jpeters3 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 minute ago, MattPetrulli said: Little bit of a moat after the southern eyewall. Thinking maybe a little dry air? Everyone free to chime in of course I noticed this too. I think it's subsidence occurring radially inward from the strengthening outer band on the south side. Perhaps the beginnings of the formation of concentric eyewalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 minute ago, jpeters3 said: I noticed this too. I think it's subsidence occurring radially inward from the strengthening outer band on the south side. Perhaps the beginnings of the formation of concentric eyewalls. I thought maybe concentric eyewalls too, but want to wait for recon to make a pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
largetornado Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its probably still trying to resolve some structural deficiencies that resulted from interaction with the higher terrain of Cuba. Is it possibly the start of an eyewall replacement cycle? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Thats a hell of a northern eyewall forming 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Stupid amount of lightning in the northern eyewall 12 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 7 minutes ago, jpeters3 said: I noticed this too. I think it's subsidence occurring radially inward from the strengthening outer band on the south side. Perhaps the beginnings of the formation of concentric eyewalls. Yeah, i think the recon will shed some light on this feature. it's also possible that the moat is a relic of the land interaction, as an earlier poster suggested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Nice sized moat in the south now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Stupid amount of lightning in the northern eyewall This makes me think we are starting to see the effects of increasing southerly shear, which is arguably visibly evident in the visible loop to the south of the storm. Shear will make the inner eyewall lopsided and can "supercharge" the eyewall convection on the downshear flank a bit. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 13 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: Little bit of a moat after the southern eyewall. Thinking maybe a little dry air? Everyone free to chime in of course That’s what I was thinking earlier, radar out of Key West appeared to show dry air working in from west side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AChilders Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 9 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Stupid amount of lightning in the northern eyewall Looks like it it back on course with the NHC, just a little to the east after the earlier wobble 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 The radar at Key West appears to show a second region of strong winds organizing, which may mean that the moat is due to a new eyewall developing. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crocodile23 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 11 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Stupid amount of lightning in the northern eyewall Which radar is this(site or app)? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Treckasec said: The radar at Key West appears to show a second wind region of strong winds organizing, which may mean that the moat is due to a new eyewall developing. I would agree with you, just the west edge seems to be eroding which is concerning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Treckasec said: The radar at Key West appears to show a second wind region of strong winds organizing, which may mean that the moat is due to a new eyewall developing. If correct not a good time to have that happen. It will have time to "recover" / tighten up before landfall. If it did not tighten up then the result would be a much more spread out wind field. We'll have to see how this goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 22 minutes ago, largetornado said: Is it possibly the start of an eyewall replacement cycle? Sometimes interaction with land can help trigger them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, Treckasec said: The radar at Key West appears to show a second wind region of strong winds organizing, which may mean that the moat is due to a new eyewall developing. Looking at this, its def an EWRC IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 96 frame radar image from the COD site. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=BYX-N0B-0-96-100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 14 minutes ago, jpeters3 said: This makes me think we are starting to see the effects of increasing southerly shear, which is arguably visibly evident in the visible loop to the south of the storm. Shear will make the inner eyewall lopsided and can "supercharge" the eyewall convection on the downshear flank a bit. Agreed. I think we may also be witnessesing the first stages of an attempted EWRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 7 minutes ago, Crocodile23 said: Which radar is this(site or app)? Thanks. GRLevel2. The lightning is from a placefile. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Anyone have the 18z hurricane model tracks? Not fully loading on TT. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Anyone have the 18z hurricane model tracks? Not fully loading on TT. Thanks. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Couple of trends with the 00z/12z guidance today: 1.) Big rainfall totals for Florida up into Carolinas 2.) Ian maintains or strengthens up until first US landfall 3.) Ian may emerge back over SE Atlantic Ocean then make 2nd landfall in GA or SC. 4.) Moderate flooding impacts possible up into southern VA this weekend.Definitely watching in Charleston. Wouldn’t be shocked to see even at Cat 1 run up in here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Looks to be tightening up for landfall near or just north of Charlotte Harbor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 first gust of 46 knots at Key West 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Looks to be tightening up for landfall near or just north of Charlotte Harbor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Definitely watching in Charleston. Wouldn’t be shocked to see even at Cat 1 run up in here Agreed, that's where I am. I'm starting on drainage work at home today, but it's something that needed to happen anyway. It's been interesting watching this one run east but there's a lot of time left. Tomorrow will be when a lot of locals really start paying attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Northeast eyewall 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Agreed, that's where I am. I'm starting on drainage work at home today, but it's something that needed to happen anyway. It's been interesting watching this one run east but there's a lot of time left. Tomorrow will be when a lot of locals really start paying attention.Well what worries me is a continued east track and the Gulf Stream. Absolute jet fuel for a weakening system as it goes back out over the water 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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