Eskimo Joe Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Sarasota ASOS reported a wind gust to 53kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Storm with a wobble to the east. At the point where these minor wobbles are very significant. Captiva and Sanibel getting perilously close to the eye wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, Crazy4Wx said: Don’t forget the 150mph winds in Tampa Bay area . Those winds for the Tampa Bay area have been dialed back in this morning's forecasts I believe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MuddyWx Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Storm with a wobble to the east. At the point where these minor wobbles are very significant. Captiva and Sanibel getting perilously close to the eye wall. Yea, you can see that east move here pretty well. Closing in.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Eye is really clearing out last few frames on visible... 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 That Sanibel camera at Lindgren & East Gulf is horrifying. You could see the road when I started watching 10 minutes ago, now all submerged and rising fast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, geddyweather said: That Sanibel camera at Lindgren & East Gulf is horrifying. You could see the road when I started watching 10 minutes ago, now all submerged and rising fast. Link? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 minute ago, geddyweather said: That Sanibel camera at Lindgren & East Gulf is horrifying. You could see the road when I started watching 10 minutes ago, now all submerged and rising fast. The surge will come in very rapidly with the eyewall coming onshore. The much higher wind will pile in the water. Soon that same surge is probably coming for Cape Coral as their wind increases/changes direction to more onshore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATDoel Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Am I reading the NHC recon plan correctly, there's a three hour gap in recon right now? I remember when Michael made landfall, they were buzzing around the entire eyewall for hours, why would they have a big gap in recon for Ian? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Seems to be more or less stair stepping towards the coast. More North the last few frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmosk Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Just now, beanskip said: Link? https://www.mysanibel.com/live-street-cams 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 First extreme wind warning just issued: Quote An extreme wind warning is in effect for Cape Coral FL, Bonita Springs FL, Estero FL until 12:45 PM EDT for extremely dangerous hurricane winds. Treat these imminent extreme winds as if a tornado was approaching and move immediately to an interior room or shelter NOW!. https://twitter.com/NWSTampaBay/status/1575134808707018752?s=20&t=ykf9_kXdUYDtrAeW2TQR1g 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Just now, beanskip said: Link? https://www.mysanibel.com/live-street-cams?utm_campaign=SanCapChamber&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=SanCapChamber Lindgren & East Gulf west is the one I'm watching. White mailbox. Wasn't far up but post move fasts, apologies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 My eyes may be playing tricks on me….. but if you look close you can see the actual flashes of lightning reflecting off other clouds in the eyewall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, geddyweather said: https://www.mysanibel.com/live-street-cams?utm_campaign=SanCapChamber&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=SanCapChamber Lindgren & East Gulf west is the one I'm watching. White mailbox. Wasn't far up but post move fasts, apologies. Stop sign tells the story 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Water is rising FAST in Sanibel. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Sanibel/Captiva look to be in the eyewall now. That same water rise will be in Charlotte Harbor shortly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 The frictional convergence enhancement is definitely in play. I wish there was a plane in there, likely an unquestionable Cat 5 right now, if we had the data. That eastern jog is bringing the inner region of constant spiral bands (and also this region is the extent of the CDO) very close to the SE FL metro areas. Currently these 'inner bands' extend as far as the Everglades in Broward. I think it'll get here. In the meantime, constant 20-40 mph gusts even without any rain. Further, the weather could get quite crazy in SE FL when this hits land and angular momentum spreads out rapidly. Angular momentum spreading out should come in the form of enhanced spiral band activity. Also, it is a clear and hot day in Cuba, and the CAPE from there is being advected right into South Florida. So although things have been quiet for several hours, I don't think it will be quiet for long here, and this has strong potential to be a memorable hurricane event in SE FL. P.S. I am only 130 miles from the eyewall of a cat 5 hurricane. it's crazy to think about. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Looks like another robust uptick in convection too over the past 15-30 minutes on the northern and western eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terdferguson Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Coffeepot bayou in St Pete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 The latest NHC discussion (#24 for future archival) is absolutely worth reading. Eric Blake talks about the worth of the hurricane hunters and Tampa Bay doppler radar. Wish I could post it but I'm mobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 8 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Stop sign tells the story That has to be at least 4 feet of water in that location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 11AM Update no change in max sustained SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.3N 82.5W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WNW OF NAPLES FLORIDA ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drummer Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: The latest NHC discussion (#24 for future archival) is absolutely worth reading. Eric Blake talks about the worth of the hurricane hunters and Tampa Bay doppler radar. Wish I could post it but I'm mobile. [quote] 000 WTNT44 KNHC 281458 TCDAT4 Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter data was absolutely critical this morning in diagnosing the rapid intensification of Ian, despite both planes undergoing multiple eyewall penetrations experiencing severe turbulence. That data supported an intensity of about 135 kt a few hours ago. Since that time, high-resolution Tampa Doppler radar data has been sampling the eyewall near 10,000 ft with winds up to 155 kt, indicating that Ian is on the threshold of category 5 status. The maximum winds are set to 135 kt on this advisory. Ian is expected to make landfall in southwestern Florida in the next few hours as a catastrophic hurricane. No changes were made to the track forecast near Florida, except to be faster to come into line with the latest consensus aids. One important change is that Ian is likely to remain more intact as it crosses the Florida peninsula (due to both its stronger initial wind speed and its faster forecast forward speed), and this now increases the threat of hurricane-force winds on the east coast of Florida. This necessitates the issuance of a Hurricane Warning on the east coast of central Florida. While significant re-strengthening of Ian might not occur over the Atlantic Ocean, model guidance has been catching up with a trough interaction from a shortwave over the southern United States, and are stronger than yesterday on Ian's intensity with more baroclinic forcing. Thus, a Hurricane Watch has been issued from northeastern Florida northward up the coast through most of coastal South Carolina. The new intensity forecast is raised from the previous one, near the latest statistical-dynamical guidance. Key Messages: 1. Catastrophic storm surge inundation of 12 to 18 feet above ground level along with destructive waves are expected somewhere along the southwest Florida coastline from Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor. Residents in these areas should urgently follow any evacuation orders in effect. 2. Catastrophic wind damage is beginning along the southwestern coast of Florida today near the landfall location. Hurricane-force winds are expected to extend well inland along near the core of Ian. Preparations to protect life and property should be urgently rushed to completion. 3. Heavy rainfall will spread across the Florida peninsula through Thursday and reach portions of the Southeast U.S. later this week and this weekend. Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flooding is expected across portions of central Florida with considerable flooding in southern Florida, northern Florida, southeastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina. Widespread, prolonged major and record river flooding is expected across central Florida. 4. Hurricane conditions are expected along the east-central Florida coast overnight, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued. Hurricane conditions are possible from northeastern Florida to portions of South Carolina on Thursday and Friday, and a Hurricane Watch has been issued for that area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 26.3N 82.5W 135 KT 155 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 27.3N 82.1W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND 24H 29/1200Z 28.3N 81.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 36H 30/0000Z 29.3N 80.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 30/1200Z 30.8N 80.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 01/0000Z 32.9N 80.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 01/1200Z 34.7N 81.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/1200Z 36.0N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake [/quote] 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyric297 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 9 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Water is rising FAST in Sanibel. A comparison of that area in Sanibel to the way it normally looks. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 That eye wall looks more ominous now then it did an HR ago... Good grief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Always amazes me how these storms will usually hit a brick wall at 155 just to stay just under Cat 5 for records, lol Any time for further strengthening? Because NHC rounds, so until they have enough evidence to support the jump from 135 to 140 kts, then it stays stuck at 155. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, Tatamy said: That has to be at least 4 feet of water in that location. I would say closer to 5'+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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