GaWx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 0Z ICON landfall about same place as 18Z (maybe slightly north) and a little later 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, GaWx said: 0Z ICON landfall about sane place as 18Z (maybe slightly north) and a little later 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Eye see you. Pretty confident this is stronger than 105mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Them dots sure are close together. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYGiantsFan99 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, jacindc said: 5 minutes ago, yoda said: Them dots sure are close together. something something, significant reduction of average foward motion of landfalling tropical systems due to anthropogenic climate change, something 3 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 minute ago, NYGiantsFan99 said: something something, significant reduction of average foward motion of landfalling tropical systems due to anthropogenic climate change, something Strong blocking high to the north causes slowdown However decades of sea level rises will increase flooding risks 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYGiantsFan99 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, NYGiantsFan99 said: something something, significant reduction of average foward motion of landfalling tropical systems due to anthropogenic climate change, something is this incorrect? i thought this was a major part of the latest IPCC report. confused as to why im getting weenie’d. i do not mean to spread misinformation or start anything so please correct me if im wrong, fairly new at this (just graduated) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 10 minutes ago, GaWx said: 0Z ICON landfall about sane place as 18Z (maybe slightly north) and a little later 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 lol 00z ICON goes for a 2nd landfall at Savannah, GA at 102 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Next pass will be from SW to NE within the hour. Expecting them to find 110-115 MPH storm. IR appearance improving each frame 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Also, yes Cuba may temporarily disrupt intensification. However, HMON, HWRF, HAFS (not sure how good it is but it's a hurricane model) all show a dramatic expansion of the wind field post Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 GFS looks SE with the storm and troff axis through 18hrs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, Amped said: GFS looks SE with the storm and troff axis through 18hrs. Yep and weaker 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just catching up. Still far away, but the center is now on the BYX (Key West) radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 00z GFS battling west coast at 00z Thursday. A little east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoAPPS Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 40 minutes ago, NYGiantsFan99 said: is this incorrect? i thought this was a major part of the latest IPCC report. confused as to why im getting weenie’d. i do not mean to spread misinformation or start anything so please correct me if im wrong, fairly new at this (just graduated) It’s generally seen as a weenie take to attribute the behavior of an individual storm to climate change. The effects of climate change manifest in aggregate trends over years and decades. The connection with individual storms is weak. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Thats a long time Ian is hanging around Tampa with little movement on the 00z GFS... 30 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 GFS keeps Tampa out of the storm surge but dumps 35" of rain. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYGiantsFan99 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 9 minutes ago, GoAPPS said: It’s generally seen as a weenie take to attribute the behavior of an individual storm to climate change. The effects of climate change manifest in aggregate trends over years and decades. The connection with individual storms is weak. understand the confusion now. thank you. i certainly did not mean to 100% attribute it to climate change, merely link the two as we have seen a major uptick in storms, often including the upper end of storms, slowing down prior to landfall in the past 10-15 years. is all of that due to increased global avg temperatures? of course not. it just contributes to it when conditions are ripe for it, like in this case, irma, harvey, michael, etc. thank you for explaining though, always looking for constructive criticism! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, Amped said: GFS keeps Tampa out of the storm surge but dumps 35" of rain. Dang. That’s like how Harvey was in Houston. Yeesh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 GFS landfall Siesta Key. Will be curious to see the ensembles. If they trend east, I would think NHC 5 AM track might be quite different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 hour ago, MattPetrulli said: Curious about the second spike. Anyone wanna chime in? On the graph? It’s showing what the flight level wind and pressure is doing as the recon flight traverses the storm…..those are twenty minute increments….red is pressure and blue is wind….. wind spikes right before you punch through the eyewall then tanks…..pressure continuously tanks until their heading away from the eye….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Pressure falls continuing, down to 959 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 minute ago, ice1972 said: On the graph? It’s showing what the flight level wind and pressure is doing as the recon flight traverses the storm…..those are twenty minute increments….red is pressure and blue is wind….. wind spikes right before you punch through the eyewall then tanks…..pressure continuously tanks until their heading away from the eye….. No meant, the spike before the eyewall which thought represents a potential EWRC but seems not true Also we likely have a major Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 FWIW, 00z CMC slows down, but remains offshore of the west coast of FL as it goes by, makes landfall in the Big Bend of FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 14 minutes ago, Amped said: GFS keeps Tampa out of the storm surge but dumps 35" of rain. Hard pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyEC Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 minute ago, yoda said: FWIW, 00z CMC slows down, but remains offshore of the west coast of FL as it goes by, makes landfall in the Big Bend of FL CMC initialized 20mb higher than currently reported. Take it with a grain of salt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyEC Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 minute ago, TPAwx said: Hard pass. That’s twice as much rain as the May 1979 flood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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