NNE Cold Season Thread 2022/2023

[Ginx snewx]

2010 on this date

[bwt3650]

2010 on this date

Where is that?


.

[powderfreak]

21 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Where is that?


.

If I know Ginxy it’s Sunday River.  Also looks like it could be East Fall at Killington looking into the Canyon area but I don’t think the lift aligns right.

[Ginx snewx]

37 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Where is that?


.

 

15 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

If I know Ginxy it’s Sunday River.  Also looks like it could be East Fall at Killington looking into the Canyon area but I don’t think the lift aligns right.

Kmart but Stowe etc got smokes as well

[powderfreak]

14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

Kmart but Stowe etc got smokes as well

I thought the big snows were later in the month.  Interesting.  The Stake had like 20-24” settled depth I think at the end of the month.

The big one I remember was Wilma’s moisture getting entrained in a coastal storm.  I thought that was more like the 25th of October.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

I thought the big snows were later in the month.  Interesting.  The Stake had like 20-24” settled depth I think at the end of the month.

The big one I remember was Wilma’s moisture getting entrained in a coastal storm.  I thought that was more like the 25th of October.

Stowe had 25 inches 15/16th October 2010

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Stowe had 25 inches 15/16th October 2010

Oh I’m an idiot.  I was thinking of October 2005.

October 2010 was the wettest and whitest October on record at Mt. Mansfield, VT. The precipitation total of 14.71 inches (374 mm) topped the old record of 14.43 inches (366 mm) set in October 2006. The snowfall total of 34.1 inches (86.6 cm) broke the previous record of 31.8 inches (80.8 cm) set in October 2005.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Oh I’m an idiot.  I was thinking of October 2005.

October 2010 was the wettest and whitest October on record at Mt. Mansfield, VT. The precipitation total of 14.71 inches (374 mm) topped the old record of 14.43 inches (366 mm) set in October 2006. The snowfall total of 34.1 inches (86.6 cm) broke the previous record of 31.8 inches (80.8 cm) set in October 2005.

Excellent winter

[powderfreak]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Excellent winter

Yeah that’s my favorite winter I’ve experienced here to be honest.  It was just steady and constant.

[CoastalWx]

2 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The patriots had a infamous snow game in mid October that was not really forecast as max dynamic cooling occurred during the game there And surprised forecasts which primarily had accumulating snow above 1k in forecasts . I drove to weenie ridge in Princeton that had 4” and just down the road at 1k had only 1 as they were definitely away from the max dynamic cooling that led foxboro at like 350’ to accumulate . I have no recollection of what happened further NW in central New England mountains 

That was 2009. The game against the Titans.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

That was 2009. The game against the Titans.

Damnnn you are right . Thanks for the clarification 

[CoastalWx]

21 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Damnnn you are right . Thanks for the clarification 

I won’t forget that game.   

[DavisStraight]

38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I won’t forget that game.   

The game they blew them away? I think I just got some flakes here, nothing like Foxboro.

[eyewall]

I am back home but what a fun trip that was. I am still going through a lot of photos and will link to a high res gallery when ready. Anyway here are some from Isle La Motte or should I say Isle La Haunt.

 

[OceanStWx]

11 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I won’t forget that game.   

I was there. It was a triple bunner for sure.

I was calling BOX from the parking lot giving them updates on the precip mix.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I was there. It was a triple bunner for sure.

I was calling BOX from the parking lot giving them updates on the precip mix.

We had some flakes in Dorchester but nothing like the silver dollar paste balls like you had.

[bwt3650]

Kmart but Stowe etc got smokes as well

Ahh, I see it now. Downdraft leading into dipper with the canyon lift should have given it away. Where’s it shot from, north ridge? Need a big early start like that this year.


.

[eyewall]

That 2010 shot is amazing! I was not in VT for that one. Anyway here is my higher res gallery for the better foliage shots I got on my trip:
https://jeremygilchrist.smugmug.com/Fall-Foliage-Adventure-2022/

[mreaves]

6 hours ago, eyewall said:

That 2010 shot is amazing! I was not in VT for that one. Anyway here is my higher res gallery for the better foliage shots I got on my trip:
https://jeremygilchrist.smugmug.com/Fall-Foliage-Adventure-2022/

Awesome work, as usual.  The last one with the fog creeping in against the blue sky might be my favorite.  What is the pond with the row boats in it and buildings on the shore?  Is it the trout club in Stowe?

[alex]

16 hours ago, eyewall said:

That 2010 shot is amazing! I was not in VT for that one. Anyway here is my higher res gallery for the better foliage shots I got on my trip:
https://jeremygilchrist.smugmug.com/Fall-Foliage-Adventure-2022/

Knowing how hard it is for foliage color to show in picture makes you realize how incredible these photos are. Amazing job!

[eyewall]

1 hour ago, alex said:

Knowing how hard it is for foliage color to show in picture makes you realize how incredible these photos are. Amazing job!

I appreciate that and thank you!

[eyewall]

10 hours ago, mreaves said:

Awesome work, as usual.  The last one with the fog creeping in against the blue sky might be my favorite.  What is the pond with the row boats in it and buildings on the shore?  Is it the trout club in Stowe?

The pond with the boats is near the trout club in the Nebraska Valley. That area is strange as there is a public trail right next to their property which I have hiked before. I also had to make sure to take off from the public areas before the road to the actual club. I loved that spot because of the landscape itself and the fact you leave the crowds behind during foliage time. The fog shots are actually from a rest stop off I-84 on the way home where NJ, NY, and PA come together.

[eyewall]

It feels like it did in VT here now. Nice to have real fall here as well. In the NC High Country winter has arrived with lows in the teens this morning and some light snow and rime.

 

[J.Spin]

On 10/12/2022 at 12:30 PM, bwt3650 said:

That's not a bad upslope look early-mid next week.  Tons of time, but that looks like it could produce meaningful snow and a decent snowmaking window for the early season starters.

 

On 10/12/2022 at 1:53 PM, J.Spin said:

That signal for snow has actually been on the GFS for at least a week now, and that’s pretty impressive work at 2+ weeks out for a deterministic output if it remains steady and comes to fruition.  The key factor is of course that overall trough moving through the area, which the ensembles show.  If you’ve got a trough bringing reasonably cool air into the area, and a surface low that sets up shop in (or even just passes through) the Maine/Maritimes region, you’re certainly talking snow potential at this time of year in the Northern Greens.

As a skier, I generally find the GFS great with these northerly systems around here that don’t require complicated phasing or lots of other marginal nuances.  I guess every model is going to be better with those setups vs. the more complicated ones, but the GFS ease of accessibility, output, robustness, and reliability just puts it out front for me when it comes to scheduling.  Two weeks out is a lot to ask, but we’re getting into the realm of one week, where one can certainly start checking their schedule to accommodate the potential.  Sometimes it ends up just being a dusting or a coating, but with the potential there it’s good to plan ahead.  The couple rounds of snow we’ve had so far this season haven’t really been at the level to think about getting the boards ready, but this next one is a different setup as currently shown.

We’ll see which direction this heads over the next week, but the BTV NWS does have the possibility noted in their most recent discussion:

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

1026 AM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

As of 325 AM EDT Wednesday

...higher terrain snow possible early next week as the cold pool aloft and upper trough drop into the area.

We're now into that window of time discussed earlier in the thread, and as you can see from the BTV NWS forecast discussion below, it's really just a chance for a few snow showers (and it sounds like some have been hitting northwest Vermont thus far).  The trough is coming through as expected, with those sub 0C 850 mb temperatures capable of delivering snow, but there’s really no low pressure present off to the east of us that would have set things up for more notable snows.  It looks like what we’ve been getting is thanks to good “ol’ reliable” Lake Ontario and friends, putting some moisture in the flow.  The upper level low just sort of sat around in the Great Lakes before moving this way, and generally seemed to petered itself out, but I did see some reports of up to 18 inches out there when I was watching TWC.  So it’s certainly a trough that brought some nice early season snows, and that’s even without the benefit of elevation that we have around here.

The next window for potential snow seems to be around the end of the month based on the runs of some of the models.  There also seemed to be a bit of a blip of a window around the 23^rd or so, but it looked like that was just something to do with that potential coastal system.  There’s nothing too pronounced at this point, but we’ll see of anything develops in the next couple of weeks; snow windows are certainly increasing as more troughs come through and temperature normals continue to decrease.

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

1052 AM EDT Wed Oct 19 2022

.SYNOPSIS...

Upper low pressure continues to bring lake effect showers along the St Lawrence Valley with instability showers over and adjacent to Lake Champlain as well as mountain rain and snow showers in the Adirondacks into Thursday.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

As of 1032 AM EDT Wednesday...Light showers have be ongoing over northern Chittenden and southern Franklin counties; at times, producing light snow pellets.

Large closed upper low continues to spin over the Great Lakes and North Country with our region under dry air intrusion aloft. The cold core of the low will be infiltrating into the Adirondacks and Vermont bringing 925-850mb temperatures down to/below 0C supporting chances for higher elevation snow showers.

[#NoPoles]

This autumn has progressed remarkably how one might write about as a text book transition in a Tip-opian Universe. The green chlorophyll noticeably dulls by the the end of August. The first maples taunt  splashes of fiery red in an August farewell, while the birches and poplar stay with their summer green. September temps step down as the month inches towards October. The first frosts kick off the real foliage color by mid September. Birches and Poplars start showing their Aumtun yellows and the Beeches show off their pleasantly pleasing spectrum of tangerine and goldenrod. The Maples peak first- the 3rd and 4th week of September while the rest of the species peak end of September first week of October. The Maples are the first to bid farewell and enter their 7 month slumber. October progresses and the past peak burnt orange lingers a while in stark contrast with the monotone landscape of stick season.  October frosts increase in frequency as all of the trees tuck themselves in for a long winter's respite. The first snows threaten an appearance, and lay their first velvety blanket in November. The quiet stillness takes hold in November, as the darkness chases away the sunlight. 

[wxeyeNH]

A friend of mine sent me this picture.  It was taken in 2016, another great foliage.  Alex, if you zoom in I think you can see your "Moose Lodge"

[powderfreak]

The weather this afternoon was phenomenal.  Full sunshine, temps upper 50s, dews in the 20s... dry mild sunshine.

Had to leave work a little early to make sure we had some daylight to wander around outside with man's best friend.  The forest floor is just as colorful as the tree canopy now in the lower elevations.

[alex]

10 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

A friend of mine sent me this picture.  It was taken in 2016, another great foliage.  Alex, if you zoom in I think you can see your "Moose Lodge"

Yep, you can totally see my property!

[J.Spin]

19 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I agree, it’s all because it’s truly the darkest month of the year and getting that nice white blanket with festivities really brightens the mood.

The problem with December is that it is statistically, from a climo standpoint, the easiest month to be punted by Mother Nature.  It’s the most likely month to fail of the Dec/Jan/Feb/March period in terms of snowfall.

 

19 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Getting good permanent snow cover by Tday is extremely rare outside of NNE elevations.

Getting a white T-day isn't too hard but still uphill climb....prob like 20-25% shot in ORH and way less in BOS.

I think these are the White T-days in ORH in the past 4 decades:

1985, 1989, 1994, 1996, 2002, 2005, 2014, 2018. Thats 8/37.

 

19 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

You need to move up to like central VT or NH at elevation for it to be normal to have plenty of snow already by mid-December. Or into NW MA or S VT big elevations with the buried bodies.

 

18 hours ago, tamarack said:

Only 24 years here, but Dec has averaged 18.7" with coefficient of variation 63% while March runs 16.4" with CV 78%.  March is a bit odd because it's had 5 years with 30" but no others above 19.3".  The "more big storms in March" has held true here even though December has had storms of 24" and 21" while the biggest in March is 19.9".  That said, March has featured 9 events of 12"+ and December only 4.

 

17 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lake effect areas and upslope areas are by far the best spots for early season snow....the upslope kind of feeds off the leftover lake effect too...esp in VT where they can regenerate dying bands and a boost form Lake Champlain too. In early season, your delta-Ts on the lake temps vs atmosphere are still huge, so you get some prolific stuff at times, and even non-idea setups produce more than they do in mid-winter.

In my time out in Ithaca, you could count on accumulating snow relatively frequently starting in mid/late November right until Xmas break when we went home.

Synoptic snows don't start becoming more reliable until mid-December usually and for southeastern coastal areas, often later than that as you are well aware.

I saw the conversation about December vs. March as wintry months and found it very interesting – it was surprising to see March coming out on top in some parts of the region.  While I wouldn’t say the two months are absolutely night and day, December clearly wins with respect to being wintry in this area.  Average December snowfall is in the 30-40” range, whereas March is in the 20-30” range, December has an average of 11 to 12 accumulating storms, while March averages 7 to 8 storms, and I have to think December easily wins in terms of colder average temperatures.  March would probably win in terms of snowpack, and maybe frequency of larger storms, but I’d have to run the numbers on those.  December actually tops all months with respect to number of storms, and until a few seasons ago, it was the month with the highest average snowfall here at our site.  The run of relatively poor snowfall Decembers as of late (only one December that was modestly above average in almost a decade!) has seen February pull ahead of December in terms of average snowfall now, but it will be interesting to see where that race goes in the future if we can see a return to some snowier Decembers.

Regarding some of the other parameters that were discussed, the mean date for the start of permanent winter snowpack here at our site is December 2^nd, so on average, snowpack will be present for essentially the entire month.  With the level of sunlight at that time of year, it’s just really hard to get rid of snow once it’s down.  Sunny days are sparse to begin with at that time of year, so it’s not the sun taking out the snowpack, it’s most likely an especially potent warm system that does it.

Thanksgiving is typically a bit too early for the start of the permanent winter snowpack down at this elevation, but it’s happened four times in the 16 years of my data set, so that percentage is at 25.0%, or a quarter of the time.  Average occurrence of white Thanksgiving is obviously much higher, and that currently sits at 68.8%, so around 2/3 of the time.

[tamarack]

Though your overall pack retention isn't quite as good as here, yours begins earlier.  Only 7 of 24 T-Days have been white here (29%), with 4 being within continuous cover.  Average date for permanent pack works out to exactly 6.5 and median date is 12/5.  Range is from Nov 10 in 2018 to Jan 7 in 2011.  Last day of continuous pack averages April 6 with median the 5th.  Earliest is March 15 in 2016, latest April 23 in 2001.  Average length of continuous cover is 117 days, median 120, range from 81 in 15-16 to 163 in 18-19.