yoda Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, AnthonyEC said: CMC initialized 20mb higher than currently reported. Take it with a grain of salt. So did the 00z GFS... so... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Looks like we got an eyewall? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyEC Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 minute ago, yoda said: So did the 00z GFS... so... 48-60 hours out and there are many solutions still on the table. No clue who will be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, AnthonyEC said: 48-60 hours out and there are many solutions still on the table. No clue who will be correct. Thats why I said FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 minute ago, TPAwx said: Hard pass. Serious question since you're from there. Let's say the worst surge scenario is avoided in the event of a landfall farther south. What would 2 feet+ of rain do to the Tampa area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, AnthonyEC said: 48-60 hours out and there are many solutions still on the table. No clue who will be correct. Yeah two camps. The slow crawlers up the west side of Florida the ones getting it across and back into the Atlantic. Which one caves? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Here's a midnight video update for my fellow night owls. Ian is strengthening faster than the videos can be uploaded! Crazy! 4 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Serious question since you're from there. Let's say the worst surge scenario is avoided in the event of a landfall farther south. What would 2 feet+ of rain do to the Tampa area? Not a meteorologist, but I suspect it would cause catastrophic flooding? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 15 minutes ago, Nibor said: Requesting an additional 6hrs over water before land interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Tornadic waterspout likely. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 0Z UKMET: even further south just N of Ft. Myers, exits FL near Cape Canaveral, and then 2nd landfall Charleston: MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 27.09.2022 HURRICANE IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 20.8N 83.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 27.09.2022 0 20.8N 83.3W 984 51 1200UTC 27.09.2022 12 22.8N 83.4W 985 47 0000UTC 28.09.2022 24 24.4N 83.2W 983 49 1200UTC 28.09.2022 36 26.1N 82.5W 982 59 0000UTC 29.09.2022 48 27.4N 81.6W 991 45 1200UTC 29.09.2022 60 28.4N 80.6W 995 46 0000UTC 30.09.2022 72 29.4N 80.4W 993 53 1200UTC 30.09.2022 84 30.5N 79.9W 993 44 0000UTC 01.10.2022 96 33.0N 80.1W 990 38 1200UTC 01.10.2022 108 35.0N 81.1W 999 28 0000UTC 02.10.2022 120 36.4N 80.6W 1005 21 1200UTC 02.10.2022 132 36.8N 79.9W 1008 23 0000UTC 03.10.2022 144 CEASED TRACKING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 15 minutes ago, AnthonyEC said: 48-60 hours out and there are many solutions still on the table. No clue who will be correct. Yeah two camps. The slow crawlers up the west side of Florida the ones getting it across and back into the Atlantic. Which one caves? Gefs spread has increased and now has a handful of members off the east coast. This is at 90 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Tornadic waterspout likely.I’d venture that’s a easy guess there. Helluva couplet. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 10 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Serious question since you're from there. Let's say the worst surge scenario is avoided in the event of a landfall farther south. What would 2 feet+ of rain do to the Tampa area? it would be devastating. To preface, much of the area has minor but disruptive flooding with heavy summer t-storms. That much rain has no place to go. The city/metro has extremely dense vegetation and tree cover (one research outfit rated Tampa the #1 city in the world for tree cover). We obviously have tall palm trees but we have a lot of huge oaks. Massive amounts of trees and branches would come down on properties and streets, power outages would be extensive. All that falling and standing water would do a number on structures. With that stall easterly fetch would also push a ton of water around and carve up east facing shoreline. I'm not a hydrologist so I'm sure there's plenty of other impacts on infrastructure and public health. Overall, a sub-optimal amount of rain and scenario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 The current recon plant's final pass found 961 mb. There has been a bit of a bend/wobble to the nw while this plane has been out there. Every bit of movement to the west of north matters for the long-term track. The 18z Euro moved into Cuba due north of where the center is now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 10 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The current recon plant's final pass found 961 mb. There has been a bit of a bend to the nw while this plane has been out there. Every bit of movement to the west of north matters for the long-term track. The 18z Euro moved into Cuba due north of where the center is now. On radar, it may have wobbled but looks minimal. Also looks to have wobbled back on the NHC track. But agree on longer term path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Ian is cranking right now....might be taking advantage of some land interaction tightening the circulation up. For the first time in its life deep convection surrounds the eye. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 The Cuban radar looks almost due north at the end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 I see a deep trough that is digging and a rapidly intensifying hurricane directly to its south. I am having a hard time seeing this getting further west. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Is it just my eyes or has Ian slowed way below 13 mph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 18 minutes ago, Normandy said: I see a deep trough that is digging and a rapidly intensifying hurricane directly to its south. I am having a hard time seeing this getting further west. Right now it is near 83.6 W with 83.7 W the furthest west 11PM NHC point. So, this looks like it is right in the forecasted path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Formation of Ian's eye today on IR. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 The hurricane models now have it staying a high end Cat 3 up until landfall in Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Euro is slightly further NE than 18z through 24. Safe to say it wasn't a hiccup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 minute ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: The hurricane models now have it staying a high end Cat 3 up until landfall in Florida Which ones? The HWRF and HMON haven't updated since 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Euro has landfall near Sarasota Siesta Key/Venice late Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, WxSynopsisDavid said: Which ones? The HWRF and HMON haven't updated since 18z Early HREF and HMON on paid sites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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