Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 900 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022 ...9 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND FLOODING EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... The Key West International Airport recently reported a sustained wind of 50 mph (80 km/h) with a gust to 63 mph (101 km/h). A private weather station near Coco Plum Beach, near Marathon, recently reported sustained winds of 38 mph (61 km/h) with a gust to 47 mph (75 km/h). SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 83.0W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES $$ Forecaster Bucci/D. Zelinsky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Is it possible that Ian makes a first landfall on the Dry Tortugas? 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martytdx Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 hour ago, Chinook said: latest storm cross-section I'm an amateur - how does one read this chart? Thanks in advance. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 With continued NNE motion, it may come in AT Cape Coral instead of a little north. Hard to tell though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 minute ago, MattPetrulli said: With continued NNE motion, it may come in AT Cape Coral instead of a little north. Hard to tell though. Good heavens. Current heading is 10 degrees. That is NOT Cape Coral. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Good heavens. Current heading is 10 degrees. That is NOT Cape Coral. No need to be rude. Just presenting the idea, accounting for east wobbles. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Starting to see the new eyewall on satellite 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 The 1919 Hurricane is counted as a 927 mb - 150 mph U.S. Landfall in the Dry Tortugas, so I do believe a landfall would count despite the lack of habitation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 The new eye is about 40 miles across. Still has some work to do, but the EWRC appears to be mostly complete 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: The 1919 Hurricane is counted as a 927 mb - 150 mph U.S. Landfall in the Dry Tortugas, so I do believe a landfall would count despite the lack of habitation. If it does make a DT landfall I can see it being a heck of a game show question 20 years from now. Q - “Major Hurricane Ian which caused Billions in damage first made landfall in this part of the United States “ A - What is Dry Tortuga ? 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: The new eye is about 40 miles across. Still has some work to do, but the EWRC appears to be mostly complete Also starting to see lightning increase in the southern part of the outer eyewall in the last hour on radar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Won’t be long before this takes on the ol’ Fibonacci spiral look. Sheer is apparent on northwest side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 This model is calling for Sanibel landfall Bill Karins @BillKarins Our short-range high-resolution weather models are now close enough to landfall for a forecast. This is the High Resolution Rapid Refresh model. Comes out every hour. This run brings #Ian to Sanibel 2 pm 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, Hotair said: This model is calling for Sanibel landfall Bill Karins @BillKarins Our short-range high-resolution weather models are now close enough to landfall for a forecast. This is the High Resolution Rapid Refresh model. Comes out every hour. This run brings #Ian to Sanibel 2 pm I usually hold my tongue, but he should know better than to use the HRRR. 4 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 minute ago, TriPol said: I can't believe Tampa has dodged another bullet. Big rains still look to be an issue there especially just S and E of the city. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Velocities of around 130mph are being shown from the Key west radar in the north and south quads of the storm. Appears to also show that the ERC is very close to complete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 EWRC looks almost complete. At least from radar perspective. Eye has filled in on IR satellite for now. Satellite presentation has temporarily degraded some but could see it start improving as it reorganizes overnight. Shear is the potential fly in the ointment. I'm thinking winds might be down on next recon and pressure either steady or up. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 We have two recon planes investigating Ian at this moment. We should know more soon about the state of intensification and eyewall structure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 9 minutes ago, Hotair said: This model is calling for Sanibel landfall Bill Karins @BillKarins Our short-range high-resolution weather models are now close enough to landfall for a forecast. This is the High Resolution Rapid Refresh model. Comes out every hour. This run brings #Ian to Sanibel 2 pm I really want to comment to this on Twitter but I feel it’s a waste of time. If he’s that ignorant to be using the HRRR right now it will be like talking to a brick wall to make a point. I really wish, as a local met down there, he will focus more on the environment and mesoscale instead of the HRRR’s ever so changing hourly landfall locations. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Big rains still look to be an issue there especially just S and E of the city. Yeah, I am ignorant of what Tampa can handle in terms of 24 hour rain totals but 8-10" looks to be quite possible. Even though they look to avoid the brunt of the hurricane force winds, I would imagine they will still have significant power outages based on the size of the TS wind field? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 The outer eye wall seems to be contracting. Not by much but it's pretty noticeable as the inner eye wall continues to dissolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 20 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: The new eye is about 40 miles across. Still has some work to do, but the EWRC appears to be mostly complete COD radar loop suggests what is left of the original eye will probably merge w/ the new N-ern eyewall fairly soon. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=BYX-N0Q-0-6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1000 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022 ...10 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE... ...EYE OF IAN NOW MOVING OVER THE DRY TORTUGAS... The Key West International Airport recently reported a sustained wind of 52 mph (84 km/h) with a gust to 66 mph (106 km/h). An elevated WeatherFlow station at Smith Shoal Light reported a sustained wind of 61 mph (98 km/h) with a gust of 91 mph (146 km/h). SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 82.9W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM S OF THE DRY TORTUGAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES $$ Forecaster Bucci/D. Zelinsky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Looking at obs in the Keys -- check out that hx to go with the wind 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Looking at Key West webcams, it is windy with rain but the worst weather really seems to be just west of them. There are still people out and about in the downtown area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 RE: An intensifying hurricane into landfall... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 High end flooding occurring in Key West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 New eyewall is starting to contract some in size radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 2:16ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5302Storm Name: IanStorm Number: 09 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 24Observation Number: 07 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 2Z on the 28th day of the monthHighest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mbCoordinates: 24.7N 83.0WLocation: 77 statute miles (124 km) to the W (277°) from Key West, FL, USA.Marsden Square: 081 ( About ) Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1000mb -439m (-1,440 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level. 952mb (28.12 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 28.0°C (82.4°F) 25.7°C (78°F) 85° (from the E) 5 knots (6 mph) 925mb 257m (843 ft) 25.8°C (78.4°F) 25.0°C (77°F) 115° (from the ESE) 8 knots (9 mph) 850mb 1,000m (3,281 ft) 21.8°C (71.2°F) 20.9°C (70°F) 110° (from the ESE) 6 knots (7 mph) 700mb 2,676m (8,780 ft) Other data not available. Information About Radiosonde:- Launch Time: 2:05Z- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.Remarks Section... Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center.Highest altitude where wind was reported:- Location: 24.66N 83.00W- Time: 2:05:20ZLowest altitude where wind was reported:- Location: 24.66N 83.01W- Time: 2:09:14ZMean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):- Wind Direction: 110° (from the ESE)- Wind Speed: 8 knots (9 mph)Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):- Wind Direction: 105° (from the ESE)- Wind Speed: 5 knots (6 mph)- Depth of Sounding: From 707mb to 951mbAverage Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:- Lowest 150m: 155 gpm - 5 gpm (509 geo. feet - 16 geo. feet)- Wind Direction: 95° (from the E)- Wind Speed: 7 knots (8 mph)Sounding Software Version: AEV 30407 Part B: Data for Significant Levels... Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels Level Air Temperature Dew Point 952mb (Surface) 28.0°C (82.4°F) 25.7°C (78°F) 850mb 21.8°C (71.2°F) 20.9°C (70°F) 764mb 17.8°C (64.0°F) 16.4°C (62°F) 700mb 17.2°C (63.0°F) 12.8°C (55°F) Significant Wind Levels Level Wind Direction Wind Speed 952mb (Surface) 85° (from the E) 5 knots (6 mph) 911mb 120° (from the ESE) 9 knots (10 mph) 850mb 110° (from the ESE) 6 knots (7 mph) 707mb 355° (from the N) 2 knots (2 mph) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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