clueless Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1574841988657995776?s=46&t=uQCZBDUZxRGYW9fmAuq_Qw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 This thread will be more heavily moderated going forward. Have fun tracking but post banter in the proper thread. Good luck to any of you folks affected by this storm. 13 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 27 minutes ago, MANDA said: Looks to be tightening up for landfall near or just north of Charlotte Harbor. So is the front going to pass it by and then Ian slips behind it and much more of a west track inland? There would be no way it would move like that if the front was pressing eastward with Ian to east of front? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Storm mode is now activated. 7 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: Storm mode is now activated. Indeed. Please read the announcement guys and act accordingly. 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Looks like EWRC may be beginning or underway. This may limit amount of intensification Ian could have achieved depending on how long it takes. It still could hit cat 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 The first forecasts for storm surge, beginning on Friday for coastal GA and SC have the water level at #4 all time at Fort Pulaski, GA (close to the water level from the October 1947 hurricane) and #10 all time at Charleston, SC (close to the water level from Hurricane David in 1979). The river/water forecasts don’t extend into Saturday yet; I would guess Friday overnight’s high tides would be even higher as Ian gets to Georgia. And all this is without a forecast track yet of Ian making it offshore and headed back toward the GA/SC coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 11 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Looks like EWRC may be beginning or underway. This may limit amount of intensification Ian could have achieved depending on how long it takes. It still could hit cat 4. Looks like the SE eyewall is degrading on radar. Definitely looks like an EWRC is underway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 First reports of tornadoes spawning in Florida from Ian Giovanni Rizzotti (2-1) (80-73) (0-0) @Gio_wx · 5s Debris ball over the Everglades in Miami-Dade County, Florida. Likely a significant tornado over a highly rural area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 4:00 PM public advisory update 451 WTNT64 KNHC 271958 TCUAT4 Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 400 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022 ...4 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE... In the past hour, the Cuba Institute of Meteorology located in Havana reported a sustained wind of 56 mph (90 km/h) with a gust to 87 mph (140 km/h). SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 83.2W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM S OF SARASOTA FLORIDA ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES $$ Forecaster Papin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 That inner eyewall has beefed back up in the past few frames. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 This may be due to the recent hot towers popping in the eyewall, but the eye has clearly been contracting for the past several hours. Unless the inner eyewall dramatically weakens I think recon will find mid-cat 4 FL winds somewhere in the eyewall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 That moat on the southern side looks much more filled in at this time…. Idk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Looks like the moat has really filled in and don’t see the secondary wind max on velocities anymore, thinking whatever attempt we were getting at an ERWC has been aborted for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, tiger_deF said: This may be due to the recent hot towers popping in the eyewall, but the eye has clearly been contracting for the past several hours. Unless the inner eyewall dramatically weakens I think recon will find mid-cat 4 FL winds somewhere in the eyewall I'm not so sure. A lot of the pressure drop has went into expanding wind field instead of strengthening wind field. But I do think we will see an increase in winds on next advisory. Maybe 125-130mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, eyewall said: That inner eyewall has beefed back up in the past few frames. Definitely looks that way on radar, looks like the intense convection is trying to wrap around on both sides along with the moat being filled in. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?parms=BYX-N0Q-1-24-100-usa-rad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 This latest burst of convection on the western side of the eye wall looks to be producing the coldest cloud top temperatures yet. Just eyeballing from the scale but looks like cloud tops probably approaching or even exceeding -80°C. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Okay I may be wrong. Recon just got 117knt sfc wind in northern eyewall 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 The moat feature has almost completely filled in and nice convective band is rotating around from the SW side. Eye is very circular and has been contracting. Tremendous hot tower erupting on NW side. Based on satellite and radar looks to me like Ian is still in intensification mode. We'll see what recon finds. Certainly has not weakened or lost any organization this afternoon. Would expect TPC to either keep track steady or most likely nudge it a slight distance SE for a landfall point. Not by much maybe 10-15 miles based on 12Z models /ensembles and 18Z tropical models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, StormChaser4Life said: Okay I may be wrong. Recon just got 117knt sfc wind in northern eyewall Unless that's contaminated, looks like Ian is trying for Cat4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Ian in process of expanding its eyewall windfield by ~3x 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Unless that's contaminated, looks like Ian is trying for Cat4 It's possible. That seems exceptionally high. But I do think it should be 125-130 on next update maybe 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Not so sure I agree what Webber has there is the new eyewall at this moment. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: Not so sure I agree what Webber has there is the new eyewall at this moment. Yeah I think this may be one of those weird AGW era eye melds 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, Tezeta said: Yeah I think this may be one of those weird AGW era eye melds ?? 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: ?? We have seen it a couple times over the years. Laura was the last I remember 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 hour ago, nwohweather said: Well what worries me is a continued east track and the Gulf Stream. Absolute jet fuel for a weakening system as it goes back out over the water Why does this worry people? Aren't we all here because we love big storms? There wouldn't be 165 members on this thread if we wanted storms to weaken. If people want to live in dangerous places that's there prerogative, I'm not going to stop being a weather enthusiast because people choose to live in high risk areas.. 22 3 3 6 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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