40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 16 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: I'm skeptical on their 130mph landfall in FL. Not sure Ian will be able to achieve this with this EWRC that may take a while and if that opens up the core or makes it unstable it could subject it more the the shear that's beginning to impact it. Hard to say. SE part of inner eyewall really degrading now. Truth be told, they probably are, too, but the fact of the matter is that lowering it isn't worth the risk of conveying the wrong message and having some let their guard down. Its relatively trivial in the grand scheme of things... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 11 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Considering an afternoon landfall tomorrow, the timing of this may suck for Florida. Timing wise its prob likely the current ewrc will complete this evening, leading to another period of intensifying before landfall. I looked earlier and there is a branch of the loop current that is now extending up along the coast to the Ft Myers area. Didn’t notice this the last few days, so if you are right Ian would intensify on landfall on top of that warm current 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 8 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: I'm skeptical on their 130mph landfall in FL. Not sure Ian will be able to achieve this with this EWRC that may take a while and if that opens up the core or makes it unstable it could subject it more the the shear that's beginning to impact it. Hard to say. SE part of inner eyewall really degrading now. There's a bit of chicken/egg here though. I read a research paper a few years ago that studied annular hurricanes and how being embedded in a drier surrounding environment can sometimes trigger ewrc's and cause the phenomenon. The model physics take the mid level dry air into account. With the euro showing an intensification period starting on approach tomorrow, I would pay attention. This current reorg is prob already factored into that. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: I looked earlier and there is a branch of the loop current that is now extending up along the coast to the Ft Myers area. Didn’t notice this the last few days, so if you are right Ian would intensify on landfall on top of that warm current If it remains impervious to the shear, then sure....tough to make that call, though. Obviously they should prepare for cat 4. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: There's a bit of chicken/egg here though. I read a research paper a few years ago that studied annular hurricanes and how being embedded in a drier surrounding environment can sometimes trigger ewrc's and cause the phenomenon. The model physics take the mid level dry air into account. With the euro showing an intensification period starting on approach tomorrow, I would pay attention. This current reorg is prob already factored into that. I also believe shear can do the same thing but there’s a threshold for that, correct? Like 25-30kts of shear can induce an EWRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 17 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Considering an afternoon landfall tomorrow, the timing of this may suck for Florida. Timing wise its prob likely the current ewrc will complete this evening, leading to another period of intensifying before landfall. It's possible, but after tonight Ian will be out of warmest waters albeit will still be in plenty warm water and will be encountering increasing shear so not sure how much that will mitigate strengthening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 18z GFS just a tick east at 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If it remains impervious to the shear, then sure....tough to make that call, though. Obviously they should prepare for cat 4. Thanks for the clarification, I tend to focus on the mesoscale a lot in this range and I didn’t see that there the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 18z ICON re-intensifies Ian into a major after leaving FL, and makes landfall in Charleston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATDoel Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 EWRCs are probably one of the hardest aspects of tropical cyclones to forecast. They can take a full day, half a day, or a few hours to complete. Sometimes they start and never get completed, and the core gets exposed to dry air and starts unraveling. Sometimes they start and never get completed, with the original eyewall reestablishing itself. Just too early to have any idea how this one is going to change the landfall intensity tomorrow. 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 minute ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: Thanks for the clarification, I tend to focus on the mesoscale a lot in this range and I didn’t see that there the other day. Thanks for that graphic....I hadn't realized. Will use it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, tiger_deF said: 18z ICON re-intensifies Ian into a major after leaving FL, and makes landfall in Charleston We know that is not happening and I'd make a sizeable wager against it happening. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Truth be told, they probably are, too, but the fact of the matter is that lowering it isn't worth the risk of conveying the wrong message and having some let their guard down. Its relatively trivial in the grand scheme of things... I totally agree and wasn't trying to bash them in anyway. Very tough forecast they had for strength and track. That was just my opinion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, ATDoel said: EWRCs are probably one of the hardest aspects of tropical cyclones to forecast. They can take a full day, half a day, or a few hours to complete. Sometimes they start and never get completed, and the core gets exposed to dry air and starts unraveling. Sometimes they start and never get completed, with the original eyewall reestablishing itself. Just too early to have any idea how this one is going to change the landfall intensity tomorrow. Often times, they just never regather that same initial, pristine structure and thus intensity (I call it the "skunked" look, with ragged CDO, etc)...other times, they end up even more ferocious, thereafter....Katrina was one such example. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 GFS has landfall slightly north of Englewood Wednesday evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 9 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: I also believe shear can do the same thing but there’s a threshold for that, correct? Like 25-30kts of shear can induce an EWRC. Not sure, but I would think any kind of hostile conditions could trigger it. I only brought up dry air bc thats all I see at the current time. I dont see any signs of shear impacting it currently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Ian exiting east coast of Florida back into the Atlantic at 66 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 GFS with absured rainfall totals...the freshwater flooding will be a big story in itself if this comes even close to verifying 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Warmest SST’s ahead of Ian will be on landfall directly over the loop current running up to Ft Myers. Pocket of 86-87 degree SST’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Not sure, but I would think any kind of hostile conditions could trigger it. I only brought up dry air bc thats all I see at the current time. I dont see any signs of shear impacting it currently. Of course, I was reading something awhile back on shear and EWRC and was trying to remember the article. Definitely concerning we are down to dry air and EWRC to hinder Ian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 704 WTNT64 KNHC 272157 TCUAT4 Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 600 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022 ...6 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND FLOODING EXPECTED WITH IAN IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... The Key West International Airport recently reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (66 km/h) with a gust to 60 mph (96 km/h). A WeatherFlow station at the Key West Coast Guard recently reported a wind gust to 54 mph (87 km/h). SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.1N 83.1W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES $$ Forecaster Bucci/D. Zelinsky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 2nd LF of Ian on 18z GFS is near Savanah, GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Hotair said: 704 WTNT64 KNHC 272157 TCUAT4 Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 600 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022 ...6 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND FLOODING EXPECTED WITH IAN IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... The Key West International Airport recently reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (66 km/h) with a gust to 60 mph (96 km/h). A WeatherFlow station at the Key West Coast Guard recently reported a wind gust to 54 mph (87 km/h). SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.1N 83.1W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES $$ Forecaster Bucci/D. Zelinsky Key West airport has now gusted to 63mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duncana12 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: GFS with absured rainfall totals...the freshwater flooding will be a big story in itself if this comes even close to verifying WPC already calling for it latest map: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Pressure is quite a bit higher now as per recon, likely the EWRC doing a number on Ian (for the time being). Edit; looked at the wrong one. Extrapolated pressure on that first pass is 946.6 mb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 19 minutes ago, MANDA said: We know that is not happening and I'd make a sizeable wager against it happening. How do you know? What are you basing this statement on? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Extrapolated pressure is 946.0 min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, mob1 said: Pressure is quite a bit higher now as per recon, likely the EWRC doing a number on Ian (for the time being). Recon just recorded 946 mb. Winds not impressive on this NW-SE fix but but should be higher in the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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