Hurricane Ian

[wncsnow]

Just now, wncsnow said:

Euro is pretty similar to last nights 00Z run so far 

Its about 30 miles south closer to Port Charlotte

[Santa Clause]

Euro appears to be south again. Hope it gets south of Naples.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

AF308 is doing a buoy drop but other than that we have no recon for a few hours 

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Only way out is for landfall Marco Island on South.  Anything north of there is going to inflict much damage and hurt.  Not sure that Marco Island on south can be pulled off at this point.

Lots of inlets and bays too that will funnel the surge. This is gonna be a bad one for a lot of people. Looks like people there are taking it seriously though and getting out. 

[f2tornado]

1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said:

Euro appears to be south again. Hope it gets south of Naples.

Be careful what you wish for. The Hoover Dike around Okeechobee is widely considered one of the nation's most at risk to fail. Refer to the 1928 storm for a what if scenario. 

[Superstorm93]

Pressure down to 955 and winds up to 120 as of 2 PM 

 

[cptcatz]

10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Extremely symmetrical/well defined eye. Just about picture perfect satellite presentation and definitely primed to go. Fort Myers looking like it’s in a really tough spot. I guess the one hope this doesn’t bring hurt on a lot of people is it somehow keeps trending south past Naples. That whole Tampa to Ft Myers area has exploded in population as others have pointed out, so there’s really no “good” landfall area in that stretch, and it’s also very surge vulnerable especially with a larger storm like this. 

Landfalling south of Naples would bring devestating impacts to the east coast, exactly like Wilma did.  Dade-Broward-Palm Beach is the most populated part of the state and the eye going through there would be nearly worst case scenario.

[wncsnow]

Crawling up through central Florida 

[SnowGoose69]

Euro basically comes in by Venice...depending how fast it moves eastern portions of metro Tampa might still get into the western eye wall with strong winds 

[Allsnow]

[HKY_WX]

If you look at the Hires images, the EURO strengthens Ian all the way till landfall at Charlotte Harbor. Devastating run for them. It's a whole different ball game now that the trough has caught Ian and is pulling it NE. This may act to encourage strengthening all the way till landfall with the additional aid to outflow ventilation. As opposed to meandering storm in the cooler waters near the big bend (further north).

[Normandy]

Seeing this continually slide NNE-NE and constantly be on the right hand side of the guidance even after said guidance corrects east is very unnerving.

[wncsnow]

This run does get it off the Atlantic Coast near JAX and it a little faster than last night 

[Allsnow]

The euro now takes Ian back over the Atlantic while it sits of the Ga/sc boarder by 5pm Friday 

[olafminesaw]

4 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

If you look at the Hires images, the EURO strengthens Ian all the way till landfall at Charlotte Harbor. Devastating run for them. It's a whole different ball game now that the trough has caught Ian and is pulling it NE. This may act to encourage strengthening all the way till landfall with the additional aid to outflow ventilation. As opposed to meandering storm in the cooler waters near the big bend (further north).

Seeing the isobars parallel with the bay like that is certainly unnerving 

[wncsnow]

Just now, wncsnow said:

This run does get it off the Atlantic Coast near JAX and it a little faster than last night 

 

[wncsnow]

What an odd track

[dan11295]

I guess the real question at this point is how much further south can it go? At this point we have ~30 hours left for further corrections. But it seems even closer to Naples is now a real possibility.

[jm1220]

10 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

If you look at the Hires images, the EURO strengthens Ian all the way till landfall at Charlotte Harbor. Devastating run for them. It's a whole different ball game now that the trough has caught Ian and is pulling it NE. This may act to encourage strengthening all the way till landfall with the additional aid to outflow ventilation. As opposed to meandering storm in the cooler waters near the big bend (further north).

Probably hoping for a lucky EWRC at this point. The dry air/cool water saving grace wont happen in time. 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

I guess the real question at this point is how much further south can it go? At this point we have ~30 hours left for further corrections. But it seems even closer to Naples is now a real possibility.

It would have to hook NE pretty much to miss Naples/Marco Island to the south which is a stretch. 

[Brian5671]

The stall over FL appears dead too-more models taking it steadily NE now....

[Eskimo Joe]

Couple of trends with the 00z/12z guidance today:

1.) Big rainfall totals for Florida up into Carolinas

2.) Ian maintains or strengthens up until first US landfall

3.) Ian may emerge back over SE Atlantic Ocean then make 2nd landfall in GA or SC.

4.) Moderate flooding impacts possible up into southern VA this weekend.

[Santa Clause]

5 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

I guess the real question at this point is how much further south can it go? At this point we have ~30 hours left for further corrections. But it seems even closer to Naples is now a real possibility.

Naples South definitely in play with the trends and time left.

[ILMRoss]

the good news: the eye has lost some of its symmetry

the bad news: it's because of anvil spilling over from an absolutely monstrous hot tower 

 

still a lot of room for strengthening, don't want to think about where this bottoms out at 

[gymengineer]

Allan’s graphic, as always, is super helpful to see the range of landfall points and why it’s always so hard to nail down the exact landfall location on the west coast of Florida:

 

 

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The stall over FL appears dead too-more models taking it steadily NE now....

That's good with regards to flooding however the movement NE will still be very slow across the peninsula so someone's gonna get 20-25" minimum. 

Unfortunately the odds of another landfall continue to rise and models that do take that route restrengthen the storm.

[MANDA]

15 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

If you look at the Hires images, the EURO strengthens Ian all the way till landfall at Charlotte Harbor. Devastating run for them. It's a whole different ball game now that the trough has caught Ian and is pulling it NE. This may act to encourage strengthening all the way till landfall with the additional aid to outflow ventilation. As opposed to meandering storm in the cooler waters near the big bend (further north).

Yep, entirely different animal than it coming to the Northern Gulf coast ingesting dry air.  Much more classic scenario and favorable conditions for a major landfall.  Not good.  EURO track verbatim coming in near or a tad north of Charlotte Harbor would bring terrible surge and wind damage.  Like Charley but over a much wider area.

[MattPetrulli]

Little bit of a moat after the southern eyewall. Thinking maybe a little dry air? Everyone free to chime in of course

[lilj4425]

17 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

What an odd track

Gonna hit Clemson right during the NC State prime time game if that track is right. Yeesh.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, MattPetrulli said:

Little bit of a moat after the southern eyewall. Thinking maybe a little dry air? Everyone free to chime in of course

Its probably still trying to resolve some structural deficiencies that resulted from interaction with the higher terrain of Cuba.