Boston Bulldog Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: What site do you get these on? Been trying to find it. I just tried address under picture and it didn't work https://www.metoc.navy.mil/fnmoc/tropical.html Click on the Satellite Imagery of Tropical Cyclones link. It often gives a "not secure" warning, just as a heads up. Probably one of the more comprehensive pages for TC information 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, NYC10023 said: It has everything in its favor to do so though. nighttime, little to no shear and bath water I thought shear was supposed to ramp up big time by late tonight? If Ian doesn’t close off the new eyewall by then, the shear is going to inject a ton of dry air and erode away the southern periphery of the hurricane. Or so I would think… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, Intensewind002 said: I thought shear was supposed to ramp up big time by late tonight? If Ian doesn’t close off the new eyewall by then, the shear is going to inject a ton of dry air and erode away the southern periphery of the hurricane. Or so I would think… Correct. 15kts by 15z tomorrow and probably 20-25kts by landfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 I thought environment was supposed to degrade precipitously north of Tampa latitude, inland or over water? What’s the environment look like once this is over Orlando? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 FWIW the EWRC looks like it's almost done 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 And both recon planes have turned around, with a single center pass to show for it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Lots of tornadic action from the outer bands crossing into South Florida. I don’t recall hearing of this high level of tornado activity either when Ian approached Caymans or Cuba. Does anyone know what seems to be more favorable in S FL that gives rise to tornado genesis? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 South central Broward county in between Hollywood & Pembroke Pines.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, Hotair said: Lots of tornadic action from the outer bands crossing into South Florida. I don’t recall hearing of this high level of tornado activity either when Ian approached Caymans or Cuba. Does anyone know what seems to be more favorable in S FL that gives rise to tornado genesis? Daytime heating boosting that 0-3KM CAPE helps. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Daytime heating boosting that 0-3KM CAPE helps. That and there’s no one there to report waterspouts 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Inner eye wall looks half open on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, Hotair said: Lots of tornadic action from the outer bands crossing into South Florida. I don’t recall hearing of this high level of tornado activity either when Ian approached Caymans or Cuba. Does anyone know what seems to be more favorable in S FL that gives rise to tornado genesis? This is just a total amateur guess but could be simply because of land area which allows us to know they are there. The islands are tiny compared to Florida so the odds of a tornado hitting one is very low. Maybe there were just as many tornadoes out in the water but we never knew since we had no radar or people to see them. If a tornado forms in the middle of the ocean and no one was around to see it, did it make a noise? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Nibor said: Inner eye wall looks half open on radar. Issue is the south quad of outer eye, but that looks like it’s closing off now. Once that happens the outer eye takes over and inner eyewall will collapse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC10023 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 12 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said: I thought shear was supposed to ramp up big time by late tonight? If Ian doesn’t close off the new eyewall by then, the shear is going to inject a ton of dry air and erode away the southern periphery of the hurricane. Or so I would think… By the time shear affects this, EWRC will be complete 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 There is still intense convection, with lightning, in the inner eyewall, so it will take awhile to complete the cycle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Not everyday you see a PDS Tor Warning with a tropical system 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Recon at 946 mb. Are we sure the ERC os still underway? Lol. Ian is not relaxing whatsoever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Looks like this EWRC will be completed pretty rapidly. Wonder if it’ll have time to strengthen more/consolidate the new eye before landfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, jm1220 said: Looks like this EWRC will be completed pretty rapidly. Wonder if it’ll have time to strengthen more/consolidate the new eye before landfall. It has time but it’s just a matter of “if” Ian can take advantage of the environment it’s in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Lots of lightning in the new eyewall in the last 10 mins 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 7 minutes ago, Hotair said: Recon at 946 mb. Are we sure the ERC os still underway? Lol. Ian is not relaxing whatsoever. Oh yeah still underway. I'd say we're gonna stay in the 940s until that southern eye wall closes off and the inner collapses. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Lots of lightning in the new eyewall in the last 10 mins 1. It’s either completing the EWRC and starting to rapidly intensify again 2. Some dry air entrainment is happening 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Appears to be moving NNE, and not N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 latest storm cross-section 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, Chinook said: latest storm cross-section Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 18Z UKMET came north and is close to the 18Z GFS (maybe a hair south i.e. Grove City) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Here are my Final thoughts...for whatever that is worth haha https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/09/hurricane-ian-to-have-devastating.html 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyes2theskies Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: Appears to be moving NNE, and not N It's tough to tell with an ERC going on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 000 WTNT34 KNHC 272352 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 19A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 800 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022 ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND FLOODING EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 83.0W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay * Dry Tortugas A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Suwannee River southward to Flamingo * Tampa Bay * Dry Tortugas * Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the St. Mary's River * St. Johns River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas * Suwannee River to the Anclote River * All of the Florida Keys * Flamingo to Altamaha Sound * Flamingo to Chokoloskee * Lake Okeechobee * Florida Bay * Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West * Florida Bay * Mouth of St. Mary's River to South Santee River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Altamaha Sound to South Santee River A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 83.0 West. Ian is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion with a reduction in forward speed is forecast tonight and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to pass west of the Florida Keys later tonight, and approach the west coast of Florida within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Ian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is expected tonight through Wednesday. Ian is forecast to approach the west coast of Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). Sustained tropical-storm-force winds have been reported at the Key West International Airport and the Key West Naval Air Station during the last hour. A National Data Buoy Center Site near Sombrero Key recently reported a sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h). The Florida Keys Marathon International Airport just reported a wind gust to 52 mph (84 km/h). The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 947 mb (27.96 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... * Middle of Longboat Key to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft * Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...6-9 ft * Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa Bay...4-6 ft * Suwannee River to Anclote River...3-5 ft * Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound...4-6 ft * Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...4-6 ft * Dry Tortugas...3-5 ft * Flagler/Volusia County Line to Mouth of the St. Mary's River, including St. Johns River...3-5 ft * Altamaha Sound to Savannah River...3-5 ft * St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft * Savannah River to South Santee River...2-4 ft * East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft * Florida Keys...2-4 ft * Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft * Indian Pass to Suwanee River...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected along the west coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area on Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions possibly beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area in the Florida Keys, and will continue overnight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area on the east coast of Florida beginning early Wednesday, and should spread up to Georgia and South Carolina on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba for the next few hours. RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall through Thursday night: * Western Cuba: 6 to 12 inches, with isolated totals up to 16 inches. These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of higher terrain over western Cuba. * Florida Keys and South Florida: 6 to 8 inches, with isolated totals up to 12 inches. * Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 18 inches, with isolated totals up to 24 inches. * Eastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated totals up to 12 inches. Widespread catastrophic flash, urban, and river flooding is expected across central and west Florida beginning midweek. Widespread considerable flash, urban, and river flooding is expected across northern Florida, southeastern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina from the end of the week through the weekend. Limited river flooding is expected over portions of the southeastern United States into the Mid-Atlantic mid-to-late week. TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible through Wednesday across central and south Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the western Caribbean and the Florida Keys, and will spread northward throughout the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/D. Zelinsky/Bucci Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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