Hurricane Ian

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

It could be dry air, but I might finally be seeing an actual eye on IR satellite.  Looks like the center of cloud motion.

[Weather Mike]

Just now, ice1972 said:

Sister is in Valrico to the east - she’s not in a designated evacuation zone but I’ve warned her that flooding rains will overwhelm the drainage system if the surge won’t let the water out…..they’ll make a decision to head east tomorrow…..

I’m in Tampa 

Zone A riding this out 

tomorrow I am dropping my pool several inches if not a foot and taking furniture inside 

 

then it’s wait and watch. 
 

everyone be safe 

[ice1972]

1 minute ago, Weather Mike said:

I’m in Tampa 

Zone A riding this out 

tomorrow I am dropping my pool several inches if not a foot and taking furniture inside 

 

then it’s wait and watch. 
 

everyone be safe 

What’s the feeling on the ground in A?  I know you’re not but are people actually leaving?  This thing comes onshore south and the heads will want heads…..which is ridiculous obviously 

[CoastalWx]

Yeah starting to get convection wrapping around center on IR. Here he goes. 

[HKY_WX]

4 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

Not really….there’s a reason NHC cone is a cone

150m shift on the euro inside 3 days is dramatic in my book.  It could obviously shift again. 

 

[TPAwx]

[hooralph]

My father in law is right on a canal in Port Charlotte harbor. Has already declared he’s not evacuating based on the fact that Charley’s surge did not flood the area (he wasn’t there at the time).

[Radtechwxman]

Eye definitely starting to pop on last frame of IR satellite 

[Weather Mike]

9 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

What’s the feeling on the ground in A?  I know you’re not but are people actually leaving?  This thing comes onshore south and the heads will want heads…..which is ridiculous obviously 

People in ranch like homes are gone, evacuated 

people like me in newer homes built with hurricane updated codes are staying

most have generators. I don’t and am stupid for not doing so 

built high up so should be ok with high surge but others with older homes are screwed in zone A 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, hooralph said:

My father in law is right on a canal in Port Charlotte harbor. Has already declared he’s not evacuating based on the fact that Charley’s surge did flood the area (he wasn’t there at the time).

Did flood? Or did not flood?  If it flooded the area, what kind of reasoning is that? Lol. 

[GaWx]

 If Ian ends up landfalling south of Tampa and then goes well inland into FL from there, the UKMET will be the big winner as it has had this scenario since the 0Z run of 9/25, eight runs in a row. It had been largely discounted til this last run, but it now has a good shot at a win as the Euro, ICON, and HMON were late to the party. It also was the big winner for Irma in 2017. So, I guess once every five years it gets a big win.

[hawkeye_wx]

Could there be the beginning of an eyewall replacement cycle going on?  Satellite shows what looks like an outer ring popping around the north side of the core.

Edit:  The Cuba radar doesn't really suggest that to me, so maybe not.

[Radtechwxman]

1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Could there be the beginning of an eyewall replacement cycle going on?  Satellite shows what looks like an outer ring popping around the north side of the core.

Microwave data definitely shows that possibility 

[hooralph]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Did flood? Or did not flood?  If it flooded the area, what kind of reasoning is that? Lol. 

Did not… fixed. 
 

reasoning is still awful. But he’s a stubborn redneck. 

[lilj4425]

1 minute ago, Weather Mike said:

Is the NAM the best to count on at this timeframe for a hurricane compared to other models ? 

Definitely not. The NAM isn’t even good in general for hurricanes. Stick to the globals. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, hooralph said:

Did not… fixed. 
 

reasoning is still awful. But he’s a stubborn redneck. 

Lol..ok thanks, now the post makes more sense.  All the best to him. 

[Kevin Reilly]

2 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Definitely not. The NAM isn’t even good in general for hurricanes.

Not only is it not a hurricane model it really should be a model that is retired.  The NAM in some cases is a useless model. Perhaps it is good for showing dynamics within 24 hours of an event but that's about it. 

[Hoosier]

Not blindly following the NAM, but it highlights the water issues that the Tampa area could still have even in a landfall well south scenario.  There is a lot of qpf near and left of track with this.

[rogue]

Moved to Sarasota 5 years ago. Hate the trends today and tonight. Thought we were going to dodge a bullet again but this seems to have its eye on here. 

[Scott747]

Take the NAM disco to banter.

[NYGiantsFan99]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Why ? Its a model and the Euro just shifted to it along with the Icon and eps.

wait till its more near-term for nam… and even then, use it sparingly. nam isnt great for tropical. if i recall correctly, the nam isn’t properly ocean coupled so it struggles (especially in long term) with tropical systems. much better for winter systems/noreasters.

 

edit: recent meteorology graduate so please correct me if im wrong/spark discussion around it

[Weather Mike]

Just now, NYGiantsFan99 said:

wait till its more near-term for nam… and even then, use it sparingly. nam isnt great for tropical. if i recall correctly, the nam isn’t properly ocean coupled so it struggles (especially in long term) with tropical systems. much better for winter systems/noreasters.

Thank you 

i think that’s all we were asking for an intelligent conversation about the NAM which I got deleted and therefore not learning from others on this forum. I don’t agree with some of these moderators deleting post 

[TradeWinds]

https://twitter.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1574583510647586826?t=fDbooImte-kIuTL96oSmYQ&s=19

[Moderately Unstable]

17 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Could there be the beginning of an eyewall replacement cycle going on?  Satellite shows what looks like an outer ring popping around the north side of the core.

Edit:  The Cuba radar doesn't really suggest that to me, so maybe not.

Current take: no. Too early. Eye too big, storm itself still finalizing getting its act together and has improved substantially in presentation in the last hour vis a vis clear enhancement of angular momentum and closure of the eyewall. Sat presentation continues to improve, best to look at medium term trends rather than minute to minute on H's. 

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Recon shows winds are starting to catch up to the pressure falls, Cat 3 winds higher up now 

[yoda]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

...IAN EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE OVERNIGHT OR EARLY 
TUESDAY...
...SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS WILL BEGIN
IN WESTERN CUBA VERY SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 83.4W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ESE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

[MattPetrulli]

Could there be the beginning of an eyewall replacement cycle going on?  Satellite shows what looks like an outer ring popping around the north side of the core.
Edit:  The Cuba radar doesn't really suggest that to me, so maybe not.

Curious about the second spike. Anyone wanna chime in?

[yoda]

Hurricane Ian Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

Ian continues to become better organized on satellite images with 
intense deep convection in its Central Dense Overcast and numerous 
surrounding banding features.  The overall cloud pattern is quite 
symmetric with well-defined upper-level outflow.  Observations from 
both Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the 
central pressure is falling, and the intensity is increased to 90 
kt based on a recently reported 700 mb flight-level wind of 101 kt 
from the Air Force plane.  This is also in agreement with a 
subjective Dvorak satellite estimate from SAB.

Aside from its relatively brief time passing over western Cuba, Ian 
will be moving over waters of very high oceanic heat content during 
the next couple of days.  The various Rapid Intensification (RI) 
indices show a significant probability of RI and this is reflected 
in the short-term official intensity forecast.  However, the SHIPS 
guidance, which is based on global model predictions, indicates that 
a significant increase in southwesterly shear and a substantially 
drying of low- to mid-level air will begin in 24-36 hours.  The NHC 
forecast, like the previous one, shows strengthening to Category 4 
intensity in a day or so, followed by gradual weakening.  However, 
Ian is still expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the 
Florida west coast.  The official intensity forecast is near or 
above the latest simple and corrected multi-model consensus 
predictions.

Ian continues its north-northwestward trek at about 340/11 kt.  The 
hurricane is expected to move north-northwestward to northward 
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so, 
along the western periphery of a subtropical ridge.  After around 
36 hours, the track forecast becomes more uncertain, since there is 
considerable divergence of the track  models in the 2-3 day 
time frame.  The guidance also shows considerable slowing of the 
forward speed, due to a weakening of the steering currents, when 
Ian approaches the west coast of Florida.  This slower forward 
motion is likely to prolong the storm surge, wind, and rainfall 
impacts, especially along the west coast of Florida.  The official 
track forecast is adjusted just slightly east of the previous NHC 
prediction based on the latest multi-model consensus aid, TVCN.


Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds, flash floods 
and possible mudslides are expected in portions of western Cuba 
beginning overnight and continuing into Tuesday. Devastating wind 
damage is possible where the core of Ian moves across western Cuba. 
Efforts to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along much
of the Florida west coast where a storm surge warning has been
issued, with the highest risk from Fort Myers to the Tampa Bay
region.  Residents in these areas should listen to advice given by
local officials.

3. Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning area
in west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning with tropical
storm conditions expected by late Tuesday.

4. Heavy rainfall will spread across western Cuba through Tuesday.  
This will likely produce instances of flash flooding and possible 
mudslides in areas of higher terrain over western Cuba.  

5. Heavy rainfall will increase across the Florida Keys and South 
Florida Tuesday, spreading into central and northern Florida 
Wednesday and Thursday and the Southeast by Friday and Saturday, 
potentially causing flash, urban and small stream flooding. 
Considerable flooding, including significant, prolonged river 
flooding, is likely across Central Florida.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0300Z 21.3N  83.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 22.8N  83.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 24.5N  83.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  28/1200Z 26.1N  83.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  29/0000Z 27.2N  83.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 60H  29/1200Z 27.9N  82.7W   95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND
 72H  30/0000Z 28.6N  82.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 96H  01/0000Z 31.3N  82.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
120H  02/0000Z 35.0N  81.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[GaWx]

0Z ICON 18 is slightly SW of 18Z 24 although it is still a tiny bit east of the 12Z 30

[Radtechwxman]

I was expecting higher winds on 11pm advisory. Not sure it will be a major before hitting Cuba like NHC is forecasting. Cuba will likely halt the intensification and induce some weakening. Curious if we will truly see Ian it hits max potential strength in se Gulf before it encounters more hostile conditions nearing landfall.