USCG RS Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 12 minutes ago, Nibor said: Just goes to show how unpredictable they are. I mentioned in the other thread that Hurricane Matthew had an EWRC where the inner eye wall bounced around the outer eye wall like one of those old DVD screen savers for what must have been for over 24 hours. Ian seems to have completed this one in around 8-10 hours. I remember during Matthew (I think), we saw essentially perfect conditions for Hurricane development: Two things I remember 1) We saw continual ERCs & 2) The ERCs were relatively rapid and resulted in explosive RI after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Buoy 42026 with 63mph gusting to 85mph wind (time: 0135z) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 SE eyewall convection not overly impressive right now potentially leftover effects from EWRC or possible dry air intrusion. However, lightning ramping up in southern and northern eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Eye looks to be coming back out soon, the inner eyewall seems to have almost completely merged with the Northern eyewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 That ERC was a thing of beauty 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Winds really picking up here, gusting to 30-40 mph even without being in a squall line. Probably because there is an intense spiral band parked just west of me. NE quadrant filling out with storms suddenly, so SE FL is gonna start getting bigger impacts shortly. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-S_Florida-comp_radar-48-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 FWIW GFS is a little north/west this run compared to the previous few. Landfall north of Port Charlotte and moves close to Tampa just inland 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 The pressure rose another 2 mb, to 954 mb, per the latest recon pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 IR presentation is the best it's looked in a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 57 minutes ago, hlcater said: The fact that the deepest convection is actually on the upshear side of the cyclone likely heralds intensification/resilience in the face of shear at least during the next 6-12 hours. Wow. So the shear and dry air not a factor? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 954mb last pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 NOAA NHC Recon Hunters will be dropping a UAS/drone inside Ian tomorrow that will last 3.5hrs. Curious to see what it finds and the data that is collected 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 18 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The pressure rose another 2 mb, to 954 mb, per the latest recon pass. That's kind of conflicting based on satellite presentation improving. Interesting. I guess still residual effects from EWRC. May be a while before we see any intensification or maybe not potentially. Radar presentation now is amazing and lightning going nuts in sw eyewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 3 hours ago, Martytdx said: I'm an amateur - how does one read this chart? Thanks in advance. The wind speeds are the bright colors, regardless of wind direction. in this case, it is a slice from west to east across the hurricane, so west is to the left. The 64 knot winds (hurricane force) are purple and higher, and the 96 knot winds (category 3) are light pink and other pink colors. The isotherms (0 degree C, -12 degree C, -18 degree C) are the small dashed lines that bump up in the middle of the storm. Hurricanes concentrates the warmer air at the eye, due to the latent heat release at the eyewall. The solid black lines are a little confusing as it represents potential temperature. When they dip down, then it is warmer. The 96 knots to maybe 115 knots on the east side of the eye reach very high into the air, about 35000 feet. Winds weaken at 40000 feet. The west side of the storm has some slightly different qualities in terms of how the winds change with height. The gray bump is due to the fact that the sea level pressure is around 950 mb, which is much different than the typical 1000mb. The highest winds are above the surface, but certainly winds of up to 120 knots are not far from the surface. This is a 12 hour forecast from the HWRF, for 06z 4 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Um... okay? BULLETIN Hurricane Ian Special Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1230 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 ...IAN EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...STORM SURGE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS... SUMMARY OF 1230 AM EDT...0430 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 82.9W ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SW OF NAPLES FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the Lower Florida Keys from Big Pine Key westward to Key West. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Hurricane Ian Special Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1230 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 This Special Advisory has been released to issue a Storm Surge Warning for the Lower Florida Keys from Big Pine Key to Key West. The storm surge inundation amounts for the area have been increased to 3 to 5 ft. No other changes were made to the track or intensity forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 0Z UKMET: landfall a bit north of the 12Z and is near Punta Gorda. Exits FL at Cape Canaveral. Then landfall a little north of Charleston: MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 28.09.2022 HURRICANE IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 24.3N 83.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 28.09.2022 0 24.3N 83.0W 961 72 1200UTC 28.09.2022 12 26.0N 82.6W 959 83 0000UTC 29.09.2022 24 27.2N 81.8W 979 58 1200UTC 29.09.2022 36 28.1N 81.0W 990 47 0000UTC 30.09.2022 48 29.4N 79.9W 986 60 1200UTC 30.09.2022 60 31.1N 79.5W 984 51 0000UTC 01.10.2022 72 33.4N 79.7W 986 40 1200UTC 01.10.2022 84 35.0N 80.6W 1001 28 0000UTC 02.10.2022 96 36.0N 80.1W 1006 20 1200UTC 02.10.2022 108 CEASED TRACKING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Based on the radar, ERC is still wrapping up, which explains pressure increase. In my view, it looks like another round of RI about to begin, especially cause convective DMAX is starting. 2 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 The trough interaction has made this an absolute monster of a storm. This one will be the benchmark strike for SW FL. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 minute ago, turtlehurricane said: Based on the radar, ERC is still wrapping up, which explains pressure increase. In my view, it looks like another round of RI about to begin, especially cause convective DMAX is starting. The angle of approach and potential friction Ian is feeling would likely enhance any RI process that commences. Correct me if im wrong, given what I just said and the environment Ian is in, this is not the time to have a major hurricane undergo RI. There's little real estate between Ian and Florida now. Also, the classic limiting factors like dry air and shear have done nothing to limit/hinder Ian. With the deep convection primarily located upshear like what was noted by someone else in here earlier, Ian will continue to be resilient to dry air/shear. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Is anyone else not gawking over the radar/satellite presentation tonight? I know it’s a strong storm but it’s SW side is nowhere near as symmetrical as earlier, it has a ragged eye (remnants of ERC), and it looks like a dry slot is developing east of the core. Satellite is starting to show outflow being restricted to the west and some asymmetrical shape to the CDO. IMO, Ian has peaked. I don’t see why a 5kt increase wouldnt be possible if the eye fully closes but I’m seeing a system that looks past prime this hour 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Ian appears to have been moving steadily N instead of NNE recently. If so, was this expected? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Excellent Radar presentation. Satellite presentation will follow soon. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyEC Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Just now, NorthHillsWx said: Is anyone else not gawking over the radar/satellite presentation tonight? I know it’s a strong storm but it’s SW side is nowhere near as symmetrical as earlier, it has a ragged eye (remnants of ERC), and it looks like a dry slot is developing east of the core. Satellite is starting to show outflow being restricted to the west and some asymmetrical shape to the CDO. IMO, Ian has peaked. I don’t see why a 5kt increase would g be possible if the eye fully closes but I’m seeing a system that looks past prime this hour Eyeball replacement cycle occurred and you are worried about 5 knots when the storm surge just rose 2-4 feet in Marco Island? The IKE has increased and will continue to do so until landfall. I don’t think 7MPH means much now. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Is anyone else not gawking over the radar/satellite presentation tonight? I know it’s a strong storm but it’s SW side is nowhere near as symmetrical as earlier, it has a ragged eye (remnants of ERC), and it looks like a dry slot is developing east of the core. Satellite is starting to show outflow being restricted to the west and some asymmetrical shape to the CDO. IMO, Ian has peaked. I don’t see why a 5kt increase wouldnt be possible if the eye fully closes but I’m seeing a system that looks past prime this hour Yeah I'm skeptical of any major increases in strength. Esp now that it has increased in size. The pressure drops later could go more into expanding wind field instead of strengthening it, at least initially. Not saying 130 isn't achievable but thinking 120-125 is more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyEC Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, GaWx said: Ian appears to have been moving steadily N instead of NNE recently. If so, was this expected? Wasn’t out of the realm of possibility especially given the 0Z GFS. Landfall looks closer to Manasota Key now than Punta Gorda. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, GaWx said: Ian appears to have been moving steadily N instead of NNE recently. If so, was this expected? Definitely looks to be moving north. These small wobbles can have big impacts in actual landfall location. Still a lot of questions as to where this one will wash ashore 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, GaWx said: Ian appears to have been moving steadily N instead of NNE recently. If so, was this expected? Maybe just wobbles? As a personal side, N is better for me as I'm on the southern edge of the 15+ rain forecasts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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