NNE Cold Season Thread 2022/2023

[Saguaro]

These past few weeks I've been back in Maine again. Last weekend I made the drive from western Maine up to Montreal to see a friend for a few days. The route went through the White Mountains and Vermont before reaching Quebec. Here's a few pictures from the journey.

Rt 302 in the White Mountains was packed with tourists looking at the colors:

 

I crossed the border at a town called Derby Line in Vermont. Some of the foliage there was still vibrant. This one is just on the Quebec side:

 

Facing the other direction, an old customs house and post office:

 

On the border looking into the top of Vermont:

[powderfreak]

Some of those border towns are wild. Like one sidewalk in Canada the other in the US.  I think there are a couple buildings up there literally bisected by the international border.

A little different than the border environment down along Mexico/US.

[mreaves]

10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Some of those border towns are wild. Like one sidewalk in Canada the other in the US.  I think there are a couple buildings up there literally bisected by the international border.

A little different than the border environment down along Mexico/US.

The border goes through the library in Derby Line

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, mreaves said:

The border goes through the library in Derby Line

That’s the one!  I thought I remembered it splitting a main building.

[Saguaro]

Yea that library is actually the building in the second picture. The border runs through the center of it. It was closed when I was there so I wasn't able to look inside.

Just down the way in western Stanstead the provincial Quebec route 247 is bisected down the centerline by the border as well. The houses on the right side are in Vermont and the left side Quebec:

 

Facing the other direction, the white and gray house beyond the corner is also split by the border:

35 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Some of those border towns are wild. Like one sidewalk in Canada the other in the US.  I think there are a couple buildings up there literally bisected by the international border.

A little different than the border environment down along Mexico/US.

Much different for sure. I have a picture when I went down to Nogales in southern AZ a while back, I'll have to see if I can find it.

[bwt3650]

12 hours ago, J.Spin said:

 

 

 

 

I saw the conversation about December vs. March as wintry months and found it very interesting – it was surprising to see March coming out on top in some parts of the region.  While I wouldn’t say the two months are absolutely night and day, December clearly wins with respect to being wintry in this area.  Average December snowfall is in the 30-40” range, whereas March is in the 20-30” range, December has an average of 11 to 12 accumulating storms, while March averages 7 to 8 storms, and I have to think December easily wins in terms of colder average temperatures.  March would probably win in terms of snowpack, and maybe frequency of larger storms, but I’d have to run the numbers on those.  December actually tops all months with respect to number of storms, and until a few seasons ago, it was the month with the highest average snowfall here at our site.  The run of relatively poor snowfall Decembers as of late (only one December that was modestly above average in almost a decade!) has seen February pull ahead of December in terms of average snowfall now, but it will be interesting to see where that race goes in the future if we can see a return to some snowier Decembers.

Regarding some of the other parameters that were discussed, the mean date for the start of permanent winter snowpack here at our site is December 2^nd, so on average, snowpack will be present for essentially the entire month.  With the level of sunlight at that time of year, it’s just really hard to get rid of snow once it’s down.  Sunny days are sparse to begin with at that time of year, so it’s not the sun taking out the snowpack, it’s most likely an especially potent warm system that does it.

Thanksgiving is typically a bit too early for the start of the permanent winter snowpack down at this elevation, but it’s happened four times in the 16 years of my data set, so that percentage is at 25.0%, or a quarter of the time.  Average occurrence of white Thanksgiving is obviously much higher, and that currently sits at 68.8%, so around 2/3 of the time.

 

12 hours ago, J.Spin said:

 

 

 

 

I saw the conversation about December vs. March as wintry months and found it very interesting – it was surprising to see March coming out on top in some parts of the region.  While I wouldn’t say the two months are absolutely night and day, December clearly wins with respect to being wintry in this area.  Average December snowfall is in the 30-40” range, whereas March is in the 20-30” range, December has an average of 11 to 12 accumulating storms, while March averages 7 to 8 storms, and I have to think December easily wins in terms of colder average temperatures.  March would probably win in terms of snowpack, and maybe frequency of larger storms, but I’d have to run the numbers on those.  December actually tops all months with respect to number of storms, and until a few seasons ago, it was the month with the highest average snowfall here at our site.  The run of relatively poor snowfall Decembers as of late (only one December that was modestly above average in almost a decade!) has seen February pull ahead of December in terms of average snowfall now, but it will be interesting to see where that race goes in the future if we can see a return to some snowier Decembers.

Regarding some of the other parameters that were discussed, the mean date for the start of permanent winter snowpack here at our site is December 2^nd, so on average, snowpack will be present for essentially the entire month.  With the level of sunlight at that time of year, it’s just really hard to get rid of snow once it’s down.  Sunny days are sparse to begin with at that time of year, so it’s not the sun taking out the snowpack, it’s most likely an especially potent warm system that does it.

Thanksgiving is typically a bit too early for the start of the permanent winter snowpack down at this elevation, but it’s happened four times in the 16 years of my data set, so that percentage is at 25.0%, or a quarter of the time.  Average occurrence of white Thanksgiving is obviously much higher, and that currently sits at 68.8%, so around 2/3 of the time.

With the next few weeks looking fairly dismal, I feel like we might be starting behind up here.  Not sure the actual data, but I feel like the past 3-4 winters here, we were seeing snow by the first or second week of November.  November definitely moves quick with the transition to winter though. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

So is there actual border patrol up there? It looks like you can just drive right into Canada and not even know it lol

[mreaves]

7 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

So is there actual border patrol up there? It looks like you can just drive right into Canada and not even know it lol

Yes. There are sensors in remote areas as well.  There is a snowmobile trail that runs along the border cut too. Sorry about the pics being sideways. Can’t rotate from my phone. 

[powderfreak]

7 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

So is there actual border patrol up there? It looks like you can just drive right into Canada and not even know it lol

There is but this is why I commented on it being different than Mexico/US.  Walls, barbed wire, big stations and endless patrols… vs friends who grew up in N.VT talking about riding their ATVs across the border many times on the hundreds of off-road vehicle paths.  Most crossings trigger sensors but most of the time no one is coming after you.  One friend said occasionally they’ll come find you and escort you back to your side of the woods.

Some of those border crossings though are literally like a house with one maybe two Agents in them. People cross them for daily life.

[tamarack]

Quebecois from Estcourt and nearby villages cross into Estcourt Station (pop ~20) to get cheaper US gas, though up there even the US fuel is more costly than in more southerly parts of Maine.

[DavisStraight]

Looking at the map there looks like a multi family home that is split by the border, that would mean the people in front are in Canada and the people in back Vermont. How tough could it be to walk around the building or vice versa?

[Saguaro]

13 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

So is there actual border patrol up there? It looks like you can just drive right into Canada and not even know it lol

I saw cameras and the border patrol does have a presence. I imagine it's a pain for those living in the houses on the Vermont side of QC247 just to leave their driveways.

Here you can see a CBP suv at the hilltop watching who drives into Vermont to make sure they stop at the port of entry:

The red apartment building is split by the border as well.

 

5 hours ago, tamarack said:

Quebecois from Estcourt and nearby villages cross into Estcourt Station (pop ~20) to get cheaper US gas, though up there even the US fuel is more costly than in more southerly parts of Maine.

There's an Irving station in Derby line that was filled with Quebecois getting gas. The price was about 10 cents higher than further down 91 at the next exit, but that's still lower than Quebec gas. The store employees inside were even fluent in French.

 

[alex]

21 hours ago, bwt3650 said:

 

With the next few weeks looking fairly dismal, I feel like we might be starting behind up here.  Not sure the actual data, but I feel like the past 3-4 winters here, we were seeing snow by the first or second week of November.  November definitely moves quick with the transition to winter though. 

I was having the same thought, but it feels like a positive thing. We’ve had early snow in recent years followed by pretty pathetic winters, this seems more like the first few winters I spent up here, when you had to wait a little for it, but once it got going, it was game on. No idea if that’s how things will evolve, of course - but it’ll be fun to see!

[tamarack]

On 10/22/2022 at 11:05 PM, bwt3650 said:

 

With the next few weeks looking fairly dismal, I feel like we might be starting behind up here.  Not sure the actual data, but I feel like the past 3-4 winters here, we were seeing snow by the first or second week of November.  November definitely moves quick with the transition to winter though. 

We've been a bit spoiled here by Novembers 2018 and 2019, with continuous cover beginning on the 10th and 11th, respectively.  Only 2002 (17th) is even close and the only other year in which continuous cover started in November was 2014, with its 13" dump on 11/26-27.  20 of 24 years have seen bare ground in December, though sometimes only for a day or two.

[J.Spin]

On 10/22/2022 at 11:05 PM, bwt3650 said:

With the next few weeks looking fairly dismal, I feel like we might be starting behind up here.  Not sure the actual data, but I feel like the past 3-4 winters here, we were seeing snow by the first or second week of November.  November definitely moves quick with the transition to winter though. 

There’s nothing obvious in terms of snow on the ensembles for the next week or two, but your point is noted about November and that quick transition to winter.  In October, you definitely have to have those bouts of below normal temperatures to get into the snow, but at least in the mountains around here, it’s not as big a deal when you get to November.  The mean average temperature for November on Mt. Mansfield is 29.8 F, so even at that point of the season we’re talking below freezing in terms of the mean.  By the end of the month that temperature is down to 24.7 F, so there’s even some room for above average temperatures.  If the pattern is simply clear weather and above average temperatures (which Novembers can occasionally do), then not much is going to happen in terms of snow, but fronts coming though typically give us some shots below freezing.

In terms of starting behind, we’re still in that “it doesn’t really matter” stage that I’ll hear many of the SNE crew talk about down there in November and December, since it’s too early to really matter in terms of affecting the winter snowpack.  The mean snowpack start date for Mt. Mansfield is November 16^th though, so at that point it’s time to start thinking about the potential for starting behind.  We’ve been a bit spoiled with some of these early November starts in the past few years as Tamarack mentioned, so that can play into the perception as well.

[J.Spin]

On 10/22/2022 at 11:05 PM, bwt3650 said:

With the next few weeks looking fairly dismal, I feel like we might be starting behind up here.  Not sure the actual data, but I feel like the past 3-4 winters here, we were seeing snow by the first or second week of November.  November definitely moves quick with the transition to winter though. 

 

On 10/23/2022 at 8:40 PM, alex said:

I was having the same thought, but it feels like a positive thing. We’ve had early snow in recent years followed by pretty pathetic winters, this seems more like the first few winters I spent up here, when you had to wait a little for it, but once it got going, it was game on. No idea if that’s how things will evolve, of course - but it’ll be fun to see!

 

22 hours ago, tamarack said:

We've been a bit spoiled here by Novembers 2018 and 2019, with continuous cover beginning on the 10th and 11th, respectively.  Only 2002 (17th) is even close and the only other year in which continuous cover started in November was 2014, with its 13" dump on 11/26-27.  20 of 24 years have seen bare ground in December, though sometimes only for a day or two.

The comment about recent pathetic winters got me curious about the past several seasons in that respect, so I went to the data to check.  Maybe it’s been different over in New Hampshire (I think there was a recent season where New Hampshire over into Maine especially, was running relatively low in terms of snowfall compared to the rest of the region).  It doesn’t feel like any of the past few seasons around here have really been way down at the pathetic level.

Last season saw the least snowfall of the past four, so maybe that plays into the perception, but the average snowfall from the past four seasons here is 157.6”, which is right around average for our site.  The 2020-2021 season was about average for snowfall, and I can’t remember the specifics from 2018-2019, but snowfall pushing 200” around here in the valley is definitely solid.  Even the 145.7” average from the past three seasons isn’t horrible.  If I go back even a couple more seasons, the snowfall numbers were again solid.  The mean snowfall from the past six seasons actually ends up above average, and I’d argue we really haven’t had a dud since that infamous 2015-2016 season.  Maybe we’re “due” for an uptick after the past three seasons, but if we look at the past six seasons in aggregate, I’m not sure – maybe we actually owe Mother Nature a bit.  Hopefully we don’t owe her anything because we paid our dues in 2015-2016, and we’re slowly recovering back to our real snowfall averages.

2021-2022: 134.4”

2020-2021: 160.6”

2019-2020: 142.1”

2018-2019: 193.2”

2017-2018: 167.2”

2016-2017: 186.5”

I do recall a recent season where it seemed like valleys around here did better with respect to their average snowfall than the mountains did.  It would be good to hear from PF about the mountain perspective from the past few seasons – I know we had that recent season where the mountain snowpack was running along at pretty low levels for a while, but I’m not sure if the season as a whole stayed down in the pathetic zone.  Snowpack and snow depth days can certainly play a part in the overall winter feel, if retention is especially poor for some reason, but as a single metric for a winter, I think snowfall trumps everything else.  You can’t melt snow that you never receive, and snowfall is what equates to the highest quality ski days for most of the season, whether through contribution to powder days, or just the routine refreshers to keep surface quality up.

I do agree about that early snow in recent years though – as Tamarack said, we’ve sort of been spoiled in that regard.  In the past four seasons we’ve had some absolutely outrageously early (as in early November in a couple cases) starts to the winter snowpack in the valleys, and we’ve also had snow on the ground at our house for the past six Thanksgivings.  We’ve obviously got a good shot of having white Thanksgivings around here, but Novembers can’t maintain an early starting pace like that every season.

[klw]

On 10/23/2022 at 1:22 PM, Saguaro said:

I saw cameras and the border patrol does have a presence. I imagine it's a pain for those living in the houses on the Vermont side of QC247 just to leave their driveways.

Here you can see a CBP suv at the hilltop watching who drives into Vermont to make sure they stop at the port of entry:

The red apartment building is split by the border as well.

 

There's an Irving station in Derby line that was filled with Quebecois getting gas. The price was about 10 cents higher than further down 91 at the next exit, but that's still lower than Quebec gas. The store employees inside were even fluent in French.

 

Then came the Post 9/11 crackdown:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/a-town-where-buying-gas-can-get-you-in-big-trouble/article25425851/

[tamarack]

23 hours ago, J.Spin said:

 

 

The comment about recent pathetic winters got me curious about the past several seasons in that respect, so I went to the data to check.  Maybe it’s been different over in New Hampshire (I think there was a recent season where New Hampshire over into Maine especially, was running relatively low in terms of snowfall compared to the rest of the region).  It doesn’t feel like any of the past few seasons around here have really been way down at the pathetic level.

Last season saw the least snowfall of the past four, so maybe that plays into the perception, but the average snowfall from the past four seasons here is 157.6”, which is right around average for our site.  The 2020-2021 season was about average for snowfall, and I can’t remember the specifics from 2018-2019, but snowfall pushing 200” around here in the valley is definitely solid.  Even the 145.7” average from the past three seasons isn’t horrible.  If I go back even a couple more seasons, the snowfall numbers were again solid.  The mean snowfall from the past six seasons actually ends up above average, and I’d argue we really haven’t had a dud since that infamous 2015-2016 season.  Maybe we’re “due” for an uptick after the past three seasons, but if we look at the past six seasons in aggregate, I’m not sure – maybe we actually owe Mother Nature a bit.  Hopefully we don’t owe her anything because we paid our dues in 2015-2016, and we’re slowly recovering back to our real snowfall averages.

2021-2022: 134.4”

2020-2021: 160.6”

2019-2020: 142.1”

2018-2019: 193.2”

2017-2018: 167.2”

2016-2017: 186.5”

I do recall a recent season where it seemed like valleys around here did better with respect to their average snowfall than the mountains did.  It would be good to hear from PF about the mountain perspective from the past few seasons – I know we had that recent season where the mountain snowpack was running along at pretty low levels for a while, but I’m not sure if the season as a whole stayed down in the pathetic zone.  Snowpack and snow depth days can certainly play a part in the overall winter feel, if retention is especially poor for some reason, but as a single metric for a winter, I think snowfall trumps everything else.  You can’t melt snow that you never receive, and snowfall is what equates to the highest quality ski days for most of the season, whether through contribution to powder days, or just the routine refreshers to keep surface quality up.

I do agree about that early snow in recent years though – as Tamarack said, we’ve sort of been spoiled in that regard.  In the past four seasons we’ve had some absolutely outrageously early (as in early November in a couple cases) starts to the winter snowpack in the valleys, and we’ve also had snow on the ground at our house for the past six Thanksgivings.  We’ve obviously got a good shot of having white Thanksgivings around here, but Novembers can’t maintain an early starting pace like that every season.

Lot different here the past 3 winters, dropping our running average from 90" to 88", while the 3 before were all nicely AN.

2021-22:     67.1"
2020-21:     52.5"  2nd lowest snow total, ahead of only the 48.2" of 2015-16.
2019-20:     85.1"   Helped by 22.0" from March 23 thru May 9.
2018-19:   109.2"
2017-18:   105.5"   Most recent AN snow in December, March.
2016:17:    125.3"   Included 21" storms in Dec, Feb and a 15.5" blizzard on March 14-15.
 

[mreaves]

I really didn't have an issue with how much snow fell last winter, I think I recorded 96".  My issue was that it always felt like it was followed by a warm up.  I like retention and depth in my snowpack and last year featured neither.

[dryslot]

Last year sucked here, Just like the year before too.

[MRVexpat]

4 hours ago, J.Spin said:

I do recall a recent season where it seemed like valleys around here did better with respect to their average snowfall than the mountains did.  It would be good to hear from PF about the mountain perspective from the past few seasons – I know we had that recent season where the mountain snowpack was running along at pretty low levels for a while, but I’m not sure if the season as a whole stayed down in the pathetic zone.  Snowpack and snow depth days can certainly play a part in the overall winter feel, if retention is especially poor for some reason, but as a single metric for a winter, I think snowfall trumps everything else.  You can’t melt snow that you never receive, and snowfall is what equates to the highest quality ski days for most of the season, whether through contribution to powder days, or just the routine refreshers to keep surface quality up.

I do agree about that early snow in recent years though – as Tamarack said, we’ve sort of been spoiled in that regard.  In the past four seasons we’ve had some absolutely outrageously early (as in early November in a couple cases) starts to the winter snowpack in the valleys, and we’ve also had snow on the ground at our house for the past six Thanksgivings.  We’ve obviously got a good shot of having white Thanksgivings around here, but Novembers can’t maintain an early starting pace like that every season.

I seem to remember that being last year. After a promising late November (seems like that's been the case ever since Killington agreed to host the WC) things really slowed down until late Feb at which point C/NVT received decent snowfall but also endured some large warm ups. I think the Mansfield stake didn't break average until like mid/late April last year haha. I believe it lagged pretty far behind for most of the year. 

[powderfreak]

5 hours ago, MRVexpat said:

I seem to remember that being last year. After a promising late November (seems like that's been the case ever since Killington agreed to host the WC) things really slowed down until late Feb at which point C/NVT received decent snowfall but also endured some large warm ups. I think the Mansfield stake didn't break average until like mid/late April last year haha. I believe it lagged pretty far behind for most of the year. 

Yeah last year was 242” at the Stowe 3,000ft level which left a lot to be desired.

Mansfield snow depth peaked at 62” at the end of April, ha.

Last year was rough, IMO. I also feel like we’ve had a few seasons in a row of “meh”. Nothing truly stands out.

[alex]

46 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah last year was 242” at the Stowe 3,000ft level which left a lot to be desired.

Mansfield snow depth peaked at 62” at the end of April, ha.

Last year was rough, IMO. I also feel like we’ve had a few seasons in a row of “meh”. Nothing truly stands out.

Averages can be deceiving too. Of course, I’ve been here about 7 years and from what I read the first half of those were AN, the second BN which contributes to the feeling, but while the last few winters may have been OK “on average”, the lack of big, sustained snowpacks is what made them feel not so great. Having 2 feet of powder wiped out by massive rainstorm doesn’t scream great winter to me, even though on paper it’s still 2 feet of snow. That’s why I’d rather have a constant NW wind induced upslope month than active coastals with the risk of cutters. Of course, in past years we’ve also had great period with combinations of synoptic and upslope and not much melting, and that’s the holy grail. 

[bwt3650]

The last two were below normal up here and December skiing has been terrible.  It looked great at Thanksgiving (I think Killington actually did the best with almost two feet in that storm), but fizzled fast and was just "ok" until late season.  I feel like the constant upslope was what was lacking last year and totally agree about the "feel" of a good winter not just about the number, but the overall snow pack, lack of warm ups and days with snow in the air.  January was tough up here too because there wasn't a ton of upslope and it was brutally cold, even for northern Vermont.  I remember multiple days of double digit below zero wind chills with very little upslope around.  The late March/Early April kind of saved the season in my eyes, but as mentioned, the Mansfield snow stake was well below normal until mid March.  I remember the conversation of can it get down to 15-16 levels.  I haven't been around long enough to know the relationship between slow starts up here and the season (if there is any) but I'm perfectly fine with punting October and November in favor of a sustained rocking December through March.  I would be nervous for the first part of the season though, if it doesn't start to look promising in 2-3 weeks.  And I know early season snow is always good for the ski business.  The big city ski season is Thanksgiving through Presidents Day.  

[wxeyeNH]

For the past couple of days it seems the models have been all over the place as to where today's rain band would setup.  West of me, east of me.  Well it seems I will end up somewhere near the bullseye.

Moderate rain and warm 62/59  About .85" so far today

 

[Patriot21]

When I got home today around 4 I had about 1.25" and it was 62 degrees

[mreaves]

11 minutes ago, Patriot21 said:

When I got home today around 4 I had about 1.25" and it was 62 degrees

Wow. I had about .25” today and we aren’t all that far apart as the crow flys. 

[Patriot21]

7 hours ago, mreaves said:

Wow. I had about .25” today and we aren’t all that far apart as the crow flys. 

I work down in Hanover and it rained almost all day down there, almost on the verge of heavy a couple of times. Maybe I was just far enough east to get some of that. The brooks are flowing pretty good.

[tamarack]

1.15" here for monthly total of 6.41", 3/4" A and wettest month since Oct 2019.

[Saguaro]

On 10/25/2022 at 11:51 AM, klw said:

Then came the Post 9/11 crackdown:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/a-town-where-buying-gas-can-get-you-in-big-trouble/article25425851/

Things were far less stressful at the borders before 9/11. Didn't even need a passport back then for either Canada or Mexico. From what I hear, in the US/Canada border towns, during those times they didn't block off all the side streets that crossed the border and the residents of border towns regularly went across on them without hassle. The Escourt station debacle certainly didn't help existing tensions between Quebecois and US residents.