Hurricane Ian

[StantonParkHoya]

HWRF still going directly into Tampa Bay

EDIT: Take that back, actually goes in north of Tampa

[Floydbuster]

I think once Ian catches up with his satellite signature, it'll be a full blown Category 4.

[Hoosier]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

UKMET continues leading the trend southward. The 12Z track, in red, goes from halfway between Naples and Ft. Myers to way down at Melbourne:

 

 

 

Is orange the previous track?

[caviman2201]

Lightning wrapped all the way around the eye now... don't see that every day.

 

[gymengineer]

Both the HWRF and HMON are so much more intense at landfall than yesterday’s runs. The HMON shows a Cat 4 landfall just northwest of Ft. Myers and the HWRF shows a mid Category 3 landfall at Indian Shores.

[weatherwiz]

Eye completely wrapped in convection now. Quite the explosion of lighting on all sides in the last 30-minutes (if that)

[Hotair]

Are any of the models running now accounting for the latest intensity recon is finding at this hour?  Ian looks stronger now than NHC had forecast at 11 am.  Those of you who study gulf canes, is it a sound assumption that higher intensity will resist eastward steering more resulting in a more Northward track for longer vs a weaker storm?

[CheeselandSkies]

Where's @ldub23? How's that TS at landfall looking?

[Chinook]

18z cross-section of this storm (HWRF)

 

[AnthonyEC]

2 minutes ago, Hotair said:

Are any of the models running now accounting for the latest intensity recon is finding at this hour?  Ian looks stronger now than NHC had forecast at 11 am.  Those of you who study gulf canes, is it a sound assumption that higher intensity will resist eastward steering more resulting in a more Northward track for longer vs a weaker storm?

Didn’t happen with Charley. 
 

This is already feeling the trough. 

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Is orange the previous track?

Yes, orange is previous. Here's the HM tweet that has this map:

 

[gymengineer]

955 mb

[LeesburgWx]

The current heading on Visible really looks more ENE than NE. 

[StantonParkHoya]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

The current heading on Visible really looks more ENE than NE. 

On its current heading, it landfalls at Port Charlotte

[ATDoel]

So I remember hearing that the HWRF and GFS pull from a lot of the same data when it comes to the track of storms, yet we have the HWRF showing an apocalyptic Tampa strike and the GFS is around Sarasota, why the difference?  The HWRF also has a significantly stronger storm, which also looks more realistic than what the GFS initialized at and is forecasting.

 

[Hotair]

Treyce Jones 

@FLweather_wx said 

In 30-36 hours, 12z HWRF & HMON both show Ian as a high end Cat 4 just off the FL coast. This is looking increasingly concerning. The impacts are likely going to be devastating. Be safe everyone! 

 

worrisome that recon is indeed also showing the type of intensification that could easily take Ian into high end C4 territory.  

[CheeselandSkies]

Just now, ATDoel said:

So I remember hearing that the HWRF and GFS pull from a lot of the same data when it comes to the track of storms, yet we have the HWRF showing an apocalyptic Tampa strike and the GFS is around Sarasota, why the difference?  The HWRF also has a significantly stronger storm, which also looks more realistic than what the GFS initialized at and is forecasting.

 

Global model resolution isn't high enough to accurately model pressures in intense TCs. Values from the GFS and especially the EURO and UKMET shouldn't be taken verbatim.

[ATDoel]

3 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

The current heading on Visible really looks more ENE than NE. 

use the radar for tracking at this point, it's going to be more accurate than the satellite loop.

 

Definitely moving NNE.

[clskinsfan]

Clear mesovortices visible on satellite imaging now. Ian is really starting to bomb out. 

[buckeyefan1]

2 minutes ago, ATDoel said:

why did the new recon turn around?  and here I thought a fully functional plane was actually about to sample the storm, damn!

Please keep your random thoughts in the banter thread 

[CheeselandSkies]

More hot towers firing up on the last few frames of the IR loop, Ian doing more work on its already impressive eyewall.

[Eskimo Joe]

Ian's eye clearing out quickly on visible satellite: https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/basicLooper.pl?category=goeseastabimesoscale1&regex=00p64um&title=GOES-East ABI Mesoscale 1 - 0.64 um - Band 2&time_drop=show

 

[Eskimo Joe]

KNHC issues Vortex Data Message:

951 
URNT12 KNHC 271749
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   AL092022

A. 27/17:07:10Z
B. 23.36 DEG N 083.38 DEG W
C. 700 MB 2713 M
D. 957 MB
E. 115 DEG 21 KT
F. CLOSED
G. C18
H. 101 KT
I. 059 DEG 6 NM 17:05:00Z
J. 146 DEG 101 KT
K. 052 DEG 9 NM 17:04:00Z
L. 96 KT
M. 105 DEG 9 NM 17:11:00Z
N. 199 DEG 109 KT
O. 102 DEG 11 NM 17:11:30Z
P. 9 C / 3056 M
Q. 18 C / 3038 M
R. 10 C / NA
S. 12345 / 07
T. 0.02 / 1.25 NM
U. AF302 2109A IAN    OB 25
MAX FL WIND 109 KT 102 / 11 NM 17:11:30Z

[ROOSTA]

The width is expanding. Whom ever gets into the eyewall is in for a wild ride, damaging too. So wide the State is becoming dwarfed. Not often do you see H force winds gate to gate across.    

[jm1220]

Extremely symmetrical/well defined eye. Just about picture perfect satellite presentation and definitely primed to go. Fort Myers looking like it’s in a really tough spot. I guess the one hope this doesn’t bring hurt on a lot of people is it somehow keeps trending south past Naples. That whole Tampa to Ft Myers area has exploded in population as others have pointed out, so there’s really no “good” landfall area in that stretch, and it’s also very surge vulnerable especially with a larger storm like this. 

[Modfan2]

Question, watching the Melbourne radar, echoes pushing S to N seem to be dying out just north of West Palm; is there drier air coming from N? 

[MANDA]

Based on current trends (models, satellite and radar) I think the furthest north Ian landfalls is Venice.  Most likely landfall IMO between Port Charlotte and Naples.  Clearly looks to me to be moving NNE.  It is feeling the trough.  Barring an ERC (not something that can be forecast) looks to landfall as a strong 3 to possibly low 4?  Satellite presentation is extremely impressive.   Obviously conditions will be the worst near and to the right of landfall location but it is going to be bad over a large area of coastline.   Some areas between Venice and Naples are very surge prone. 

[ldub23]

35 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Where's @ldub23? How's that TS at landfall looking?

That  was  if  it  landfalled  in the  panhandle as you  know. I said  if  it  hit  south of Tampa  it would  be  105 knots which could  be a  bit  low  but  a  major. Its rather amazing to me Ian doesnt  zoom out  NE and after FLA miss the east  coast. Out  in the tropics  if there  is the  slightest barely  noticeable weakness a storm will turn into it  everytime. This  is a  very strong trof.

[MANDA]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Extremely symmetrical/well defined eye. Just about picture perfect satellite presentation and definitely primed to go. Fort Myers looking like it’s in a really tough spot. I guess the one hope this doesn’t bring hurt on a lot of people is it somehow keeps trending south past Naples. That whole Tampa to Ft Myers area has exploded in population as others have pointed out, so there’s really no “good” landfall area in that stretch, and it’s also very surge vulnerable especially with a larger storm like this. 

Only way out is for landfall Marco Island on South.  Anything north of there is going to inflict much damage and hurt.  Not sure that Marco Island on south can be pulled off at this point.

[wncsnow]

Euro is pretty similar to last nights 00Z run so far