NorthHillsWx Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 Would be a fun time on the board if this misses the trough connection and sits in the middle of the gulf for 3 extra days rotting from a 4 to a 1 or 2 before landfall 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 1 minute ago, Normandy said: As we move closer, there are two potential solutions developing: - Solution 1 misses the connection on the first trough, causing the storm to instead slowly move NNW until eventual landfall on the N GOM cost (still likely Florida Panhandle, but some potential of a Alabama or MS landfall is on the table) - Solution 2 does not miss the connection of the first trough, and instead the storm is yanked NE across SE FL. What's more concerning than even that, the trough does not take the storm out to sea and instead leaves it heading due North into a building ridge above. In short: US is in SERIOUS trouble me thinks with this one. Which is weird. Still think that trough would shove it OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 Synoptically it makes sense. The trough is very transient and fast moving and the storm is very far south. Additionally there is a monster ridge building in behind the first trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, Normandy said: As we move closer, there are two potential solutions developing: - Solution 1 misses the connection on the first trough, causing the storm to instead slowly move NNW until eventual landfall on the N GOM cost (still likely Florida Panhandle, but some potential of a Alabama or MS landfall is on the table) - Solution 2 does not miss the connection of the first trough, and instead the storm is yanked NE across SE FL. What's more concerning than even that, the trough does not take the storm out to sea and instead leaves it heading due North into a building ridge above. Even if it misses S FL to the east, it just means an East coast strike further up the coast. In short: US is in SERIOUS trouble with this one. Looking at the Euro which in itself is still very much an eastern outlier it would be more of a direct hit to the SW cost of Florida into central Florida . SE FL would still get some hefty TS force winds out of this but not a crippling blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 13 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Which is weird. Still think that trough would shove it OTS. I am not sure there is much of a realistic chance this misses the US without going into the Yucatan or C America...if this manages to avoid those 2 there would need to be some serious changes to get this to totally miss FL or the Gulf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 Looks like this may turn into Ian instead of Hermine at this point with the system set to move off the African coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: I am not sure there is much of a realistic chance this misses the US without going into the Yucatan or C America...if this manages to avoid those 2 there would need to be some serious changes to get this to totally miss FL or the Gulf I think that's the main takeaway at this point. A landfall looks very likely... it's mainly a question of where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I am not sure there is much of a realistic chance this misses the US without going into the Yucatan or C America...if this manages to avoid those 2 there would need to be some serious changes to get this to totally miss FL or the Gulf I meant post FL crossing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 For anyone hoping for east coast impacts you want it to trend further N&E So either a stronger storm or a stronger trough. The 12z Euro sort of splits the difference and the storm ends up trapped & weakening in the SE. Given the low pressures over the east I would actually favor a more NE path. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 Seems like an awful lot of dry stable air if it heads north to the FLA panhandle or even more west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 31 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Would be a fun time on the board if this misses the trough connection and sits in the middle of the gulf for 3 extra days rotting from a 4 to a 1 or 2 before landfall If it parks in that little area of high TCHP S of NOLA.MSY, then gets carried due E towards TPA, well, I'd be full weenie and glad I don't live in Tampa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 36 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Would be a fun time on the board if this misses the trough connection and sits in the middle of the gulf for 3 extra days rotting from a 4 to a 1 or 2 before landfall Someday we will have another Elena 85 and it’s going to be glorious on the internet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 tampa or bust obv 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 u just know it's gonna find a way to shrimp tho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dbullsfan22 Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 Every year there are 1-2 storms that threaten Tampa, every year they go to the panhandle or the LA/MS area. I’ll believe it 2 days after landfall if a storm actually directly hits Tampa or anywhere within 100 miles of Tampa. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JP11283 Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 9 minutes ago, Dbullsfan22 said: Every year there are 1-2 storms that threaten Tampa, every year they go to the panhandle or the LA/MS area. I’ll believe it 2 days after landfall if a storm actually directly hits Tampa or anywhere within 100 miles of Tampa. Agreed, we see this play out every year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 41 minutes ago, Dbullsfan22 said: Every year there are 1-2 storms that threaten Tampa, every year they go to the panhandle or the LA/MS area. I’ll believe it 2 days after landfall if a storm actually directly hits Tampa or anywhere within 100 miles of Tampa. you would need a 2004 Charley like track-a strong trough digging into the east.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 47 minutes ago, Dbullsfan22 said: Every year there are 1-2 storms that threaten Tampa, every year they go to the panhandle or the LA/MS area. I’ll believe it 2 days after landfall if a storm actually directly hits Tampa or anywhere within 100 miles of Tampa. TC development patterns and steering currents are unfavorable for frequent local impacts, this goes back at least 175 years in available records. Eroding TS Eta caused more impact IMBY and for many here than Irma, which set off panic for a week out. We really don’t want anything of significance to landfall near or a bit N of TB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 The convection is incredibly sheared as expected but the spin of the wave is obvious. The strong ones always seem to have the spin even when they are weak, as 98L is. Once shear subsides this should take off 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, TPAwx said: TC development patterns and steering currents are unfavorable for frequent local impacts, this goes back at least 175 years in available records. Eroding TS Eta caused more impact IMBY and for many here than Irma, which set off panic for a week out. We really don’t want anything of significance to landfall near or a bit N of TB. If Cuba didn't exist, I wonder how much that would change things in terms of Tampa area hurricane climo. Would imagine at least a few storms have been weakened substantially by Cuba and then come up the west side of FL as a shell of their former selves. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 59 minutes ago, TPAwx said: Eroding TS Eta caused more impact IMBY and for many here than Irma, which set off panic for a week out. We really don’t want anything of significance to landfall near or a bit N of TB. TS Debbie with 16 inches of rain and winds enough to bring down a few trees was one for us to remember, among many. Irma takes the cake at our home with over two weeks without power and two large oak trees coming down among all the other debris. We did experience the strongest winds we have seen since 2006 or so. A few blocks away, they never lost power. That is Florida, and especially Tampa Bay. After Irma, we do have an all new Duke Energy infrastructure around here. We could even have a blizzard and our power would stay on! LOL Cat 2 or 3? All bets are off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 GFS coming in faster and weakerSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 Yucatan landfall, hr138 at 967mbSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 GFS is insisting the first trough has little effect on our cyclone. Not sure I buy it, buts lets see how it plays out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 Parked on the Yucatan at hr150, ridge built in over the gulf coastSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 Reentered the southern gulf at 162, due south of New OrleansSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 11 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: Reentered the southern gulf at 162, due south of New Orleans 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 7 minutes ago, Prospero said: Dude I was just wondering this morning whether you still exist. I hope this storm gives you another paragraph or two of lore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, Tezeta said: Dude I was just wondering this morning whether you still exist. I hope this storm gives you another paragraph or two of lore. Oh I do drop in every day. If I could change last year's forecast contest numbers to this year: Posted June 4, 2021 OK: 14/11/7 Probably way low on named storms, but seven majors. Teresa might be one to be historic... I think I was the first one eliminated. LOL This year even my very low prediction last year seems high. What are the numbers so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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