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NNE Cold Season Thread 2022/2023


bwt3650
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13 hours ago, alex said:

Interesting - thanks for sharing. Most of our evergreens (balsam fir and red spruce) up here are pretty short so maybe less prone to damage, plus our location gets some pretty nasty winds pretty regularly but will be interesting to see. More worried about the potential for flooding than wind damage, but that’s very IMBY

Softwood stands are somewhat less vulnerable than individual fir surrounded by leaf-off hardwoods, unless the wind gets exceptionally strong, and as you note, shorter trees have lower leverage for the wind to work on.

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On 12/15/2022 at 3:59 PM, bwt3650 said:

It’s hard not to get really excited about the look today. Hope it holds, as this would turn into one of the best Decembers in ski land in quite a few years.

 

10 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Awesome photos JSpin. Those really share a vibe.

SnowyVibes.jpg.21e1e2120ee602db8126aa15dda2a275.jpg

Thanks PF, that’s right where I was going with those.  We’ve obviously had numerous great Decembers and great December periods of skiing in the past, but this stretch has been really fun in the way it sort of went from zero to sixty in just one storm – and it was timed really well to put down a fairly substantial valley snowpack heading into the holidays.  The current snowpack at our site as of this morning’s CoCoRaHS report is 11 inches, and while that may not seem like a lot for the winter solstice, it actually is at our site.  The mean snowpack depth for December 21st here is only about 7 inches, so the current depth is definitely above average, and in fact it’s close to 1 S.D. above the mean.  It’s been 14 seasons since the snowpack has been this deep at our site on this date, and you have to go all the way back to those La Niña seasons of 2007-2008 and 2008-2009:

2022: 11.0”

2021: 6.5”

2020: 4.5”

2019: 3.0”

2018: 9.0”

2017: 6.0”

2016: 5.0”

2015: 1.5”

2014: 7.0”

2013: 7.5”

2012: 3.0”

2011: 0.0”

2010: 7.0”

2009: 8.0”

2008: 13.0”

2007: 20.0”

It reminded me of bwt’s comment from Thursday, which I quoted above.  I don’t think this December is really going to compete with the top contenders because it didn’t turn into something notable until mid-month, and there aren’t any obvious storms in the forecast over the next week or so that would push it into the upper echelon of Decembers (that would probably require another 30 to 40 inches of snow in the next 10 days), but this has definitely been a solid week in terms of snowy vibe and ski quality.  The thing that’s added that little extra notch of excellence to the skiing on natural snow terrain is that the base that was in place before this last storm was really not that hard, yet it was somehow substantial enough to do the job – so it’s got that feeling of skiing with a snowpack that’s never seen a thaw/freeze.

In any event, it’s been a quality week for skiing, and this has got to be way up there on the quality scale for some of the SVT resorts that don’t typically see this much natural snow at this stage of the season.

Another factor that I think helps is that this December is on track to have more snow than the past two, so it’s feeling like a notch up after a couple of slow Decembers.

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18 hours ago, alex said:

 More worried about the potential for flooding than wind damage, but that’s very IMBY

Alex,  I'm guessing you will be fine as far as flooding is concerned.  It is a quick 12 hour warm sector then within an hour or two back into the deep freeze.  I think the snowpack at elevation can absorb the heavy rain before it gets down to the river.  With a flash freeze there is going to be a lot of ice around.  Ski areas are going to have to work fast making snow or the trails will be hard and fast for sure.

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29 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Alex,  I'm guessing you will be fine as far as flooding is concerned.  It is a quick 12 hour warm sector then within an hour or two back into the deep freeze.  I think the snowpack at elevation can absorb the heavy rain before it gets down to the river.  With a flash freeze there is going to be a lot of ice around.  Ski areas are going to have to work fast making snow or the trails will be hard and fast for sure.

Yes I hope you’re right. I looked at 2 years ago, when we had a close call, and we had much more snowpack to begin with, 2 full days above freezing with several hours at about 60F, and about 2” of rain. Either way, it’s good to be prepared!

in the meantime, amazing skiing today. The ungroomed natural terrain is just amazing right now. The resorts will suffer but with the cold temperatures they’ll get back quickly. Groom those suckers a couple of times, make some snow and voila, everyone is happy. 
 

speaking of which - yesterday some of the newer guns were set on this very fine mist - almost like vapor. It didn’t seem like they were doing anything but the trail underneath them was like fresh soft powder. I was pretty amazed. 
 

back to skiing (typing from the gondola lol)

5966FB1B-280D-4FCF-8369-401C92B9D639.jpeg

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3 hours ago, alex said:

Yes I hope you’re right. I looked at 2 years ago, when we had a close call, and we had much more snowpack to begin with, 2 full days above freezing with several hours at about 60F, and about 2” of rain. Either way, it’s good to be prepared!

The 2020 megaGrinch dumped 2.68" RA here, most with temp +/-50, quickly extinguishing the 5" pack.  The event brought the Sandy River above flood stage, with the 21,200 cfs the greatest flow since April 2005.  The current SWE is at least twice that going into the 2020 deluge, so I hope much of the 15-16" cold pack survives Friday.

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what lake is that? seems decent size. surprised it's frozen. Not much locked up over here yet.

That is actually the rt 100 valley, looking south toward Eden

Almost a full inversion this morning.

It was clouds above,below, and occasionally in them.

Memphremagog is frozen only in it’s South Bay this far, still plenty of open water


.
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55 minutes ago, borderwx said:


That is actually the rt 100 valley, looking south toward Eden

Almost a full inversion this morning.

It was clouds above,below, and occasionally in them.

Memphremagog is frozen only in it’s South Bay this far, still plenty of open water


.

I thought it was South Bay lol. 

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3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Solid 3” of concrete paste at 1500ft.

Roads were atrocious.  It was like driving through a thick slush puppy.  Even in a big SUV the vehicle was getting tossed by the slush.

098472D6-5B88-4052-BB5D-09D2AE548FE2.thumb.jpeg.b2b22d4a4125b5bd1e683379c6ac5cfa.jpeg

Only 1.2" sloppy IP, but nearly enough to slide my feet forward off the porch stairs - nasty (but now shoveled).  Moderate RA at present with some RA+ incoming, temp still at 32 but no accretion.  Power off since just before 7:30 though we're still in CAD-land with modest wind.  However, light vehicles might be sliding just like my feet were, so maybe a crash  

Genny just turned off, so slightly under 2 hr running.  Propane truck topped off our tanks (2 hundred gallon beasts, only 21 gallons used in a year) and at a gallon per running time, we're OK if/when this event kicks us to generator power again.

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Pouring rain, light/moderate wind, 33-34° - CAD hanging in, though the RA+ ought to be breaking it down. 
Maybe it will be like our first December in Maine, 1973.  In mid-month we had 4" SN followed by 2"+ RA in 15 hours with temps in the 30s.  Then an hour of downpour and temp jumping to 56, while it was 15 and IP at our former home in NNJ and western CT had perhaps their worst ever ice storm ever.

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Lost power at 830am so many trees down on Gregg hill rd, so much rain but of course my weather station is down.  Still no power and Verizon sucks I had better luck with Google fi go figure.  I am typing from my wifes hot spot who still has fi.  Man is it snowing hard, eyeballing 3 inches so far since the changeover.  Pleasant surprise as I expected a slight whitening but it is heavenly out there stuck to every tree with no more wind.  That wind was nuts and lived up to the hype.  I won’t have power for few days.  Had to go to Stowe because of course all my servers were down, couldn’t get out the n part of my road so had to go out south end and there were so many trees down on 100, 2of which were still resting on power lines across route 100 I had to drive under that and was a bit freaked out

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What a day in BTV too.... gusted 70mph (2nd highest ever recorded since 1882 there).

This evening just ripping off M1/4sm visibility Heavy Snow and Wind during the flash freeze.

METAR KBTV 240050Z AUTO 24014KT M1/4SM +SN FZFG VV006 M06/M08 A2899 RMK P0006
METAR KBTV 240045Z AUTO 27013G18KT M1/4SM +SN FZFG VV005 M06/M08 A2898 RMK P0006
METAR KBTV 240040Z AUTO 26014KT M1/4SM +SN FZFG VV005 M06/M08 A2897 RMK P0005
METAR KBTV 240035Z AUTO 25014KT M1/4SM +SN FZFG VV005 M06/M08 A2897 RMK P0005
METAR KBTV 240030Z AUTO 24016KT M1/4SM +SN FZFG VV005 M05/M07 A2897 RMK P0005
METAR KBTV 240025Z AUTO 24013KT M1/4SM +SN FZFG VV005 M05/M06 A2896 RMK P0005

Dec_23_BTVSnow.thumb.jpg.32d0d0a19db8a4122ec10b5bcbea0f67.jpg

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