfreak]

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I've always suspected their amounts, and it was confirmed by others who skied too. I'm aware of mesoscale nuances, but they aren't all that far from you either. Maybe you can argue they may do better on NW flow upslope, but I think you could make a case for those W-WSW lake streamers plowing into Mansfield as being better for you too. If you add it up, the stark differences between Stowe and Jay don't make sense to me. 

Its definitely a topic amongst many of the weather fanatics up this way and I think even the NWS guys/gals. I will say the mystic is what gets it going too.  Everyone knows they get the most snow and it makes sense to me conceptually.  Just not the amount of difference.  But like I said, I think it's a function of collection differences and how one arrives to their seasonal snowfall numbers.  They absolutely do better on NW flow, but that was lacking this season.

The NW flow upslope spots did quite poorly.  Underhill spots had 77" and 83" this past year, like 36" less than over here in Stowe Village (because of largely SE flow synoptic).  In like 2010-11 which was huge upslope, those spots did about 200".  Last year was an interesting one as the differences likely shouldn't have been as big either between the regions as there wasn't a standout NW flow.  So like Killington had 200", same as Sugarbush and Mansfield only 20" more at 220".  Fairly unified without big mesoscale influences. 

Meso-scale snow was much diminished this past winter, which is why the lower elevations were closer to normal than the summits (J.Spin touched on that nicely).  Much of the lift was mid-level synoptic driven outside of the influences topography and that spreads wealth at all elevations.

[mreaves]

 

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I've always suspected their amounts, and it was confirmed by others who skied too. I'm aware of mesoscale nuances, but they aren't all that far from you either. Maybe you can argue they may do better on NW flow upslope, but I think you could make a case for those W-WSW lake streamers plowing into Mansfield as being better for you too. If you add it up, the stark differences between Stowe and Jay don't make sense to me. 

 

53 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Its definitely a topic amongst many of the weather fanatics up this way and I think even the NWS guys/gals. I will say the mystic is what gets it going too.  Everyone knows they get the most snow and it makes sense to me conceptually.  Just not the amount of difference.  But like I said, I think it's a function of collection differences and how one arrives to their seasonal snowfall numbers.  They absolutely do better on NW flow, but that was lacking this season.

The NW flow upslope spots did quite poorly.  Underhill spots had 77" and 83" this past year, like 36" less than over here in Stowe Village (because of largely SE flow synoptic).  In like 2010-11 which was huge upslope, those spots did about 200".  Last year was an interesting one as the differences likely shouldn't have been as big either between the regions as there wasn't a standout NW flow.  So like Killington had 200", same as Sugarbush and Mansfield only 20" more at 220".  Fairly unified without big mesoscale influences. 

Meso-scale snow was much diminished this past winter, which is why the lower elevations were closer to normal than the summits (J.Spin touched on that nicely).  Much of the lift was mid-level synoptic driven outside of the influences topography and that spreads wealth at all elevations.

You guys pitch in and I will move into @bwt3650's condo for the winter just to measure correctly.  It's a sacrifice but I'm willing to do it for science.  And if I have to go up some during the summer and see how things look at the golf course, I'm willing to make that sacrifice too.

[J.Spin]

23 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Everyone knows they get the most snow and it makes sense to me conceptually.  Just not the amount of difference.  But like I said, I think it's a function of collection differences and how one arrives to their seasonal snowfall numbers.  They absolutely do better on NW flow, but that was lacking this season.

The NW flow upslope spots did quite poorly.  Underhill spots had 77" and 83" this past year, like 36" less than over here in Stowe Village (because of largely SE flow synoptic).  In like 2010-11 which was huge upslope, those spots did about 200".

Meso-scale snow was much diminished this past winter, which is why the lower elevations were closer to normal than the summits (J.Spin touched on that nicely).  Much of the lift was mid-level synoptic driven outside of the influences topography and that spreads wealth at all elevations.

I’m very much on board with all the thoughts you’ve put in your posts on this topic, and I’m glad you were able to add in the 2022-2023 season snowfall from those additional resorts to show where they came in.  I added a couple more that I could find to fill out the north to south list along the spine a bit more.  These numbers get very difficult to find once the season is done, so it’s good to have it here just for reference.

Jay Peak: 353”

Smuggler’s Notch: 223”

Stowe: 221”

Bolton Valley: 241”

Mad River Glen: 186”

Sugarbush: 200”

Pico: 198”

Killington: 198”

Bromley: 152”

Magic Mountain: 150”

Mount Snow: 156”

The thing I don’t get though, which stems from the main discussion I was having with bwt about seeing how the quality of this past winter turned out for Jay Peak, is comparing the total snowfall from this winter to that of the previous two.  Actually, they must have not have had the 2021-2022 season snowfall data available back when I made that post, but they do now, and that season had already halted a potential streak of three sub-300” seasons.  Here are the numbers from their mountain data page:

2019-2020: 252”

2020-2021: 291”

2021-2022: 311”

2022-2023: 359”

I get it that people have issues with the rigor of Jay Peak’s snowfall measurements, but their data still indicate that they had a roughly average snowfall season (similar to what BTV observed, and what I observed at my site).  It’s not as if the resort artificially jacks up their snowfall numbers to get them above 300” every season, since there are literally two recent seasons in a row that were below 300”. So, whatever methodology they’re using for measurement, it’s a big leap to assume that suddenly, this season, it ceased to be internally consistent to a massive degree.

I noted how it was surprising to see Jay Peak coming in with roughly average snowfall when the rest of the resorts to the south were clearly running below average.  It is surprising, but can we really dismiss it?  Perhaps they did get a number of hits that just didn’t catch the resorts farther south. We know that we can’t really see the radar very well there, and bwt sure did seem to have a heck of a lot of snow at his placed based on the images sent in to the forum.  If the images we saw were substantially below average, then imagine what average looks like.

[CoastalWx]

3 hours ago, J.Spin said:

I’m very much on board with all the thoughts you’ve put in your posts on this topic, and I’m glad you were able to add in the 2022-2023 season snowfall from those additional resorts to show where they came in.  I added a couple more that I could find to fill out the north to south list along the spine a bit more.  These numbers get very difficult to find once the season is done, so it’s good to have it here just for reference.

Jay Peak: 353”

Smuggler’s Notch: 223”

Stowe: 221”

Bolton Valley: 241”

Mad River Glen: 186”

Sugarbush: 200”

Pico: 198”

Killington: 198”

Bromley: 152”

Magic Mountain: 150”

Mount Snow: 156”

The thing I don’t get though, which stems from the main discussion I was having with bwt about seeing how the quality of this past winter turned out for Jay Peak, is comparing the total snowfall from this winter to that of the previous two.  Actually, they must have not have had the 2021-2022 season snowfall data available back when I made that post, but they do now, and that season had already halted a potential streak of three sub-300” seasons.  Here are the numbers from their mountain data page:

2019-2020: 252”

2020-2021: 291”

2021-2022: 311”

2022-2023: 359”

I get it that people have issues with the rigor of Jay Peak’s snowfall measurements, but their data still indicate that they had a roughly average snowfall season (similar to what BTV observed, and what I observed at my site).  It’s not as if the resort artificially jacks up their snowfall numbers to get them above 300” every season, since there are literally two recent seasons in a row that were below 300”. So, whatever methodology they’re using for measurement, it’s a big leap to assume that suddenly, this season, it ceased to be internally consistent to a massive degree.

I noted how it was surprising to see Jay Peak coming in with roughly average snowfall when the rest of the resorts to the south were clearly running below average.  It is surprising, but can we really dismiss it?  Perhaps they did get a number of hits that just didn’t catch the resorts farther south. We know that we can’t really see the radar very well there, and bwt sure did seem to have a heck of a lot of snow at his placed based on the images sent in to the forum.  If the images we saw were substantially below average, then imagine what average looks like.

My comment is not about this season. In every season, they have some head scratching totals that do not pass the sniff test. Nobody is doubting that they get some of, if not the best snow in the east...but many think they get a little excited when they measure. I know people who ski there and also confirm some of the so called reported amounts seem suspect.

[powderfreak]

On 6/1/2023 at 2:10 PM, J.Spin said:

So, whatever methodology they’re using for measurement, it’s a big leap to assume that suddenly, this season, it ceased to be internally consistent to a massive degree.

I noted how it was surprising to see Jay Peak coming in with roughly average snowfall when the rest of the resorts to the south were clearly running below average.  It is surprising, but can we really dismiss it?  Perhaps they did get a number of hits that just didn’t catch the resorts farther south. We know that we can’t really see the radar very well there, and bwt sure did seem to have a heck of a lot of snow at his placed based on the images sent in to the forum.  If the images we saw were substantially below average, then imagine what average looks like.

There were some personnel changes in the snow reporter world up there, though we are friends that can joke with each other, and I’m not pinning it him at all ha ha.  But I see what you’re saying J.Spin… even if it were high by 20% due to compounding ranges, it would be consistent over time.

Who knows, I just know I don’t remember a series of events or even setups where Jay got like vastly more snow last year.  BWT had a ton of snow for sure (honestly hard to tell difference of 180” and 240”, it’s all a lot at that point).  His pack at 1800ft was big, but I think of 1800ft on Mansfield and having 4 feet on the ground sounds about right when there’s 90” up top.

I don’t know. It’s always interesting. I do think they like the mystic too. More so than controlling the measurement, this keeps people chatting.  Sometimes it’s just hard to wrap a head around 120” more inches (think ten addition snowstorms of a foot) in this particular season when there wasn’t a lot of upslope… and snowfall was synoptic so there wasn’t the usual huge increase in inches from lower elevations to upper elevations.

Thats the key to me. The upper elevations were not favored, it was uniform, so if the base and lower elevations were fairly normal snowfall… and one applied the usual elevation multiplier… the summit snowfall could be overstated and made to seem normal too?

The more I think about it, the more logical it becomes. When I started Stowe was measuring base area snow and just blanket adding 2-3” for summit. Every event the snow often falls within the range so no one notices… but what if the elevation multiplier one season was 1.3 vs 2.0 another season?  One year 180” base area brings 360” summit, another only 234” summit?

This season we had a low multiplier year play out. Valleys to mid-slopes was near normal, but summits solidly below normal. What if there’s something there about the multiplier effect and estimating 4,000ft snowfall from 1,500-2,000ft snowfall?

 

[mreaves]

Weren’t they catching storms that seemed to hit the St.Lawrence Valley this year? I seem to remember Montreal getting in on some good stuff. 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, mreaves said:

Weren’t they catching storms that seemed to hit the St.Lawrence Valley this year? I seem to remember Montreal getting in on some good stuff. 

They probably did, which is why they’d get more snow, just how much more though? The Cocorahs stations nearby don’t show much of note. The Westfield site at 1,100ft is only a few miles as the row flies and a normally a good barometer. They’ve put up some big snowfall totals; had 130” this year which almost seemed a bit below average.

I seem to remember most of the bigger storms this year being to our south in S/C VT.

Again, I don’t even think it’s on purpose, it’s just a function of estimating snowfall as many ski areas have done and some still do vs a controlled measurement in a singular location. 

[bwt3650]

I've always suspected their amounts, and it was confirmed by others who skied too. I'm aware of mesoscale nuances, but they aren't all that far from you either. Maybe you can argue they may do better on NW flow upslope, but I think you could make a case for those W-WSW lake streamers plowing into Mansfield as being better for you too. If you add it up, the stark differences between Stowe and Jay don't make sense to me. 

Jay gets the most snow in the east…period, no question. I’ve skied manfiejd and Jay in the same day and there is a difference. And south of there, they aren’t even in the same upslope ballpark. Jay will pull 6-8 on an overnight event 3 times a week, while even sugarbush is 2-3. It’s the frequency of the plus 1-2 that adds up over a 5 month long season. Plus add in a 3 degree temp diff at times with latitude. The only time anyone south of Mansfield cleans up on jay is synoptic or those lake streamers. Wind=snow in Vermont and you can’t possibly tell me the wind patterns are the same at Mansfield and Jay. The angle of the mountain is different and just wind holds alone would show the difference. Hell even stateside vs. the ridge sees a difference in snow totals. Burke is a similar distance from jay as Stowe and no one would argue they get half the snow at similar elevations.

Now, you want tell me their reported 350 is really 310; no argument. I think pf hit the nail on the head with the problem using a range and always adding the high number. I’ve always said they should get a plot and cam. They will always finish number one in the east, so show it off, even if it’s not as high a number as expected.


.

[bwt3650]

They probably did, which is why they’d get more snow, just how much more though? The Cocorahs stations nearby don’t show much of note. The Westfield site at 1,100ft is only a few miles as the row flies and a normally a good barometer. They’ve put up some big snowfall totals; had 130” this year which almost seemed a bit below average.
I seem to remember most of the bigger storms this year being to our south in S/C VT.
Again, I don’t even think it’s on purpose, it’s just a function of estimating snowfall as many ski areas have done and some still do vs a controlled measurement in a singular location. 

As you pointed out as the season closed out, north of sugarbush almost always changed back to snow this season and saved an absolute disaster during so many storms. Most of vt. was an inch of slop followed by freezing rain and then a change back to a dusting, where jay changed back to 4-6. Very odd this year, or lucky.

Early Dec started strong and went to absolute dog shit by the holidays…but that mid feb to late March run was very strong this year. There’s no question this year outperformed last year.


March 21, 2022 @ 2250’


March 26,2023 @ 1850’


.

[powderfreak]

13 hours ago, bwt3650 said:

Jay gets the most snow in the east…period, no question. I’ve skied manfiejd and Jay in the same day and there is a difference. And south of there, they aren’t even in the same upslope ballpark. Jay will pull 6-8 on an overnight event 3 times a week, while even sugarbush is 2-3. It’s the frequency of the plus 1-2 that adds up over a 5 month long season. Plus add in a 3 degree temp diff at times with latitude. The only time anyone south of Mansfield cleans up on jay is synoptic or those lake streamers. Wind=snow in Vermont and you can’t possibly tell me the wind patterns are the same at Mansfield and Jay. The angle of the mountain is different and just wind holds alone would show the difference. Hell even stateside vs. the ridge sees a difference in snow totals. Burke is a similar distance from jay as Stowe and no one would argue they get half the snow at similar elevations.

Now, you want tell me their reported 350 is really 310; no argument. I think pf hit the nail on the head with the problem using a range and always adding the high number. I’ve always said they should get a plot and cam. They will always finish number one in the east, so show it off, even if it’s not as high a number as expected.


.

We are on the same exact page. Those are my thoughts as well.  It would still easily be #1, it just might be a little more subdue if they had a consistent snow plot up high.  I saw that very effect here when we did it. A 330” average drops to like 275” or something, which is still a ton of snow and second to Jay.  My guess is like you said you’d see Jay go like 350” to 300” or low 3s.  Still the most.

In the end, the range snowfall on a snow report is often adding up the absolute maximum snowfall you might find on a mountain… and it might change from one part of the mountain to another depending on the event (which would be missed if measuring in same spot every time).

Also I think if Jay started putting one value on its snow report instead of the range, you’d see totals lower to meet expectations a bit better, as you wouldn’t put the Beyond Beaver Pond Glade snow total as the single number, but you would for a high end of the range.

 

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Jay got nowhere near 350”‘this season . In fact that total is an embarrassment to anyone who records data . Not sure what the hesitation is on calling them out . It’s not like they are 100 miles north of Stowe. NW flow underperformed this year in a big way and jay likes to pretend nobody would notice their measurements .  Stowe ended March with a very good snow pack Thanks to that firehose that gave them 32” . Which is consistent with that photo shared from 1900’ @ Jay Condo 
 

The topic is about their measurement quality ..period . They mine as well have someone wearing a clown outfit report this years total . Is there some big deal calling out someone who slant sticks ?

[bch2014]

8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Jay got nowhere near 350”‘this season . In fact that total is an embarrassment to anyone who records data . Not sure what the hesitation is on calling them out . It’s not like they are 100 miles north of Stowe. NW flow underperformed this year in a big way and jay likes to pretend nobody would notice their measurements . 
 

The topic is about their measurement quality ..period . They mine as well have someone wearing a clown outfit report this years total . 

Flip side is that it was one of the best seasons in recent memory for the Laurentians. Not sure the correlation between that area and Jay, but I was up at Tremblant in late February and the depths were impressive.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, bch2014 said:

Flip side is that it was one of the best seasons in recent memory for the Laurentians. Not sure the correlation between that area and Jay, but I was up at Tremblant in late February and the depths were impressive.

It was pretty clear for a good chunk of January  that storm track kept crushing areas 30-50 miles ++ NW of Jay  / VT border . Montreal on N crush city in January 

[bwt3650]

Jay got nowhere near 350”‘this season . In fact that total is an embarrassment to anyone who records data . Not sure what the hesitation is on calling them out . It’s not like they are 100 miles north of Stowe. NW flow underperformed this year in a big way and jay likes to pretend nobody would notice their measurements .  Stowe ended March with a very good snow pack Thanks to that firehose that gave them 32” . Which is consistent with that photo shared from 1900’ @ Jay Condo 
 
The topic is about their measurement quality ..period . They mine as well have someone wearing a clown outfit report this years total . Is there some big deal calling out someone who slant sticks ?

Ehh..you’re making it about someone intentionally going out there and measuring 9” and saying to the marketing team “ let’s go with 15 because no one would drive up here for just 9”. I don’t think that’s happening. It’s an incredibly windy mountain with a crazy micro climate and I think it’s just a matter of unscientific, inconsistent measuring along with using a range. And to be honest, most outside of a weather forum don’t give a shit. It snows anytime, for any reason or no reason at all there and it adds up over a long season. We are snow tools so we want to analyze it all, but in the end, once the base is over 3 feet, put 6 or put 18 on top and it all skis pretty damn good. Again, they one hundred percent get more than Mansfield. No question. It’s just an argument over how much.

I could try and put a live feed camera in my backyard if anyone knows a good one that’s not crazy expensive or complicated and come up with some sort of plot, but I’m not there every day of the winter to get consistent measurements. Retirement in less than 5 and youngest graduates in 9 so that will be the winter I’ll try and get an accurate first to last flake winter and see where it’s at.


.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

10 hours ago, bwt3650 said:

Ehh..you’re making it about someone intentionally going out there and measuring 9” and saying to the marketing team “ let’s go with 15 because no one would drive up here for just 9”. I don’t think that’s happening. It’s an incredibly windy mountain with a crazy micro climate and I think it’s just a matter of unscientific, inconsistent measuring along with using a range. And to be honest, most outside of a weather forum don’t give a shit. It snows anytime, for any reason or no reason at all there and it adds up over a long season. We are snow tools so we want to analyze it all, but in the end, once the base is over 3 feet, put 6 or put 18 on top and it all skis pretty damn good. Again, they one hundred percent get more than Mansfield. No question. It’s just an argument over how much.

I could try and put a live feed camera in my backyard if anyone knows a good one that’s not crazy expensive or complicated and come up with some sort of plot, but I’m not there every day of the winter to get consistent measurements. Retirement in less than 5 and youngest graduates in 9 so that will be the winter I’ll try and get an accurate first to last flake winter and see where it’s at.


.

They are claiming 50% more snow fell at jay then Stowe , when the January gradient was Montreal north.  If they put 350” out as a seasonal total they are either not smart  or knowingly inflating numbers . I’ll say the latter . Doesn’t have to be malicious or like your example made it sound but it’s off by a lot . It’s not really a steep mental hurdle for me to cross . This year sticks out much more than most others.  One can guess as to how this has come to pass , maybe they have a wink wink with their snow measured in a way and area they know gives bigger numbers and it’s been signed off on, my guess is not everyone is cool with it , but that whoever is running that part of the show hasn’t decided to report things in a way ..that represents in a more Accurate way ..what fell. Can only guess how it’s inflated .

And if anything , I never really paid much attention  to Jays numbers because while some looked a little high they get the most snow ..and nothing that I saw (could have missed something ) sticks out like this year . 50% more snow at jay than Stowe , and Stowe pulled a 32” on the March firehose and Nw events were less this year . It’s worth calling them out to me , this year they decided to really throw caution to the wind  . 
 

If one has no bias and no problem calling a spade a spade this one is easy . But I mean I don’t really care that much, it’s more if I make a point ..I will defend it ..while remaining open to any new info I missed 

 

 

[powderfreak]

I will say our snowfall runs the other way and I believe it’s on the low side for the top.  We leave inches on the table above 3kft. Which probably exacerbates the discrepancy.

I mean we measured 220” rounding down and averaging certain measurements. 220” got a 90” Stake depth? Ha.

Remember we only give oven value for snowfall. Not a range. So we are making sure that number blends data points.  Not just totaling the highest number.

We definitely have been moving the snowfall total away from mountain max and more toward the 2/3rds of the way up average with no measurements really occurring much above 3,000ft.  

Like if the hill gets 4” base, 7” at Cliff House… the High Rd plot is probably around 6” which is what report would say. Though 7” may have fallen for sure up higher.  It’s hard to compare between areas… because it’s designed to offer the skiers that day the best info, not in a post season comparison.  Like Sugarbush’s total is at 4000ft cam. Not everyone is comparing apples to apples.

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

PF, any idea what the mountains of Quebec pulled off this year , seems like they got a ton of synoptic snows and where basically on the cold side of most everything 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

PF, any idea what the mountains of Quebec pulled off this year , seems like they got a ton of synoptic snows and where basically on the cold side of most everything 

Good to look up… Tremblant had 258”.

Mont Sutton immediately north of Jay Peak just over the border showing 140” at base and 186” up high (354-472cm). I believe that’s below normal but in-line with past few years.

They top out at like 3,300ft I think?

But they do better NW flow and those events were lacking.

 

[powderfreak]

Sutton actually has some great snowfall records but they use their base snowfall and it’s in CM.

But one can see the past few winters have been lacking compared to the big run from 2016-2019.  Their 2015-16 winter is crap like everyone’s.

Just out of curiosity, those guys didn’t see a big boost this year over the previous years… matches what I’ve got for Mansfield as a run of meh-serviceable but below normal a bit.

 

[J.Spin]

Now that we’re into June, snowfall here in the valleys is likely complete, so I’ve put together the final numbers at our site for the 2022-2023 season.

Overall snowfall was a bit below average, but roughly in the ±5% range of the mean. As shown in the seasonal snowfall progression plot below, snowfall generally lagged a bit behind average pace before finally catching up from late February into March.  The lagging snowfall is not as big a factor once the winter snowpack is in place, but it’s still a knock against the season and would probably push it below a C average in the C- range if a grade were to be given.  I don’t think there’s too much of an argument for a D+, as the snow season/ski season were just too good for that.  The season snowfall rank of 9 puts it smack in the middle of the data set, which is another nod to the average nature of the season.

The seasonal snowfall progression plot nicely points out several parts of the season with excellent skiing as indicated by the plot areas with the steepest slopes.  The snowy period in mid-November was nice, and offered up some powder turns, but nothing outrageous for November.  Those four periods in mid-December, late-January, late February into Early March, and then mid-March were all excellent.  That mid-December period was especially great because the storms set up what felt almost like a midwinter base below the powder, and it was a period of top notch skiing during the holidays and right into Christmas week, which we haven’t seen too much in the past few seasons.

Being a rather ho-hum, average season, there weren’t too many records set for the site, but interestingly, this past January’s 14 snowstorms just snuck in for the record ahead of five other seasons with 13 storms.  The 12/31 storm gets that date because it’s when the snowfall technically started, but the bulk of the snowfall and all the snowfall observations were really in January, so it was a January storm in the records.  Interestingly, it wasn’t even a snowy January, but the storm frequency was there.  The only other record set was for latest accumulating snowfall and frozen precipitation on 5/17, which beat out the latest snow from the 2015-2016 season by a day.

 

 

Total Snowfall: 150.1”

Season Snowfall Rank: 9 of 17

October Snowfall: 0.0”

November Snowfall: 10.4”

December Snowfall: 30.6”

January Snowfall: 37.8”

February Snowfall: 27.9”

March Snowfall: 42.5”

April Snowfall: 0.6”

May Snowfall: 0.3”

 

Total Days with Snowfall: 104

October Days with Snowfall: 0

November Days with Snowfall: 13

December Days with Snowfall: 22

January Days with Snowfall: 23

February Days with Snowfall: 20

March Days with Snowfall: 19

April Days with Snowfall: 5

May Days with Snowfall: 2

 

Snowstorms: 55

October Storms: 0

November Storms: 9

December Storms: 9

January Storms: 14

February Storms: 12

March Storms: 9

April Storms: 1

May Storms: 1

 

Average Snowfall per Storm: 2.7”

 

Largest Storm:18.0”

2^nd Largest Storm: 14.0”

3^rd Largest Storm: 13.5”

4^th Largest Storm: 13.1”

5^th Largest Storm: 7.8”

Sum of 5 Largest Storms: 66.4”

Storms ≥10": 4

Date of Largest Storm: 3/13/23

 

First Frozen Precipitation: 11/13/23

First Accumulating Snowfall: 11/13/23

1^st 1" Storm: 11/16/23

1^st 2" Storm: 11/16/23

1^st 3" Storm: 11/16/23

1^st 4" Storm: 11/16/23

1^st 6" Storm: 11/16/23

1^st 8" Storm: 12/16/23

1^st 10" Storm: 12/16/23

1^st 12" Storm: 12/16/23

Last Accumulating Snowfall: 5/17/23

Last Frozen Precipitation: 5/17/23

Length of Snowfall Season: 186 days

 

Start of Season Snowpack: 12/12/23

Days with >0" Snowpack: 144

Days with ≥1" Snowpack: 127

Days with ≥6" Snowpack: 91

Days with ≥12" Snowpack: 55

Days with ≥24" Snowpack: 4

Days with ≥36" Snowpack: 0

Max Snow Depth: 28.5”

Date of Max Snow Depth: 2/16/23

End of Season Snowpack: 4/13/23

Continuous Snowpack Season: 124 days

Snow-Depth Days: 1375.5 inch-days

 

Total liquid equivalent: 26.09”

Frozen liquid equivalent: 12.59”

% Frozen L.E.: 48.3%

Total Snow/Total Liquid Ratio: 5.8

Total Water Content: 17.4%

Total Snow/Frozen Liquid Ratio: 11.9

Frozen Water Content: 8.4%

 

2022-2023 Winter Storm List

11/13/22: 0.4” Combination of moisture streaming in from Lake Ontario and coastal low pressure

11/15/22: 6.1” Developing coastal low tracking over Cape Cod into the Gulf of Maine

11/17/22: 1.7” Upper level trough passing through Northern New England

11/20/22: 0.9” Lake-effect snow from Lake Ontario

11/20/22: 0.3” Strong upper level trough and associated cold front

11/21/22: 0.1” Weak clipper-type system

11/23/22: 0.4” Weak upper level disturbance passing though the region

11/25/22: 0.4” Low pressure system centered over James Bay

11/30/22: 0.7” Dynamic low pressure system tracking just south of Hudson Bay

12/3/22: 0.3” Low pressure system over the Great Lakes lifting north of our region

12/11/22: 1.9” Upper level shortwave traversing our region with weak surface low following

12/13/22: 1.1” Retrograding and deepening low pressure near Nova Scotia

12/16/22: 14.0” Winter Storm Diaz - low pressure tracking along the New England coast

12/18/22: 0.5” Decaying cyclonic upper gyre across southern Ontario with Lake Ontario moisture

12/19/22: 3.5” Spoke of weak shortwave energy among Midwestern cyclonic gyre

12/22/22: 7.8” Winter Storm Elliot - Powerful system tracking though the eastern Great Lakes

12/26/22: 0.5” Upper shortwave scooting across area + LES moisture

12/28/22: 0.4” Weak low pressure passing north of the international border

12/31/23: 0.2” Surface low passing through New England

1/3/23: 1.3” Winter Storm Hudson - system passing from Midwest through Great Lakes with frontal boundary in New England

1/9/23: 1.3” Trough dropping out of Canada with moderate cold frontal passage

1/12/23: 4.8” Low pressure from the Ohio Valley tracking through Northern New England

1/16/23: 0.2” Retrograding storm system over the New England coastal waters

1/18/23: 0.2” Deamplifying shortwave approaching area from the Great Lakes

1/19/23: 6.3” Winter Storm Iggy - low pressure passing near Cape Cod

1/22/23: 4.4” Winter Storm Jimenez - low tracking right along the New England coast

1/24/23: 1.0” Strong cold front

1/25/23: 13.1” Winter Storm Kassandra - dynamic, vertically stacked low pressure system moving from Ohio Valley to Great Lakes

1/28/23: 0.4” Rapidly moving trough/wave

1/29/23: 1.0” Winter Storm Leona - low pressure tracking along the northern tier of our region

1/30/23: 1.1” Low pressure system crossing from the northern Great Lakes

1/31/23: 2.5” Arctic front

2/1/23: 0.1” Classic, long-fetch lake-effect snow band off of Lake Ontario

2/2/23: 2.0” Strong arctic front

2/6/23: 0.1” Weak clipper-type low pressure system passing north of our area

2/7/23: 0.6” Weak low pressure passing northwest of the region

2/9/23: 1.9” Strengthening low pressure system passing to the northwest

2/13/23: 0.9” Upper level trough passing through the area

2/17/23: 1.5” Winter Storm Nova - low pressure from Ohio Valley tracking through Central VT

2/21/23: 0.8” Moderately sharp frontal boundary

2/22/23: 7.7” Winter Storm Olive - low pressure moving along warm front through New England

2/25/23: 0.6” Weak upper-level vorticity pushing through fast zonal flow

2/26/23: 7.1” Low pressure from Ontario/Quebec border passing southeast across our region

2/28/23: 4.6” Winter Storm Piper - Low moving through St. Lawrence Valley with secondary low developing off the coast

3/1/23: 3.9” Quick moving low pressure system moving across from the Great Lakes

3/4/23: 13.5” Winter Storm Quest - Strong, vertically-stacked low pressure moving from Ohio Valley to New England coast

3/7/23: 1.7” Upper level low circulation stalled over eastern Canadian Maritimes

3/13/23: 18.0” Winter Storm Sage - Strong low pressure curling into the New England Coast

3/16/23: 0.6” Weak upper-level disturbance

3/18/23: 1.5” Deep, strong upper low in Northern Great Lakes/Ontario with cold front and Lake Ontario LES

3/25/23: 1.3” Strong low pressure system passing to our northwest with secondary low off the East Coast

3/29/23: 0.7” Strong cold front with snow squalls

3/31/23: 1.8” Winter Storm Uriel - Large, dynamic, vertically-stacked low over the Northern Plains lifting through the Great Lakes

4/17/23: 0.1” Low pressure over the Great Lakes moving northeastward

5/16/23: 0.3” Cold front and robust, moisture-starved shortwave trough

[wxeyeNH]

As of June 15th things are nice and green in my hood of Central NH.  We took a ride down R93 to the Mass line and boy have the oak trees taken a beating.  Around here they are starting to leaf back out after the May freeze but south of here towards Concord many are bare.  Gypsy Moths plus the freeze?  Maybe Brian would know since he travels that stretch.   

[tamarack]

19 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

As of June 15th things are nice and green in my hood of Central NH.  We took a ride down R93 to the Mass line and boy have the oak trees taken a beating.  Around here they are starting to leaf back out after the May freeze but south of here towards Concord many are bare.  Gypsy Moths plus the freeze?  Maybe Brian would know since he travels that stretch.   

I've seen oak defoliation from Farmington to Phillips and also Rome/Belgrade.  Also saw some on our NJ/PA trip last month, mostly NNJ - no frost damage there. just spongey moth.