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NNE Cold Season Thread 2022/2023


bwt3650
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27 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Well, we know BTV is just including you guys to be nice.  They don't put much effort into you ALY guys.

Lol, I know.  Basically I think they collaborate and just cut and paste for the ALY zones from ALY maps when they put out for BTV covered area. 

ALY map looks just like that for SVT, go I am hedging against ALY--hope I am wrong, just seen this mid level warmth song and dance too many times I feel like. 

 

 

 

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Models gone wild!  Alex must be in Jamaica!!  Always happens when he is gone.  Boy, if we get hit with that 2nd storm early next week there could be some nice totals on the ground.  Of course the Kuchera clown maps are always overdone but they are fun to look at...

Meanwhile most of the roads in our town are dirt.  They were just starting to soften up so our road agent banned them.  No UPS delivery etc now until the end of mud season.  This gets me going because everything is now going to firm up and freeze for a long time with this pattern.  We only have 3 guys in our highway department and "Buck" the head guy only uses the Accu Weather app.  I have offered my input but he is not interest.  Okay rant ova..

Clown maps from Euro and GFS

snow.jpg

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I’ve added the updated BTV NWS maps from this afternoon below.  The Event Total Snowfall map didn’t seem to undergo any drastic changes, although they did trim the snowfall numbers down south a bit.  I assume that stems from the potential for mixed precipitation.  Our point forecast here did get a bit of a bump to 11-17” through Thursday night, so it’s fairly synched with the 12-18” shading here along the spine.  Reading the BTV NWS forecast discussion, that’s more in line with what they’re expecting for the high elevations, but the modeling sometimes puts those numbers in our area, being right along the spine.

21FEB23C.jpg.9244b14fea1ae0f04faa52cf6f9670ac.jpg

21FEB23B.thumb.jpg.7c48dabf7dfe6937ac04445656374f11.jpg

21FEB23D.thumb.jpg.3827e6b8f18ec5a6f7de797025909260.jpg

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15 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Latest from BTV

StormTotalSnow.jpg

I received another early morning text today, this time indicating that a Winter Storm Warning had been issue for our location.  Much of the BTV NWS County Warning Area is under it according to the latest alerts map.  This latest version of the Event Total Snowfall map has a bit wider section of the 12-18” shading along the spine and over in the Adirondacks, but I’d say thus far they have been pretty consistent around here.  Our current point forecast suggests roughly 12-18” through Thursday night, which is consistent with the map shading, although the map actually indicates that it’s only covering through 1:00 P.M. Thursday.

22FEB23A.jpg.b2cd738b020097d7eb8decf84fb3b295.jpg

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I have this fox that loves napping on this boulder behind the house. I've been seeing it several times a week lately, and today it decided to come close to the house. What a beauty!

It's definitely been a lackluster winter...I haven't used the snow blower in a full month, although I expect to use it tomorrow after the snow and sleet associated this SWFE. Hoping to make up for some lost time over the next 10-15 days. 

93DA9961-3B9E-40A4-837C-2409F395D5B3.jpeg

B2251106-7304-4C6E-858F-E2F14B5707D4.jpeg

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I was checking in to see some snow photos. I am definitely paying for my complaining today. We are going to be in the 80's and have had zero snow all year (which is even rare for this part of NC). Life circumstances took me back here or else I would still be in a snow climate for sure.

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11 hours ago, wxmanmitch said:

I have this fox that loves napping on this boulder behind the house. I've been seeing it several times a week lately, and today it decided to come close to the house. What a beauty!

It's definitely been a lackluster winter...I haven't used the snow blower in a full month, although I expect to use it tomorrow after the snow and sleet associated this SWFE. Hoping to make up for some lost time over the next 10-15 days. 

93DA9961-3B9E-40A4-837C-2409F395D5B3.jpeg

B2251106-7304-4C6E-858F-E2F14B5707D4.jpeg

Great pics. 
Last 2 days here have been wildlife-rich, with a dozen turkeys leaving tracks all around the house on Tuesday and 2 separate 8-deer groups yesterday.  We'd been seeing a gang of four (deer) every 2-3 days since last month, but they were joined by another dozen.  Our homey partridge appears almost daily in the yard or an apple tree, to keep the dog excited.
Only 2.5" from 0.17" LE at 7 AM and maybe a tenth more since, far from the Act One forecast of 5-9.  Significant qpf didn't make it as far north as expected.  However, that bust did lift the season total to almost exactly the average, which is 63.3" thru today.

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45 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Great pics. 
Last 2 days here have been wildlife-rich, with a dozen turkeys leaving tracks all around the house on Tuesday and 2 separate 8-deer groups yesterday.  We'd been seeing a gang of four (deer) every 2-3 days since last month, but they were joined by another dozen.  Our homey partridge appears almost daily in the yard or an apple tree, to keep the dog excited.
Only 2.5" from 0.17" LE at 7 AM and maybe a tenth more since, far from the Act One forecast of 5-9.  Significant qpf didn't make it as far north as expected.  However, that bust did lift the season total to almost exactly the average, which is 63.3" thru today.

Lots of fox sightings here, but not much else lately. The deer usually leave my area for a white pine/hemlock glen in the valley during the middle of the winter. 

4.1" of snow and sleet here. Consistency is like white sugar as there was virtually no freezing rain or drizzle overnight. Expecting a bit of glaze with at 2 later on. Soundings look hideous with freezing rain and low to mid 20s. Fortunately it does not look like a big event.

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13 hours ago, wxmanmitch said:

I have this fox that loves napping on this boulder behind the house. I've been seeing it several times a week lately, and today it decided to come close to the house. What a beauty!

It's definitely been a lackluster winter...I haven't used the snow blower in a full month, although I expect to use it tomorrow after the snow and sleet associated this SWFE. Hoping to make up for some lost time over the next 10-15 days. 

93DA9961-3B9E-40A4-837C-2409F395D5B3.jpeg

 

What a scene.  That's awesome!

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VERMONT

...Addison County...
  1 WNW Orwell            7.3   700 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  1 SE Cornwall           6.3   700 AM  2/23  Co-Op Observer
  4 NNE Shoreham          6.0   800 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  N Middlebury            5.0   700 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  2 SE New Haven          5.0   800 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  Vergennes               4.4   500 AM  2/23  Co-Op Observer
  1 NE South Lincoln      4.0   700 AM  2/23  Co-Op Observer
  4 ENE Starksboro        3.8   900 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS

...Caledonia County...
  Groton                  8.0   915 AM  2/23  Public
  East Burke              7.0   700 AM  2/23  Public
  Hardwick                6.8  1033 AM  2/23  Trained Spotter
  2 WNW Wells River       6.4   702 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  1 NW Peacham            6.3   640 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  Ryegate                 6.0   700 AM  2/23  Public
  N Danville              6.0   715 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  St. Johnsbury           6.0   500 AM  2/23  Public
  4 W Barnet              5.8   800 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  3 NNE Danville          5.1   700 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  Walden                  5.0   642 AM  2/23  Public
  2 S Wheelock            4.6   700 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS

...Chittenden County...
  3 ESE South Burlingt    7.0   800 AM  2/23  Public
  3 NE Charlotte          6.2   800 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  1 NE South Burlingto    6.1  1100 AM  2/23  NWS Office
  2 ESE Huntington        6.0   632 AM  2/23  1,400` elevations
  WSW Williston           6.0   700 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  Hinesburg               6.0   800 AM  2/23  900` elevation
  1 SW Underhill          6.0   728 AM  2/23  Public
  Burlington              5.9   819 AM  2/23  Public
  1 S Essex Center        5.8   935 AM  2/23  NWS Employee
  2 SW Huntington         5.5   700 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  2 E Underhill Center    5.5   600 AM  2/23  1,200` elevation
  2 NNW Williston         5.5   636 AM  2/23  NWS Employee
  1 NNE Colchester        5.5   545 AM  2/23  NWS Employee
  Winooski                5.5   652 AM  2/23  310` elevation
  3 SSW South Burlingt    5.5  1007 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  3 NW Williston          5.5   700 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  2 E St. George          5.3   644 AM  2/23  NWS Employee
  1 E Nashville           5.3   645 AM  2/23  Co-Op Observer
  4 NNE Underhill         5.2   700 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  1 NNW Burlington        5.1   900 AM  2/23  NWS Employee
  5 NNE Underhill         5.0   700 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  Underhill               5.0   700 AM  2/23  1,060` elevation
  St. George              5.0   843 AM  2/23  Public
  1 NNE Hinesburg         4.6   945 AM  2/23  Trained Spotter
  1 E Huntington          4.6   700 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  1 SW Milton             4.5   630 AM  2/23  NWS Employee
  4 ESE Underhill         4.2   730 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  3 SSW Williston         4.2   530 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  2 NW Westford           4.1   622 AM  2/23  NWS Employee
  2 SW Milton             4.0   750 AM  2/23  NWS Employee
  Milton                  3.0  1057 AM  2/23  Public

...Essex County...
  2 NNW Lunenburg         4.5   700 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  1 S East Haven          4.0   700 AM  2/23  Co-Op Observer
  Island Pond             3.0   800 AM  2/23  Co-Op Observer
  Norton                  1.0   515 AM  2/23  Public

...Franklin County...
  Fairfax                 3.5   414 AM  2/23  Public
  5 WNW Fairfax           3.5   900 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  3 NW Cambridge          3.5   700 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  St. Albans              3.2   620 AM  2/23  Public
  3 NNE St. Albans        3.0   920 AM  2/23  Public
  Georgia Center          3.0  1013 AM  2/23  Public
  Swanton                 2.5   600 AM  2/23  Public
  East Enosburg           2.5   625 AM  2/23  1,000` elevation
  Enosburg Falls          2.0   449 AM  2/23  Co-Op Observer
  Highgate Center         2.0   813 AM  2/23  Public
  Franklin                2.0   828 AM  2/23  Public
  3 SW Swanton            1.7   700 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  3 N Enosburg Falls      1.5   700 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  4 ESE Montgomery        1.5   700 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS

...Grand Isle County...
  South Hero              3.5   930 AM  2/23  Public

...Lamoille County...
  Elmore                  6.5   830 AM  2/23  Public
  Johnson                 6.0   730 AM  2/23  Public
  2 NNW Stowe             5.7   800 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  1 NW Stowe              5.5   843 AM  2/23  750` elevation
  SW Stowe                5.4   730 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  Morrisville             5.0   718 AM  2/23  Public
  2 N Johnson             4.5   650 AM  2/23  Co-Op Observer
  Jeffersonville          4.0  1009 AM  2/23  1,500` elevation
  3 N Smugglers Notch     4.0   730 AM  2/23  Co-Op Observer

...Orange County...
  ESE Chelsea             8.0   700 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  3 SW Braintree          7.0   800 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  Tunbridge               6.7  1000 AM  2/23  1,100` elevation
  Chelsea                 6.5   730 AM  2/23  Public
  2 E Corinth Corners     6.1   700 AM  2/23  Co-Op Observer
  2 NNW Bradford          6.0   700 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  Fairlee                 6.0  1205 PM  2/23  Public
  2 ENE West Fairlee      5.5   730 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  2 SE Strafford          5.5   700 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  2 E Topsham             5.0   631 AM  2/23  1,350` elevation
  Topsham                 5.0   620 AM  2/23  Public

...Orleans County...
  4 NNE Greensboro        5.1   530 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  2 NNW Greensboro        4.9   700 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  Craftsbury Common       3.8   700 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  Craftsbury              3.5  1006 AM  2/23  Public
  7 SE Morgan             3.0   700 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  Derby Center            2.3  1000 AM  2/23  Public
  Newport                 2.0   819 AM  2/23  Public
  1 WNW Westfield         2.0   730 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  Orleans                 1.8   600 AM  2/23  810` elevation
  2 W Derby Line          1.8   700 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  2 ENE Newport           1.8  1130 AM  2/23  Public

...Rutland County...
  3 S Sudbury             8.0   905 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  1 N Rutland             7.1   700 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  Forest Dale             6.0   817 AM  2/23  Public
  Brandon                 6.0   849 AM  2/23  Public
  2 SSE Pittsford         5.6   515 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  3 WSW East Pittsford    5.0   635 AM  2/23  Public
  1 N West Rutland        4.8   615 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  1 SSE West Rutland      4.8   800 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  Rutland                 4.5   730 AM  2/23  Public
  2 ENE Poultney          4.3  1012 AM  2/23  Public
  1 W Shrewsbury          3.7   700 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  3 SSW Wallingford       3.2   700 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS

...Washington County...
  East Warren             7.0   640 AM  2/23  1,750` elevation
  1 SSE Walden            7.0   725 AM  2/23  Trained Spotter
  2 W Moretown            6.0   700 AM  2/23  Public
  Fayston                 6.0   615 AM  2/23  Public
  2 N Calais              6.0   913 AM  2/23  Trained Spotter
  1 NW Calais             6.0   700 AM  2/23  Public
  Plainfield              6.0  1054 AM  2/23  Public
  1 ESE Plainfield        6.0   700 AM  2/23  Co-Op Observer
  Northfield              6.0   500 AM  2/23  1,400` elevation
  1 NNW Woodbury          5.9   830 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  3 NNW Woodbury          5.8   700 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  Montpelier              5.7   646 AM  2/23  Public
  1 SW East Barre         5.6   746 AM  2/23  NWS Employee
  4 NE Waterbury          5.6   700 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  East Montpelier         5.5  1015 AM  2/23  Public
  5 E Moretown            5.5   700 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  3 NW Waterbury          5.5   600 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  2 SW East Calais        5.5   700 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  2 W Worcester           5.5   700 AM  2/23  Co-Op Observer
  Cabot                   5.1   615 AM  2/23  1,900` elevation
  2 SE Waitsfield         5.0   600 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  2 E Cabot               5.0   850 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  3 E Warren              5.0   700 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  Barre                   4.8   723 AM  2/23  Public

...Windsor County...
  Rochester               6.5   700 AM  2/23  Public
  2 NE Rochester          6.4   700 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  3 N Pomfret             6.4   700 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  3 NE West Hartford      6.3   600 AM  2/23  1,300` elevation
  4 NE West Hartford      6.0   545 AM  2/23  1,240` elevation
  Royalton                6.0   700 AM  2/23  900` elevation
  Quechee                 5.5   700 AM  2/23  Public
  1 E Woodstock           5.0   800 AM  2/23  Co-Op Observer
  NNE Proctorsville       4.8   700 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  1 NNE North Hartland    4.8   700 AM  2/23  Co-Op Observer
  1 ESE Woodstock         4.8   800 AM  2/23  Public
  3 S Ludlow              4.5   800 AM  2/23  Trained Spotter
  2 S West Windsor        4.2   700 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
  1 WNW Weathersfield     3.5   830 AM  2/23  CoCoRaHS
...Bennington County...
  Landgrove               5.0   555 AM  2/23  WeatherNet6
  5 NW Readsboro          4.1  1050 AM  2/23  Public
  West Arlington          3.0   524 AM  2/23  WeatherNet6

...Windham County...
  East Dummerston         4.2   715 AM  2/23  Trained Spotter
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4 hours ago, bwt3650 said:

Underperformed here. 6 by early afternoon. Round 2 has a burst tonight, but don’t see the 12-18 verifying. Good refresh nonetheless and lots of refreshes coming up. Some good late feb/early March skiing and back to 100 percent open.


.

I know they painted Jay as 12-18 but that was never really in the cards and the afd's called it out that the border was going to have drying issues and it did.  It took a long time for that column to saturate last night.  It was snowing over my head for 3 hours before I saw a flake.  If I dont get an inch tonight I will agree on the bust.  So far I have had everything thrown at me with no additional accum.  Freezing rain, sleet, ice pellets, graupel, and snow, damn you warm nose (who you callin warm nose). Still a weak disturbance to come through later though.  Maybe we get an inch then.    

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PF, I have to know about this.  Lookout has always been my favorite trail, it's the best part of the front "5".  What is this competition that's happening on it 

 

"Event- The Lookout Trail will be reserved tomorrow for the IFSA Freeride World Qualifier event tomorrow.  Please be aware of the event if you are in the glades alongside the trail and make sure to avoid popping out of the trees and onto the course."'

Whatever it is is sounds amazing if it's actually on lookout under the double!!!

 

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