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Hurricane Ian


Scott747
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Just now, MANDA said:

Looks like Englewood, Murdock, Port Charlotte, Punta Gorda and Lake Suzy are primed to get into the western and NW eye wall over next 30-90 minutes.  Going to be bad.  Fort Myers area in prime surge area they are getting lambasted by onshore flow and will continue to be for a while longer.  Surge still rising there.

They’re in for huge surge in Ft Myers for hours still. When the eye passes, wind will turn west which is still right into the bay. And that’s when the big surge into Charlotte Harbor will start (not as bad as Ft Myers/Cape Coral). 

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000
WTNT64 KNHC 281901
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
300 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...IAN ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING IN
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ONGOING...

A Weatherflow station at Tarpin point in Cape Coral reported
sustained winds of 77 mph (124 km/h) with a gust up to 118 mph (190
km/h). A River, Estuary, and Coastal Network station at Redfish
Pass, Florida, recently reported a pressure of 942 mb (27.81
inches).


SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 82.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF FT MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake/Beven/Papin


.

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1 minute ago, MANDA said:

Based on radar at 3:00 center of the eye looks to be right over northern end of Pine Island - near Pineland / Bokeelia on the northern end of the island.

I know someone on pine island, lives right on a canal. No idea why they are there still, setting up a Skylink in the eye. Not too bad so far, so they say, but that's because they are on the north end of the island and the surge is not on for them yet.

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2 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

000
WTNT64 KNHC 281901
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
300 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...IAN ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING IN
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ONGOING...

A Weatherflow station at Tarpin point in Cape Coral reported
sustained winds of 77 mph (124 km/h) with a gust up to 118 mph (190
km/h). A River, Estuary, and Coastal Network station at Redfish
Pass, Florida, recently reported a pressure of 942 mb (27.81
inches).


SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 82.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF FT MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake/Beven/Papin


.

Think TPC has a typo there.  It can't be 20 miles west of both those locations.

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000
WTNT64 KNHC 281910
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
310 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IAN MAKES LANDFALL IN
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...

NOAA Doppler radar imagery indicates that the eye of Ian made
landfall along the southwestern coast of Florida near Cayo Costa
around 305 PM EDT (1905 UTC). Data from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Ian's maximum sustained winds
were estimated to be near 150 mph (240 km/h). The latest minimum
central pressure estimated from reconnaissance data is 940 mb
(27.75 inches).


SUMMARY OF 310 PM EDT...1910 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 82.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WNW OF FT MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.75 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake/Papin/Beven/Stevenson


.

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2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

150mph 940mb now. Don't think we saw a cat 5 landfall but it was real close

Extremely close. They may upgrade that pre-landfall period on reanalysis, but it looked to me that Ian got right up to the line and maybe pulled back a bit based on the recon observations.

No difference for the landfall zone, though. The damage there will be catastrophic. 
 

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5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Extremely close. They may upgrade that pre-landfall period on reanalysis, but it looked to me that Ian got right up to the line and maybe pulled back a bit based on the recon observations.

No difference for the landfall zone, though. The damage there will be catastrophic. 
 

Definitely. Impacts are the same whether it was cat 4 or 5. Absolutely devastating 

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The combination of 150 mph winds, storm surge and the fact Ian is taking it’s sweet time sightseeing at 9 mph means the people along the track will be sitting in 5+ hours of hurricane strength winds.   
 

Loss of life is unfortunately a high possibility with this one, especially given the older population and stubbornness against evacuation.

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4 minutes ago, geddyweather said:

Fort Myers GoM Tidal Gauge starting to really climb now with storm surge. This is located well behind the barrier islands in downtown, just northeast of the Caloosahatchee Bridge. 

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=tbw&gage=fmrf1

And that was nearly 45 minutes ago and way upstream from most of Cape Coral.

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