Hurricane Ian

[Windspeed]

I'm surprised with the increase in intensity the east side of the eyewall's returns are weaker in comparison to the rest of the wall.  That has to be closer to the land based radar site so I would think it would be stronger?  Thoughts?

Down shear quadrant. It won't matter when the eastern eyewall starts making landfall however. Frictional convergence will most likely enhance and light that quadrant up like Time Square on New Year's Eve.

[SchaumburgStormer]

Cape Coral's canals are both salt with access to the bay and freshwater. Some of this water will get pushed in and have no easy egress after the storm passes. 

Many many many of these properties are built only 4-6 feet above the canal. Even if the building itself can withstand the surge, the damage to personal property and potential loss of life will be significant. 

[thunderbolt]

Another perspective

[NYC10023]

12 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

I hope anyone in Cape Coral is gone. That area is going to be 15ft+ under water.

They’re not

grew up down there and *everyone* I’ve talked to is staying 

(my brother for instance)

 

 

[CoastalWx]

Winds probably from E-SE at Cape Coral. That will shift to SW as eye moves in and maybe just to NW. That's when it gets real.

[HKY_WX]

1 minute ago, NYC10023 said:

They’re not

grew up down there and *everyone* I’ve talked to is staying 

If I was going to stay I would at least setup shop at an interior area with a masonry/steel structure with several floors (like the hospital). I googled the area and that would prob be the safest place (except for leaving which is what I would do in that area). If you google sat view the area, every neighborhood has a canal running through it and they all connect to the ocean/bay/etc.

[msuwx]

I can tell you from talking personally to someone this morning in Cape Coral.... they are staying but have a 'go' bag ready. I tried to tell them when the surge comes in, it will come quickly and it will then be too late.

[caviman2201]

Look at the surge in this webcam... go back to 2h ago and compare the sea level to now. holy crap

 

[wxeyeNH]

Eye is trying to clear out.  Unlike Michael where the stadium effect eye past over mostly deserted areas if we can get the low clouds to clear there might be some spectacular pictures to come.

[hooralph]

My father in law is riding this out in a house on a canal in Port Charlotte. Could not be convinced to leave.

[BuffaloWeather]

1 minute ago, caviman2201 said:

Look at the surge in this webcam... go back to 2h ago and compare the sea level to now. holy crap

 

low tide is at 10:20 too. 

[Jersey Andrew]

3 minutes ago, msuwx said:

I can tell you from talking personally to someone this morning in Cape Coral.... they are staying but have a 'go' bag ready. I tried to tell them when the surge comes in, it will come quickly and it will then be too late.

Same with friends of mine staying. Irma storm surge forecast did not pan out for Fort Myers area five years ago so they are skeptical of forecast.

[StormChazer]

2 minutes ago, msuwx said:

I can tell you from talking personally to someone this morning in Cape Coral.... they are staying but have a 'go' bag ready. I tried to tell them when the surge comes in, it will come quickly and it will then be too late.

I have some in laws in Tampa, and back when they were in it's sight, they said, "I think we are prepared, so we will ride it out, if not we will drive inland and find a hotel".

People just don't get that by the time you've gauged that it's getting too bad to stay, it's even worse on the roads.

 

Anyways, to stay on topic and not banter too much, you can see the eye on IR really opening up in the last hour, not great timing. 

Cat 5 or not, it doesn't matter at this point in terms of actual damage, it's past the point of no return now.

[dryslot]

Looking at raw data from recon that top number to the right is 157° wind direction and 142kts wind speed.

124200 2610N 08223W 6993 02742 9603 +125 +033 157142 144 105 002 00
124230 2611N 08222W 6960 02817 9659 +107 +031 155140 144 103 009 03
124300 2612N 08220W 6978 02832 9705 +103 +028 155141 144 095 012 00
124330 2613N 08219W 6959 02885 9734 +100 +025 157131 137 090 009 03
124400 2613N 08218W 6960 02906 9769 +093 +022 160121 128 088 010 00
124430 2613N 08216W 6975 02902 9796 +087 +018 162118 120 087 004 03
124500 2613N 08215W 6956 02944 9808 +089 +015 168113 114 081 007 00
124530 2613N 08213W 6987 02917 9822 +092 +014 169108 111 075 006 00
124600 2612N 08212W 6966 02951 9809 +108 +013 167105 107 071 003 00
124630 2612N 08212W 6966 02951 9806 +113 +013 166103 104 072 001 00
124700 2611N 08211W 6966 02950 9800 +115 +013 167103 104 074 002 00
124730 2610N 08211W 6970 02944 9815 +105 +014 169104 104 075 002 00
124800 2609N 08210W 6963 02960 9818 +108 +013 170104 105 /// /// 03
124830 2611N 08208W 6967 02971 9836 +107 +013 169102 104 /// /// 03
124900 2613N 08208W 6967 02980 9840 +113 +013 166098 100 070 001 00
124930 2616N 08208W 6965 02988 9853 +107 +013 163098 098 070 001 00
125000 2618N 08209W 6969 02989 9864 +101 +014 159095 097 067 002 03
125030 2621N 08210W 6964 02997 9872 +098 +013 155094 095 066 001 00
125100 2623N 08211W 6963 03002 9878 +097 +013 151092 093 065 002 00
125130 2625N 08212W 6969 02995 9881 +095 +013 147094 095 063 005 00
125200 2627N 08214W 6966 02999 9882 +093 +013 144095 096 064 005 00
125230 2629N 08216W 6975 02989 9888 +089 +012 139096 096 064 007 00
125300 2631N 08218W 6958 03008 9900 +080 +011 134094 095 061 009 00
125330 2633N 08220W 6971 02991 9894 +082 +012 128092 093 055 008 00
125400 2634N 08222W 6964 03000 9887 +090 +011 127094 095 059 011 00

 

[TPAwx]

13 minutes ago, f2tornado said:

Potential record negative surge in the Tampa area. That's not good for what's on the other side. 

Better to utilize Old Port Tampa Bay gauge for "Tampa area"

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=tbw&gage=optf1

[SchaumburgStormer]

5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

low tide is at 10:20 too. 

Surge is slamming in already. I wonder how long this feed will stay alive. 

[jbenedet]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Winds probably from E-SE at Cape Coral. That will shift to SW as eye moves in and maybe just to NW. That's when it gets real.

The flooding will be from all directions in that area. If the surge misses you directly you still have the canals, rivers, lakes and streams to worry about, and myriad potential outcomes for spill over. 
 

Lake tarpon looks like a prime candidate.

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Looking at raw data from recon that top number to the right is 157° wind direction and 142kts wind speed.

124200 2610N 08223W 6993 02742 9603 +125 +033 157142 144 105 002 00
124230 2611N 08222W 6960 02817 9659 +107 +031 155140 144 103 009 03
124300 2612N 08220W 6978 02832 9705 +103 +028 155141 144 095 012 00
124330 2613N 08219W 6959 02885 9734 +100 +025 157131 137 090 009 03
124400 2613N 08218W 6960 02906 9769 +093 +022 160121 128 088 010 00
124430 2613N 08216W 6975 02902 9796 +087 +018 162118 120 087 004 03
124500 2613N 08215W 6956 02944 9808 +089 +015 168113 114 081 007 00
124530 2613N 08213W 6987 02917 9822 +092 +014 169108 111 075 006 00
124600 2612N 08212W 6966 02951 9809 +108 +013 167105 107 071 003 00
124630 2612N 08212W 6966 02951 9806 +113 +013 166103 104 072 001 00
124700 2611N 08211W 6966 02950 9800 +115 +013 167103 104 074 002 00
124730 2610N 08211W 6970 02944 9815 +105 +014 169104 104 075 002 00
124800 2609N 08210W 6963 02960 9818 +108 +013 170104 105 /// /// 03
124830 2611N 08208W 6967 02971 9836 +107 +013 169102 104 /// /// 03
124900 2613N 08208W 6967 02980 9840 +113 +013 166098 100 070 001 00
124930 2616N 08208W 6965 02988 9853 +107 +013 163098 098 070 001 00
125000 2618N 08209W 6969 02989 9864 +101 +014 159095 097 067 002 03
125030 2621N 08210W 6964 02997 9872 +098 +013 155094 095 066 001 00
125100 2623N 08211W 6963 03002 9878 +097 +013 151092 093 065 002 00
125130 2625N 08212W 6969 02995 9881 +095 +013 147094 095 063 005 00
125200 2627N 08214W 6966 02999 9882 +093 +013 144095 096 064 005 00
125230 2629N 08216W 6975 02989 9888 +089 +012 139096 096 064 007 00
125300 2631N 08218W 6958 03008 9900 +080 +011 134094 095 061 009 00
125330 2633N 08220W 6971 02991 9894 +082 +012 128092 093 055 008 00
125400 2634N 08222W 6964 03000 9887 +090 +011 127094 095 059 011 00

That’s 163.4 mph …insane. 

[terdferguson]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My god....

My Uncle lives in port Charlotte on the water.  He has been in the eye of hurricane Camille (pass Christian, Ms), eye of Charley, and now Ian. He stayed. 

[HKY_WX]

Florida topographic map, elevation, relief (topographic-map.com)

 

Good link to checkout the elevation. Looks like most of Cape Coral is around 4 to 6 meters.

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That’s 163.4 mph …insane. 

Ian is still intensifying at this hour as storms are wrapping around the center of circulation and the eye is becoming more visible as it completes an EWRC.

[GaWx]

 Ian moved from 24.6 N, 82.9 W at 10 PM to 26.1 N, 82.7 W at 9 AM. So, this was a move of only 0.2 east vs 1.5 north the last 11 hours. This equates to an average direction of movement of only 7 degrees vs the 15 degrees that the NHC has been saying. Compared to the 11 PM NHC forecast, it is now 15 miles due west of that projected track point. That may not seem like much, but that makes a significant difference regarding landfall point due to the angle of the FL west coast relative to the direction of movement.

[dan11295]

Eastern "weaker" eyewall is almost to Sanibel Island. Have to watch for friction dragging the core closer to shore. 

[Electric Lizard]

5 minutes ago, terdferguson said:

My Uncle lives in port Charlotte on the water.  He has been in the eye of hurricane Camille (pass Christian, Ms), eye of Charley, and now Ian. He stayed. 

Suggest that he write his SSN on his arm with a Marks-A-Lot.  This is not in any way meant to be humor.  

[caviman2201]

[Floydbuster]

9am video for anyone interested. I certainly didn't expect this type of storm. One for the ages for SW Florida no doubt.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdnFILp2Ur0

 

[beanskip]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Ian moved from 24.6 N, 82.9 W at 10 PM to 26.1 N, 82.7 W at 9 AM. So, this was a move of only 0.2 east vs 1.5 north the last 11 hours. This equates to an average direction of movement of only 7 degrees vs the 15 degrees that the NHC has been saying. Compared to the 11 PM NHC forecast, it is now 15 miles due west of that projected track point. That may not seem like much, but that makes a significant difference regarding landfall point due to the angle of the FL west coast relative to the direction of movement.

I’m sure you are also factoring in the SE to NE orientation of the SW FL coast. 

[SchaumburgStormer]

2 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

Water is regularly washing of the end of the pier. Insane surge already with wave action on top of it. Going to be a long, long day for the W coast of Florida. 

[SnowenOutThere]

26 minutes ago, NYC10023 said:

They’re not

grew up down there and *everyone* I’ve talked to is staying 

Its gonna be bad for Tampa to Fort Myers south, if anyone stays at this point its on them, this storm was pretty well forecasted and surge was predicted. 

[SnowenOutThere]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Ian moved from 24.6 N, 82.9 W at 10 PM to 26.1 N, 82.7 W at 9 AM. So, this was a move of only 0.2 east vs 1.5 north the last 11 hours. This equates to an average direction of movement of only 7 degrees vs the 15 degrees that the NHC has been saying. Compared to the 11 PM NHC forecast, it is now 15 miles due west of that projected track point. That may not seem like much, but that makes a significant difference regarding landfall point due to the angle of the FL west coast relative to the direction of movement.

That cannot possibly be good new for Tampa or Fort Myers, for Tampa it makes the northern eyewall get dangerously close or hit them and for Myers it just increases the already bonkers surge.