Amped Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Just now, ice1972 said: Are the wind velocity radar products measuring speed component away/toward the radar site? The radar sites are pretty far away so only measuring winds well aloft. This also means there's no NWS radar site to wreck for once. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Andrew type damage incoming for the landfall area. It’s gonna be nasty! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Now that is a big boy core 16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 6z GFS has landfall between Englewood and Venice around 5PM. Surprised to see the slight north jog overnight, impressive intensification to Cat 5. Got the family 20 miles north of Tampa yesterday. Light to mod rain here and breeze is picking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Thank goodness for recon. This certainly doesn't look any stronger than a low end cat 4 on satellite 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyEC Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 20 minutes ago, Nibor said: Eye looks clear. Cold cloud tops popping up in the SE quadrant. Maybe a 2nd ERC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Got 4-6 hours until the outer eyewall starts to clip sanibel island. Center makes landfall between 18 and 21z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Looking at the IR meso loop, the presentation peaked about 30 minutes ago. Since then, some of the colder tops and lightning have faded a bit. Perhaps Ian has reached its max. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Well, needless to say this continues to humble me. Just tip my cap and call Mother Nature my daddy 15 3 12 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said: Looking at the IR meso loop, the presentation peaked about 30 minutes ago. Since then, some of the colder tops and lightning have faded a bit. Perhaps Ian has peaked. Just give it a bit for a fresh convective burst to start rotating 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Looking at the IR meso loop, the presentation peaked about 30 minutes ago. Since then, some of the colder tops and lightning have faded a bit. Perhaps Ian has reached its max. Lightning still plentiful on RadarScope. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Wow, certainly wasn’t expected for it to ramp up like this in intensity. Have to think this will be devastating to inland buildings even with the good building codes with this duration of strong winds, and the surge will be horrendous for a wide stretch probably from Ft Myers north. Charlotte Harbor area will be absolutely wrecked, probably much worse than Charley since that was a tiny core. Sarasota area also in for a huge impact with the north jog. Hopefully there can be a bit of a cycle down at least before it makes landfall so it can come in at 140-145 instead of 155. Just wow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Looking at the IR meso loop, the presentation peaked about 30 minutes ago. Since then, some of the colder tops and lightning have faded a bit. Perhaps Ian has reached its max. Looks like it's starting to feel the shear a bit 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Looks like it's starting to feel the shear a bit Really doesn’t matter now, damage has been done. Whether it stays 155mph or weakens to 130mph, or perhaps 110mph, the surge event is going to be catastrophic. Too late in my opinion 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Eye has contracted to 20 nm since the onset of the ERC yesterday. Ian won’t be a borderline category 5 for long. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crocodile23 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 WOW. 387 kA 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Just now, BYG Jacob said: Eye has contracted to 20 nm since the onset of the ERC yesterday. Ian won’t be a borderline category 5 for long. It contracted earlier between 2am and 4am before this RI process 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 http://Check out their stream - live! https://livestormchasing.com/chasers/surge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Ian's western eyewall appears to be nearly as strong as the eastern eyewall! Here are Andy and my explanations for why this may be the case. Hurricanes Michael and Delta saw a similar pattern. 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Watch the sun rise on Ian here: https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/basicLooper.pl?category=goeseastabimesoscale1®ex=00p64um&title=GOES-East ABI Mesoscale 1 - 0.64 um - Band 2&time_drop=show 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Watch the sun rise on Ian here: https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/basicLooper.pl?category=goeseastabimesoscale1®ex=00p64um&title=GOES-East ABI Mesoscale 1 - 0.64 um - Band 2&time_drop=show You and I had the same idea. Morning vis. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 I noticed the GFS and euro yesterday had the strongest 925mb winds on the northwest side too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 If those stronger returns wrap into the eastern side of the eye, it'll probably become a bit more symmetrical (in regards to winds in all quadrants). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 38 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Looking at the IR meso loop, the presentation peaked about 30 minutes ago. Since then, some of the colder tops and lightning have faded a bit. Perhaps Ian has reached its max. Outflow is restricted on the SW side and shear is evedint on IR loop. However, only 4-6 hours to go and storm is thus far doing a good job of fighting it off. Maybe just some slight weakening until landfall but either way it’s a large storm with a large wind field and the impacts are going to be major. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Have to assume an extreme wind warning is coming very soon. Eyewall knocking on the door of the coast next few hours. Also frictional convergence should tighten up the eyewall and close it off again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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