Hurricane Ian

[WxSynopsisDavid]

2 minutes ago, Hotair said:

Indeed.  I mean total property damage would probably be much lower if it comes in hot well South of TB and goes inland than if it stays parallel to TB and churns water into the bay for hours.  but my guess is that people South of Ft Meyers have not been too keen on preparations for a Major LF event 

The issue here is that coastline has tripled in population from 2004 and its way more populous now. There's no easy way about it, all these scenarios we are looking at are equally devastating. The original west track taking Ian north into the panhandle being ripped to shreds by shear/dry air before landfall might of been the best case scenario presented to us yet. 

[TradeWinds]

I posted earlier about this. Several models were starting to see an escape. Local met even seemed surprised his model went east this evening. Maybe a useless model but more and more concern several are showing this. Also watching trends on radar. Last update shows storm moved almost due N from 5 to 8 update. If it passes just to the left of the island S of Cuba, then Ian is officially riding the right edge of the cone. 

 

[hawkeye_wx]

Accounting for a 21 kt wind, the latest recon center dropsonde measured 962 mb.

[GaWx]

33 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

18z is notorious for hiccups.  I know most say that doesn’t happen  anymore, but it sure seems to happen quite a bit.  But it could be legit..0z will be telling.  

 Because the 18Z shift suggests landfall at only hour 48 per UKMET, Euro, ICON, and HMON as opposed to it being out at at a much longer timeframe, I think this shift has a high chance to be reflecting the reality to come.

[TradeWinds]

3 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

The issue here is that coastline has tripled in population from 2004 and its way more populous now. There's no easy way about it, all these scenarios we are looking at are equally devastating. The original west track taking Ian north into the panhandle being ripped to shreds by shear/dry air before landfall might of been the best case scenario presented to us yet. 

This is why those in the cone should always prepare. It may still go N to the Big Bend. They should be equally prepared. 

[Eskimo Joe]

9 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

The issue here is that coastline has tripled in population from 2004 and its way more populous now. There's no easy way about it, all these scenarios we are looking at are equally devastating. The original west track taking Ian north into the panhandle being ripped to shreds by shear/dry air before landfall might of been the best case scenario presented to us yet. 

 

[WxSynopsisDavid]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

Thank you for that. Seeing the trends we are seeing with Ian right into that population center is troubling. I have family in Florida that might be impacted by this storm so I hope they sincerely heed the warnings

[ROOSTA]

Eye is present on KBYX radar. Sleeping is over-rated.

[HKY_WX]

25 minutes ago, coastal front said:

18z eps 

Thats a pretty dramatic shift this late in the game. 

[beanskip]

What’s missing about the Charley comparisons is the potential for storm surge in Charlotte Harbor. The main part of the harbor was on the left side of Charley, which passed over Captiva Island. A storm that makes landfall at, say, Englewood or Stump Pass, to the north, would drive water through Boca Grande Pass and right up into the harbor. I would think that narrow pass would be overwhelmed causing big issues on Gasparilla Island as well. 

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

VDM says eye is closed

[TPAwx]

15 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

The issue here is that coastline has tripled in population from 2004 and its way more populous now. There's no easy way about it, all these scenarios we are looking at are equally devastating. The original west track taking Ian north into the panhandle being ripped to shreds by shear/dry air before landfall might of been the best case scenario presented to us yet. 

The scenarios are not equally devastating.  TB/Hillsborough/Pinelllas County have a much higher degree of population/property/economic exposure and risk than Sarasota or Fort Myers. It’s easily accessible data and research.

 

[Floydbuster]

962-964 mb per recon.

[jbenedet]

10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

And Tampa metro has gained ~70,000 people since 2020….

[HKY_WX]

3 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Thats a pretty dramatic shift this late in the game. 

Literally went from the big bend to South of Tampa in 2 runs

[MattPetrulli]

2 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Literally went from the big bend to South of Tampa in 2 runs

The shift from a miss to the west to a Wednesday Night Florida Landfall potentially has been pretty insane the past 24 hours.

[Hotair]

Isla de La Juventud and Pinar del Rio are about to get a whopping when Ian makes landfall with close to Cat 3 strength. Electric utilities in that part of the island are as poor if not worse than what Puerto Rico has.  Last cane in those areas power was not restored for several weeks. 

[mississaugasnow]

4 minutes ago, beanskip said:

What’s missing about the Charley comparisons is the potential for storm surge in Charlotte Harbor. The main part of the harbor was on the left side of Charley, which passed over Captiva Island. A storm that makes landfall at, say, Englewood or Stump Pass, to the north, would drive water through Boca Grande Pass and right up into the harbor. I would think that narrow pass would be overwhelmed causing big issues on Gasparilla Island as well. 

Yep, my in laws have a place right on the water in Port Charlotte. They've been busy the last few days trying to coordinate from Canada. 

[WxSynopsisDavid]

7 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

The scenarios are not equally devastating.  TB/Hillsborough/Pinelllas County have a much higher degree of population/property/economic exposure and risk than Sarasota or Fort Myers. It’s easily accessible data and research.

 

Point is...a major cane rolling into areas south of Tampa is devastating, a major cane stalling and creeping up the coast weakening is devastating, and landfall on Tampa is devastating. Maybe to be "politically correct" they arent equally devastating but none of those scenarios are better than the other...which was my point. Each scenario brings with it its own catastrophic situation. Whether that be prolonged wind, severe storm surge, catastrophic inland freshwater flooding, etc.

[NeffsvilleWx]

23 minutes ago, TradeWinds said:

This is why those in the cone should always prepare. It may still go N to the Big Bend. They should be equally prepared. 

I put closed most of our shutters this evening. Also cleaned up the yard and brought stuff inside -- or in a protected area (house covered area in our lanai has hurricane fabric). Tomorrow I just need to close the shutters on the doors and pull the cars into the garage and we're all set.

 

It never hurts to overprepare.

[Floydbuster]

I wonder if Ian is going to intensify once it moves northeastward with the trough, because right now it looks like it's about to slam into shear.

 

[AChilders]

36 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

That area between Sarasota and Cape Coral is a little more rural compared to the big west coast cities. Charley went that way and as we know damage was a little more limited because of that (still very costly). However, I think the wind field will be a lot bigger than Charley even though this won't come in as a 150 MPH hurricane. The lack of a big wind field led to a minimal surge with Charley (I believe around 6 feet which is crazy low for a category 4).  The size of Charley was about the same as Ian is now,(according to 1 PM advisory August 13, 2004). So assuming the models are correct, the wind field SHOULD grow a lot more. That wind field can lead to really bad storm surge problems in Cape Coral and Ft Myers, which would be a difference vs Charley. So besides the hopeful Tampa miss to the west and the weakening solutions with tropical storm conditions etc, I think a potential best case scenario MAY be a landfall between those 2 cities, but either solution would be really bad. I could be a little ignorant to some aspects, so just from what I have gathered. Of course, others free to chip in.

Charley was a small diameter storm, 5 mile wide eye with a forward speed of 26 MPH, this isn't Charley, 

[Eskimo Joe]

11 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

VDM says eye is closed

 

10 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

962-964 mb per recon.

Here we go

[HKY_WX]

[allgame830]

3 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I wonder if Ian is going to intensify once it moves northeastward with the trough, because right now it looks like it's about to slam into shear.

 

It was said earlier that that shear is moving with Ian.

[TriPol]

Could be a Charlie redux?

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, AChilders said:

Charley was a small diameter storm, 5 mile wide eye with a forward speed of 26 MPH, this isn't Charley, 

Track wise maybe but this will be a bigger storm and a slow mover as you stated. 

Models might have also overcorrected SE

[ice1972]

24 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Thats a pretty dramatic shift this late in the game. 

Not really….there’s a reason NHC cone is a cone

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nam coming in east ?

I posted the NAM last night, but only because it was the only 0Z dynamic model before my bedtime.  I'm at work at 6.  

[ice1972]

Sister is in Valrico to the east of Tampa - she’s not in a designated evacuation zone but I’ve warned her that flooding rains will overwhelm the drainage system if the surge won’t let the water out…..they’ll make a decision to head east tomorrow…..