NNE Cold Season Thread 2022/2023

[wxeyeNH]

12Z NAM is probably overdone  but what a juicy run.  

[#NoPoles]

Looking at all those  snow fall maps, the thing I noticed is that sharp cutoff up here. Rt 302 in Twin runs pretty much east/west and then approaching the Notch it oriented more N/S as it runs through Crawford Notch. It is sloped as well. It's a lower elevation right in Twin at the intersection of RT3 and RT302 it is steadily uphill until right before the entrance to Crwford Notch at the AMC Highland Center. The land also narrows as you go from Twin towards the Notch. Essentially RT 302 runs along a narrowing valley. It gets shadowed by the Whites and it also floods with warm air during marginal events (relatively speaking) and that is why there is a sharp cut off in accums. I'm actually wondering what we will get here in Bretton Woods. This depicted track looks like it might bury Phin and RT2 corridor, but could shadow here along RT302. 

[alex]

I reviewed and approved the 12Z GFS

[bwt3650]

Looking at all those  snow fall maps, the thing I noticed is that sharp cutoff up here. Rt 302 in Twin runs pretty much east/west and then approaching the Notch it oriented more N/S as it runs through Crawford Notch. It is sloped as well. It's a lower elevation right in Twin at the intersection of RT3 and RT302 it is steadily uphill until right before the entrance to Crwford Notch at the AMC Highland Center. The land also narrows as you go from Twin towards the Notch. Essentially RT 302 runs along a narrowing valley. It gets shadowed by the Whites and it also floods with warm air during marginal events (relatively speaking) and that is why there is a sharp cut off in accums. I'm actually wondering what we will get here in Bretton Woods. This depicted track looks like it might bury Phin and RT2 corridor, but could shadow here along RT302. 

I was just thinking that..phin must be doing backflips with that setup. And Randolph will upslope on the departure.

Up here, I think we’ll cash in on the upslope more than the storm itself. Looks a little shredded once north of about killington. Days and days of snow , tho and Christmas Eve looks sweet. That would make A LOT of people who paid a ton of money to ski that week very happy.


.

[alex]

1 hour ago, #NoPoles said:

Looking at all those  snow fall maps, the thing I noticed is that sharp cutoff up here. Rt 302 in Twin runs pretty much east/west and then approaching the Notch it oriented more N/S as it runs through Crawford Notch. It is sloped as well. It's a lower elevation right in Twin at the intersection of RT3 and RT302 it is steadily uphill until right before the entrance to Crwford Notch at the AMC Highland Center. The land also narrows as you go from Twin towards the Notch. Essentially RT 302 runs along a narrowing valley. It gets shadowed by the Whites and it also floods with warm air during marginal events (relatively speaking) and that is why there is a sharp cut off in accums. I'm actually wondering what we will get here in Bretton Woods. This depicted track looks like it might bury Phin and RT2 corridor, but could shadow here along RT302. 

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a snowstorm where models didn’t have that sharp cutoff, whether it happened or not. But I definitely like the look - storm itself and then days of upslope. Bring it!

[wxeyeNH]

The upslope and downslope of the mountains is so interesting.  It differs so much in short distances.  Down here about 15 miles south of the Whites Plymouth and to a lesser extent me gets shadows on the NE flow.  At the same time I do fantastic in CAD situations.  Many times my warmest temps are right after fropa when mixing sets in.

[mcglups]

Call it a messy storm in a really good way. A mix of everything should indeed result in varying accumulation amounts spread across days of action. bring it!

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, alex said:

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a snowstorm where models didn’t have that sharp cutoff, whether it happened or not. But I definitely like the look - storm itself and then days of upslope. Bring it!

But the best storms have the sharp cutoff east of Matinicus (and still pound SR and the 'Loaf).

[#NoPoles]

Friday, tentative plans with my BFs fam- maybe doing an early dinner and then catching a movie. But...I guess I may not want to be out on the roads, so who knows...right now early dinner is still on. BF has a truck, so that's at least better than my corolla. Gotta wait and see how bad things get. It just may be a good day/evening to just hunker down at home and not risk being out on the roads. Will prob need to go grocery shopping before Friday as well.

Gotta get the bread and milk

[mreaves]

Updated map from BTV

[J.Spin]

3 hours ago, mreaves said:

Updated map from BTV

I see they bumped up the forecast snow totals around here in the update, but the first map covered a 36-hour window and the new map is for a slightly later shifted 39-hour window, so that could be part of the difference.  This new one goes six hours further into the storm cycle, so that would probably incorporate more of the potential upslope on the back side.  In the initial map were in the 8-12” zone here in the valley, and now we’re in the 12-18” shading.  Our point forecast suggests 7-13” through Friday, so the 12-18” range covering through midday Saturday would be reasonable depending on the backside snow.  In the higher elevations around here, the point forecasts have totals of 9-17” through that period, so that certainly fits the 12-18” shading.  We’ll of course have to see what the snow ratios are down here in the valley to determine total accumulation, but I am seeing in the range of 1 to 2 inches of liquid around here on most of the models with upslope incorporated.

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

As of 350 PM EST Wednesday...

Bumped up the precipitation values especially on Friday afternoon across much of the Green Mountains to account for the impressive low level speed convergence from the 50 kt easterly low level jet. When it`s all said and done, the ADK and Green Mountains, especially away from the shadowed west slopes, should get 12 to 18 inches of snow with localized 2 ft possible.

 

[mreaves]

Latest from BTV

[tamarack]

Farther east:

County:         All        Selected        -- ME --        Androscoggin, ME        Cumberland, ME        Franklin, ME        Kennebec, ME        Knox, ME        Lincoln, ME        Oxford, ME        Sagadahoc, ME        Somerset, ME        Waldo, ME        York, ME        -- NH --        Belknap, NH        Carroll, NH        Cheshire, NH        Coos, NH        Grafton, NH        Hillsborough, NH        Merrimack, NH        Rockingham, NH        Strafford, NH        Sullivan, NH

Location	Snow Amount Potential	Chance of Seeing More Snow Than
	Low End Snowfall	Expected Snowfall	High End Snowfall	>=0.1"	>=1"	>=2"	>=4"	>=6"	>=8"	>=12"	>=18"
Portland, ME	0	<1	4	54%	43%	30%	12%	3%	1%	0%	0%
Lewiston, ME	3	10	12	94%	92%	88%	78%	64%	46%	6%	0%
Augusta, ME	4	10	11	96%	94%	91%	81%	66%	46%	3%	0%
Farmington, ME	8	14	17	100%	100%	100%	98%	95%	88%	59%	9%
Bath, ME	0	2	5	61%	50%	37%	16%	4%	1%	0%	0%
Rockland, ME	0	<1	2	42%	27%	13%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Manchester, NH	0	2	5	71%	60%	46%	21%	6%	1%	0%	0%
Nashua, NH	0	<1	3	55%	37%	19%	2%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Concord, NH	2	8	9	91%	87%	82%	66%	46%	23%	0%	0%
Portsmouth, NH	0	<1	1	44%	20%	5%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Keene, NH	2	6	10	96%	94%	89%	73%	51%	27%	3%	0%
Rochester, NH	0	6	8	83%	77%	70%	52%	31%	14%	1%	0%
North Conway, NH	11	15	20	100%	100%	100%	100%	99%	96%	79%	28%
Laconia, NH	6	13	14	99%	98%	97%	93%	85%	72%	33%	0%
Lebanon, NH	7	11	14	100%	100%	99%	98%	92%	80%	34%	1%
Berlin, NH	9	13	19	100%	100%	100%	99%	98%	93%	66%	17%

If this were to verify (and my town's forecast mirrors that for Farmington), it would be our biggest snowfall since March of 2018.

[#NoPoles]

Ski season and sled season about to kick it into overdrive!

[bwt3650]

Ski season and sled season about to kick it into overdrive!

It’s hard not to get really excited about the look today. Hope it holds, as this would turn into one of the best Decembers in ski land in quite a few years. It’s nice that there’s multiple ways to get there; synoptic storms ,long upslope periods, decent cold shots; and no grinch in sight. I’m going to hang on for the ups and downs of model runs in the next few days, though.


.

[backedgeapproaching]

Pretty cool graphics from BTV. Haven't seen this before.

 

[mreaves]

55 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Pretty cool graphics from BTV. Haven't seen this before.

 

I like it when they do interesting stuff like that. 

[mreaves]

Speaking of BTV, they’ve upped our max potential. 

Here is their latest map. 

[EMontpelierWhiteout]

Always love the feeling of anticipation ahead of the first big snowstorm.  My wife being a teacher, even get that nostalgic feeling waiting to see school closing list expand each time you check.  Love to see models consolidating around Boston to Cape Cod track.  And the front end thumps with these type of storms can be awesome.  

[dmcginvt]

1 hour ago, EMontpelierWhiteout said:

Always love the feeling of anticipation ahead of the first big snowstorm.  My wife being a teacher, even get that nostalgic feeling waiting to see school closing list expand each time you check.  Love to see models consolidating around Boston to Cape Cod track.  And the front end thumps with these type of storms can be awesome.  

53 yrs old and I'm still like a school kid.  Do they still cancel school?  I figured after the pandemic it would just be zoom school

 

 

[EMontpelierWhiteout]

7 minutes ago, dmcginvt said:

53 yrs old and I'm still like a school kid.  Do they still cancel school?  I figured after the pandemic it would just be zoom school

 

 

Yep, still cancel, and basically the whole state is already closed.

[J.Spin]

3 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Pretty cool graphics from BTV. Haven't seen this before.

Thanks for passing those along – very neat presentation that I haven’t seen them use before.

[J.Spin]

2 hours ago, mreaves said:

Speaking of BTV, they’ve upped our max potential. 

I took a quick look at the map and saw that it looked similar to before, so didn’t think much about any changes until I saw what you wrote. Once I actually checked online, I see that the point forecast numbers went up substantially here at our site – projected accumulations are in the 10-20” range through Saturday night, and the local mountains run in the 16-26” range for the period. That still generally jives with the 12-18” on maps down here in the valley, although the higher elevations would really be hitting that next shading level of 18-24” along the spine.

I think the jump in the numbers is from a bit more confidence for some heavier snow in that second phase of the storm that’s anticipated later on Friday. They have been talking about the 700 mb frontogenetic forcing in the discussions, but since it’s had staying power they must be incorporating that potential:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

634 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

Then as we head into Friday early evening, short term mesoscale guidance are showing elevated instability coinciding with 40 units of omega in the favorable dendritic snow growth region. This is due to the 850-700mb circulation deepening and closing off over southern New England. Both the NAM and RGEM continue to depict an impressive banding of moderate to locally heavy snowfall possible Friday afternoon into evening, associated with a nearly stationary area of strong 700mb frontogenetic forcing.

[J.Spin]

45 minutes ago, dmcginvt said:

Do they still cancel school?

 

36 minutes ago, EMontpelierWhiteout said:

Yep, still cancel, and basically the whole state is already closed.

It’s funny, when I was reading the BTV NWS forecast discussion and saw the following:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

634 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

.SYNOPSIS...

Travel will be very difficult on Friday, with both morning and evening commutes affected due to heavy snowfall rates.

 

And then I read the details on each time period in the discussion, and I though… there’s no way most schools are going to try to open tomorrow – heavy snow during just one of the commute periods would be enough to close, so with both it’s got to be a slam dunk.  After that I texted the family that I suspected schools will be closed tomorrow, and it wasn’t long before we got notifications from my wife’s school and my younger son’s school that they were closed.  Based on the timing of anticipated periods of heavier snowfall, it seems like a no brainer.

[dmcginvt]

37 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

It’s funny, when I was reading the BTV NWS forecast discussion and saw the following:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

634 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

.SYNOPSIS...

Travel will be very difficult on Friday, with both morning and evening commutes affected due to heavy snowfall rates.

 

And then I read the details on each time period in the discussion, and I though… there’s no way most schools are going to try to open tomorrow – heavy snow during just one of the commute periods would be enough to close, so with both it’s got to be a slam dunk.  After that I texted the family that I suspected schools will be closed tomorrow, and it wasn’t long before we got notifications from my wife’s school and my younger son’s school that they were closed.  Based on the timing of anticipated periods of heavier snowfall, it seems like a no brainer.

My kid graduated Stowe in 2014 and they rarely closed for anything less than a foot in all those years and it had to come fast.  I totally get the regional schools closing though.  But I see they are closed tomorrow!  Good for all the kids WOOOO!  

[mcglups]

The White Mountains Community College down the street from my home has "College Closed" listed on their big sign, so I'd have to think the surrounding K-12 schools will likely be closed. During my evening walk around Berlin it was evident via trucks, gas stations, and backyard operations, that folks are gearing up to officially start the snow mobile season with this storm. It is quite impressive to see "snow" in the forecast for over 36 hours, bring it on!

[#NoPoles]

Light snow, temp around 33 degrees

[backedgeapproaching]

1 hour ago, dmcginvt said:

My kid graduated Stowe in 2014 and they rarely closed for anything less than a foot in all those years and it had to come fast.  I totally get the regional schools closing though.  But I see they are closed tomorrow!  Good for all the kids WOOOO!  

My kids school closes ALOT it seems over the past 5-6 years.  Its a pretty large area kids come from for the school, not to mention they are tied into Bennington and Rutland as well. 

[mreaves]

9 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

My kids school closes ALOT it seems over the past 5-6 years.  Its a pretty large area kids come from for the school, not to mention they are tied into Bennington and Rutland as well. 

When I was in grades 2-7 I went to school in Barre City. There were 5 or 6 neighborhood schools that went up to 5th grade, a middle school for 6th-8th and then the high school. Everybody walked to school or maybe their parents drove them, though that was rare. There were no buses and schools never closed. I’m not trying to sound like old cranky guy, it’s just the way it was. As you mentioned, now kids are trucked from a much wider area, it makes transport that much trickier. 20 years ago or more, Barre City closed the neighborhood schools and built a consolidated K-8 school and now buses kids. They have snow days now. And I understand it. 

[dmcginvt]

6 minutes ago, mreaves said:

When I was in grades 2-7 I went to school in Barre City. There were 5 or 6 neighborhood schools that went up to 5th grade, a middle school for 6th-8th and then the high school. Everybody walked to school or maybe their parents drove them, though that was rare. There were no buses and schools never closed. I’m not trying to sound like old cranky guy, it’s just the way it was. As you mentioned, now kids are trucked from a much wider area, it makes transport that much trickier. 20 years ago or more, Barre City closed the neighborhood schools and built a consolidated K-8 school and now buses kids. They have snow days now. And I understand it. 

What area does Spaulding cover outside of Barre and Barre City?