NNE Cold Season Thread 2022/2023

[mreaves]

Watches up for Wednesday through Thursday. 

[timp]

Northern counties don’t even get in on the winter storm watch lol. Another winner for south and central VT like clockwork. The lack of upslope has really put a damper on things up this way so far this season. Just constantly behind the rest of you guys when it comes to synoptic snow. 

[MarkO]

Had to post this map in the NNE thread. It wouldn't be nice in any other thread.

[alex]

4 hours ago, MarkO said:

Had to post this map in the NNE thread. It wouldn't be nice in any other thread.

Lol. At least not among the non skiers/snowmobilers etc 

[J.Spin]

I headed up to the mountain yesterday morning to catch a quick ski tour and check out the snow we’d received from Winter Storm Jimenez up to that point.  Bolton was indicating 4 to 5 inches of new snow as of the morning report, and that’s what I found fairly consistently in touring from 2,100’ up to around 2,700’ on terrain that had previously been packed.  Turns were generally bottomless with 115 mm width skis on low and moderate angle terrain, but the quality of the turns was bolstered by the fact that the subsurface continues to improve with each storm.  That dense mid-month storm really substantiated the base, and Winter Storm Izzy added some drier snow atop that, so the depth and quality of the snowpack is improving by leaps and bounds.  There have been additional accumulations today from a strong cold front passing through the area, and the next synoptic system in the queue is expected to impact the area tomorrow night and has been named Winter Storm Kassandra.  That system seems to have a bit more potential for some upslope snow on the back side, and I’ve seen storm total estimates as high as 12 to 18 inches for the local mountains, which would represent another great addition to the snowpack.

[mreaves]

Latest map from BTV.  Sounds like other areas of NNE have trended worse.  BTV is keeping a stedy hand.

[Teleskier_vt]

I am not sure that this is the correct thread to pose this question, but I have a question on models and snow amounts forecasted.  This upcoming storm obviously is super tricky to forecast amounts with the dryslot and downsloping issues, as well as the overall late transfer of energy to the coast and the warm air aloft overnight.  But my question is about the snowfall modeling products in the NAM 3k, and the Ferrier snowfall modeling.  I always like to look at the 10:1 ratio map, but it seems like in this setup the Ferrier numbers are really what we should be looking at (and seem to really reflect the low end forecast amounts coming out of the BTV NWS office.) 

So any thoughts on when it is best to use 10:1 vs Ferrier in the NAM 3K would be welcomed, as well as how to best understand the differences in these 2 products.  I attached the 2 different maps from the 12z NAM 3K.

 

[tamarack]

23 hours ago, MarkO said:

Had to post this map in the NNE thread. It wouldn't be nice in any other thread.

Uffda!

[J.Spin]

3 hours ago, mreaves said:

Latest map from BTV.  Sounds like other areas of NNE have trended worse.  BTV is keeping a steady hand.

I haven’t really seen much change in the projections for this system over the past few days; the models seemed to have been pretty locked in on the track, but maybe it has changed outside of our area.  Yesterday morning I received a text alert that we’d been put under a Winter Storm Watch, and yesterday afternoon I got another one indicated that we were under a Winter Storm Warning, so that proceeded pretty quickly.  Consistent with the lack of notable changes you noted, the Event Total Snowfall map doesn’t seem to have changed in the past couple of cycles.  They’ve got that 12-18” shading along the spine in the Bolton through Smugg’s stretch, and while that initially didn’t seem to jive with the mountain point forecasts, it seems like it does now – the Mansfield point forecast tops out around 18” through Thursday night.

[wxeyeNH]

28/19  Snow started 1pm

Blast from the past.  This just came up on my face book feed.  How many years ago, Alex?

[alex]

15 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

28/19  Snow started 1pm

Blast from the past.  This just came up on my face book feed.  How many years ago, Alex?

Wow, that’s gotta be 5-6 years ago at least! Funny. 
 

In the current weather department, snow just started. Would be great to avoid too much rain and keep the powder - doesn’t look too bad right now, but things can change and this year in particular caution is always good!

[dmcginvt]

Been coming down but no 1 in/hr.  I've had 2 on the day and about 1/2"/hr rate in the last 20

 

[dmcginvt]

Ok up to 3 now and it's dumping.  It's like that dryslot stopped in N NY and we are getting all the goodies.  Wooooooo

[borderwx]

7.5” at sunrise, whole kitchen coming out of the sky when we left for work.


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[Angus]

was talking to a friend about the conditions at SLoaf and he was saying how he's been very satisfied with his ski season so far...temperatures have been warm with not a lot of wind. It reminded me of the '83-84 season - does anyone have the summary stats for Farmington or even the County for that year...would be interesting to see if it was warm but on the snowier side compared to the rest of NE that year.

[borderwx]

2” during the sunlight hours

Still snowing with a cool NW breeze.


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[Patriot21]

When I got home at 4 it was snowing and the road had a fresh coating. Been snowing since then, have not seen it stop. I'd guess an inch and a half. 

[tamarack]

On 1/26/2023 at 12:13 PM, Angus said:

was talking to a friend about the conditions at SLoaf and he was saying how he's been very satisfied with his ski season so far...temperatures have been warm with not a lot of wind. It reminded me of the '83-84 season - does anyone have the summary stats for Farmington or even the County for that year...would be interesting to see if it was warm but on the snowier side compared to the rest of NE that year.

Farmington had slightly (2") BN snow.  They have "M" for the 1st day of the big mid-March storm, but their pack increased 13" that day.  Using that for 3/14 (and the qpf fits) makes it a 23" dump.  Both CAR and Fort Kent had about 20" above their averages, with the mid-March event dumping 29.0" at CAR, their #2 storm, topped only by the extended storm of 12/25-27/05.  We lived in the back settlement then, 3 miles SW from downtown FK and 450' higher than the co-op, and had a high-density 170" total, starting early as Nov-Dec had 16"+ qpf and 73" SN.  The 18.5" surprise (forecast was 1-3) of Feb 5-6 briefly brought our pack to 61" though it was 59" by the time of my next obs.  Then we had 2.5 weeks of thaw that dropped the pack to 35".  It inched up to 42" before that 3/14-15 storm pushed it to 65" with a 26.5" slam, biggest snowstorm and pack of my experience.  Probably had 16"+ in that pack, and on 3/15 we went up to Big Twenty Twp to retrieve a disabled snowmobile.  While there I cut a long stick, marked it in 10" increments, and found a depth of 80" after ramming the stick thru the frozen layer left by a mid-Dec IP/ZR storm.  (Crust from that would carry a bull moose, though it was likely softened a bit by the Feb thaw.)
Temps:  Nov about average, Dec 2.7 BN, Jan 1.5 BN, Feb 8.1 AN, Mar 6.3 BN.

In 9.7 winters in Fort Kent, only 1.5 days of school were lost to snow.  The poor forecast Feb storm caused the plow crew to sleep in and school was canceled because the parking lots were buried.  At decision time on 3/14 there was 6" new with moderate snow and 6"+ to come so the buses ran as usual.  Then the storm grew up with 3"/hr and 14" by noon and the kids were sent home then.  AFAIK, there were no glitches in the bus routes despite the 30-mile run to Allagash with HS students and the very hilly 25 miles to Winterville with kids of all grades.

Probably more than you wanted to know.  

[NW_of_GYX]

4 hours ago, tamarack said:

Farmington had slightly (2") BN snow.  They have "M" for the 1st day of the big mid-March storm, but their pack increased 13" that day.  Using that for 3/14 (and the qpf fits) makes it a 23" dump.  Both CAR and Fort Kent had about 20" above their averages, with the mid-March event dumping 29.0" at CAR, their #2 storm, topped only by the extended storm of 12/25-27/05.  We lived in the back settlement then, 3 miles SW from downtown FK and 450' higher than the co-op, and had a high-density 170" total, starting early as Nov-Dec had 16"+ qpf and 73" SN.  The 18.5" surprise (forecast was 1-3) of Feb 5-6 briefly brought our pack to 61" though it was 59" by the time of my next obs.  Then we had 2.5 weeks of thaw that dropped the pack to 35".  It inched up to 42" before that 3/14-15 storm pushed it to 65" with a 26.5" slam, biggest snowstorm and pack of my experience.  Probably had 16"+ in that pack, and on 3/15 we went up to Big Twenty Twp to retrieve a disabled snowmobile.  While there I cut a long stick, marked it in 10" increments, and found a depth of 80" after ramming the stick thru the frozen layer left by a mid-Dec IP/ZR storm.  (Crust from that would carry a bull moose, though it was likely softened a bit by the Feb thaw.)
Temps:  Nov about average, Dec 2.7 BN, Jan 1.5 BN, Feb 8.1 AN, Mar 6.3 BN.

In 9.7 winters in Fort Kent, only 1.5 days of school were lost to snow.  The poorly Feb storm caused the plow crew to sleep in and school was canceled because the parking lots were buried.  At decision time on 3/14 there was 6" new with moderate snow and 6"+ to come so the buses ran as usual.  Then the storm grew up with 3"/hr and 14" by noon and the kids were sent home then.  AFAIK, there were no glitches in the bus routes despite the 30-mile run to Allagash with HS students and the very hilly 25 miles to Winterville with kids of all grades.

Probably more than you wanted to know.  

Awesome bit of history, thanks for sharing. Truly a winter of yore. Thanks to our obscene obsession with tort law they cancel school now if it's cloudy. 

[wxeyeNH]

GFS looks out of it's mind for the end of next week.  It always seems to do this in the extended.  Amplify things.  I can see our first true shot of arctic air but these temperatures?  Seems very extreme.

 

[DavisStraight]

14 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

GFS looks out of it's mind for the end of next week.  It always seems to do this in the extended.  Amplify things.  I can see our first true shot of arctic air but these temperatures?  Seems very extreme.

 

It's had it and lost it a couple of times, maybe it will stick. Had us -20s in Mass at one point, never believed that but I could see the cold seeping down to you guys.

[NW_of_GYX]

Nice qpf signal for the favored spots in NNE over the next 4 days. Some might see another 6-12”? Ensemble means are snowy through the end of the period as well. Nice to see things rolling along as they should in the heart of the season. 
 

[J.Spin]

I was too busy yesterday to hit the slopes and check out the new snow from Winter Storm Kassandra, but my younger son was out at Bolton and said the skiing was excellent.  He told me that he and his friend got third tracks down Preacher, which must have been pretty amazing.  The snowfall continued right through the day on Thursday though, and there was a decent signal for upslope snow on the back side of the storm cycle, so it seemed like Friday held some promise for great turns as well.  My drive home from Burlington on Thursday evening went from partly cloudy conditions in the Champlain Valley, to gradually increasing snowfall as I pushed farther into the mountains, to a pounding of huge flakes by the time I got home.  The roads were snowy, but the visibility was the tougher part of the drive.  When I measured the snowfall rate at our house that evening, it was up in the 2 to 3-inch per hour range for a while, so the flakes were stacking up quickly.  And not surprisingly, those huge flakes were stacking up with impressive loft.  When I ran a snow analysis at midnight, the stack came in at 2.3% H₂O.  We haven’t really had a lot of upslope on the back side of storm cycles this season, but we got some this time, and it suggested good things for Friday morning.

This morning I was on my way up to earn some morning turns at Wilderness, when I passed by Timberline and realized the timing was right for the Timberline Uphill Route to be open.  The snowpack has thus far been thin down at those lower elevations, but Kassandra definitely seemed to push it over the top and I had my first Timberline outing of the season.  We had some outstanding powder skiing around here in mid-December, but I think today’s turns might have just edged out that period to set the new bar for the season.  The snowpack was surprisingly robust during that December stretch, but the fact that we’ve now had multiple winter storm cycles, multiple inches of liquid equivalent going into the snowpack, and a skiable snowpack that reaches down even to the Timberline elevations means a lot.  The turns today were so very bottomless and effortless with all the new champagne on top, so it was certainly one of the top days of the season thus far.  Bolton is planning to run the Timberline Quad tomorrow for the first time this season, so that’s a sign that the season is really moving into prime time.  They’re also planning on some nice additions to celebrate the day like free coffee, and a visit from the El Gato Food Truck, so it should be a fun way to get Timberline rolling for the season.

[#NoPoles]

I got in my car yesterday morning and said to myself, wow it feels cold this morning. Then I saw the temp was 21. Damn, lol, if 21 feels cold, this has been an easy winter. If the cold shot materializes, I'm going to be cryin for my momma.

[tamarack]

14 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

GFS looks out of it's mind for the end of next week.  It always seems to do this in the extended.  Amplify things.  I can see our first true shot of arctic air but these temperatures?  Seems very extreme.

 

If it was the 2nd or 3rd Arctic blast, those temps could easily be doable, but I can't remember when a first invasion got that cold.  The past 30 days are 9.7° AN; to get days of 20-25° BN it will likely need more than one surge from N. Canada.

[wxeyeNH]

Snowmobilers are everywhere today.  Conditions are good but they need one more storm to make conditions great.  Don't see anything of significance this week more than some fast flow moisture starved systems.

That signal for real cold remains for next weekend.  Euro has even got a bit colder with the 12Z runs.  For most of us it has a -25 to -30F morning next Saturday rising to a high of -15F during the day.  In the longer range things seem amplified but even if you took  ten degrees off to account for that it still would be crazy cold.

EDIT:  I posted this before I even read the forums.  I now see it discussed in detail in the Feb thread.

[J.Spin]

Yesterday was the much anticipated season opening of Bolton’s Timberline area, and as announced, they livened things up a bit for the event with free coffee, and a visit from the El Gato Food Truck.  Bolton fans were of course excited to get the last main pod of the resort open for the season, shifting the alpine trail network up to its full speed, but even more exciting was the fact that the snow has simply been sitting there and accumulating over the course of these last several storm cycles.  There’s been some ski touring traffic in the area, but the Timberline Uphill Route hasn’t officially been open, so the visitation hasn’t been all that heavy.  All this, combined with the fact that the back side of Winter Storm Kassandra finally put some of that classic Northern Greens upslope fluff in place to top off the snowpack, meant that some fantastic powder skiing awaited the visitors.

My wife and I headed up for the anticipated 9:00 A.M. opening of the Timberline Quad, and when we got into the lineup around 8:45 A.M., there were only about a dozen of us there.  The lift opening went off without a hitch, and from then on, Timberline was a lift-served powder playground.  There was a mid-morning rush where the lift queue grew large, but before that point it was minimal to nonexistent.  We had light to moderate snowfall for a good part of the morning when one of the small waves of low pressure in the area pushed through, and temperatures were about as perfect as you could want – they were on the mild side, but stayed below freeing to avoid any disruption to the quality of the powder.  The conditions were certainly nothing in the realm of all-time by Northern Greens standards, but it was great, right-side-up bottomless powder everywhere we went, and even down to the 1,500’ elevation, the base depths are good for just about all the terrain.  A couple more solid storm cycles would push it to that next level for hitting bigger features, but the snowpack is certainly in midwinter form.

[borderwx]

Surprised to come home to 4”


J,
Made it to Bolton today, an Indy pass exploration, great hill you have down there!


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[J.Spin]

33 minutes ago, borderwx said:

Surprised to come home to 4”


J,
Made it to Bolton today, an Indy pass exploration, great hill you have down there!

Excellent - so great to hear that you got out to BV for some exploration.  Hopefully conditions stayed OK - I was ski touring in the Nebraska Valley today, and later in the afternoon the freezing levels came up.  We were snow all the way down into the valleys, through about midafternoon, but they seemed to rise up to at least 1,000' -1,500' later.

[borderwx]

Excellent - so great to hear that you got out to BV for some exploration.  Hopefully conditions stayed OK - I was ski touring in the Nebraska Valley today, and later in the afternoon the freezing levels came up.  We were snow all the way down into the valleys, through about midafternoon, but they seemed to rise up to at least 1,000' -1,500' later.

Definitely had a mid mountain surface change from damp pow to sticky oatmeal, I know I will be waxing the skis this week

I’ll be back to check out the backside terrain


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