Hurricane Ian

[Floydbuster]

37 minutes ago, beanskip said:

This "stall in the gulf" thing seems like a thing. I remember the models picking up on that pretty early with Matthew. Bears watching. 

 

Hurricane Isidore in 2002 had similar scenarios. We didn't know whether the trough was gonna pick up Isidore and pull it to the Florida panhandle, or if Isidore would miss the trough and end up milling around in the Gulf of Mexico for days becoming a monster until another trough picked it up and pulled it into Louisiana.

Eventually, the second scenario occurred, but the high pressure that built in during the time Isidore had weak steering currents wound up bumping the hurricane into the Yucatan Peninsula, weakening it from a 934 mb monster to a large pin-wheel tropical storm. The storm never rebuilt it's inner core and by the time it made landfall in Southeast Louisiana, it was just shy of becoming a hurricane.

[cptcatz]

CMC and Icon nearly identical with the eye sitting over my house in 136 hours and TS winds arriving in 120 hours. This could come as a fast surprise to people here in southeast Florida. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

1 hour ago, StantonParkHoya said:

GFS already 300 miles NE of 6z

6Z GFS was at the extreme W end of the 6Z GEFS, or a shift East, especially if some added HH data ingested, would make sense.  I hope Dr. Cowan makes another video today.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

9 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

CMC and Icon nearly identical with the eye sitting over my house in 136 hours and TS winds arriving in 120 hours. This could come as a fast surprise to people here in southeast Florida. 

If any two models said I'd be paying the full deductible on my homeowners' insurance in 5 days, I want the German and Canadian models.  Sort of pointless except for considering wide areas before a center forms and becomes dominant.

[Modfan2]

7 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

6Z GFS was at the extreme W end of the 6Z GEFS, or a shift East, especially if some added HH data ingested, would make sense.  I hope Dr. Cowan makes another video today.

I would think we would need to see some model consistency over the next few runs to see the if this is a trend.

[jrips27]

 

[hawkeye_wx]

The visible loop shows this system already has a pretty decent surface circulation just north of the islands off the Venezuelan coast.  It just needs Fiona to amscray and get its outflow-driven shear out of the picture.

[Normandy]

Looking at the morning model suites, I am starting to believe more in an eastern solution where the cyclone recurves across the FL peninsula.  The GFS is spuriously developing vortices that keep this unorganized until the NW Caribbean.  Morning visible images and ASCAT confirm a tight closed circulation, and I see no reason this doesn't stay consolidated.  This spurious vorticity causes it to get much further west than it would if it were an organized cyclone.  I also think the GFS is underselling the interaction between the first trough and the cyclone.  A trough that strong isn't going to just tug this north and leave it, especially if the storm is already a hurricane upon interaction with the trough. 

[StantonParkHoya]

7 minutes ago, Normandy said:

Looking at the morning model suites, I am starting to believe more in an eastern solution where the cyclone recurves across the FL peninsula.  The GFS is spuriously developing vortices that keep this unorganized until the NW Caribbean.  Morning visible images and ASCAT confirm a tight closed circulation, and I see no reason this doesn't stay consolidated.  This spurious vorticity causes it to get much further west than it would if it were an organized cyclone.  I also think the GFS is underselling the interaction between the first trough and the cyclone.  A trough that strong isn't going to just tug this north and leave it, especially if the storm is already a hurricane upon interaction with the trough. 

Ironically, Levi mentions a stronger solution early is more likely to tug west as it feels impacts of northeasterly sheer.

[wawayanda]

12z GFS is pretty similar to 6z in taking that western track toward Yucatan but then takes an odd jog north at +96h that allows it to shoot the Cuba/Yucatan gap

[Superstorm93]

I may have to eat some crow here. 

The circulation with 98L actually looks like it's tightening up. 

[dan11295]

1 minute ago, Hotair said:

Pardon the ignorant question, but why is this being referred to as TS Newton  over at NHC?  Like what happens to letters between G and N ?

TS Newton is in the EPAC.

[hawkeye_wx]

The Euro is developing even farther northeast this run, and also the upper low digging down into the nw Caribbean is a bit more robust this run.  This run even hits the west tip of Jamaica.

[Hotair]

2 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

TS Newton is in the EPAC.

Thanks. Yes I see that now.  Sites like this one are incorrectly labeling it as Newton 

 

https://patch.com/florida/southtampa/tropical-storm-newton-could-become-seasons-most-significant-storm?utm_source=alert-breakingnews&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=alert

[jrips27]

Yep looks even further north. Likely resulting in a further East outcome once it gets up towards Florida 

[jrips27]

980mb due north into Cuba. This run might be heading towards the Keys? 

[hawkeye_wx]

Man, this run is so far northeast it tracks over the fatter part of Cuba, east of the thin part where Charley tracked.  That would lead to some weakening, plus it won't have much time to recover/restrengthen before hitting far south Florida.

[jrips27]

Well, this is different lol

[hawkeye_wx]

4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Man, this run is so far northeast it tracks over the fatter part of Cuba, east of the thin part where Charley tracked.  That would lead to some weakening, plus it won't have much time to recover/restrengthen before hitting far south Florida.

Even with the land interaction and limited time over the Florida straights, the Euro still shows robust last-minute strengthening.  We're not talking cat 4 or anything, but pretty solid.

[Floydbuster]

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

[hawkeye_wx]

The Euro is also amplifying the eastern US trough again, like some previous runs (prior to last night).  The trough is going to capture the hurricane.

Update:  No capture after all, just swept out to sea.

[Normandy]

I believe the Euro here is showing the easternmost outcome for this system.  More than likely this runs up the coast and comes in a bit further west.  Angle of approach is going to be important.

[olafminesaw]

14 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The Euro is also amplifying the eastern US trough again, like some previous runs (prior to last night).  The trough is going to capture the hurricane.

Update:  No capture after all, just swept out to sea.

It makes landfall in, wait for it...Nova Scotia

[cptcatz]

1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

If any two models said I'd be paying the full deductible on my homeowners' insurance in 5 days, I want the German and Canadian models.  Sort of pointless except for considering wide areas before a center forms and becomes dominant.

How about now that king euro shows the same thing...?

[Normandy]

Another thing to consider, the vorticity is consolidating just east of the ABC islands....which is west of the Euro's consolidation.  In short: SE and SW FL looking like they are in trouble.  I'm fairly confident that GFS solutions won't verify now.

[Superstorm93]

Pretty good shift on the 12z EPS 

[TPAwx]

[Superstorm93]

New run on the left 

[GaWx]

8 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

New run on the left 

That is quite the SE shift of the mean track to across far SE FL, where the mode also is now. Note that the mean member speed is quicker thus allowing for more members to be taken NE early with the trough. The mode on the 0Z was further NW near a Ft. Myers to Melbourne track.