MattPetrulli Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 6 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 I feel like Cuba may disrupt Ian more than NHC is anticipating esp since it still seems to be trying to get fully organized. It's pretty close but that topography can really disrupt an inner core and Ian's has really been one that took a long time to come together. I could be wrong but just a hunch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 18Z Euro 24 is quite a bit NE of 12Z at 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 Ian feeling Cuba big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Ian feeling Cuba big time Yeah, that’s been apparent for a while. I hope it’s just a temporary pause and we can get a photogenic storm out of it in another 12-18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 I'd rather it become a Cat 4 now and weaken rather than take two days and peak right before landfall. That's what happened with Hurricane Michael. He screwed around so much taking his sweet old time being sheared that by the time he intensified, it was too late to weaken before landfall. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 18z Euro looks to bring it south of Tampa lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 18Z Euro at 48 is a whopping 125 miles east of the 12Z already about to hit the coast south of Tampa!! This is similar to the 18Z UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyEC Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 11 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: I feel like Cuba may disrupt Ian more than NHC is anticipating esp since it still seems to be trying to get fully organized. It's pretty close but that topography can really disrupt an inner core and Ian's has really been one that took a long time to come together. I could be wrong but just a hunch. Wouldn’t this cause the wind field to expand even larger? Loss of a little speed while increasing the eye size? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: 18z Euro looks to bring it south of Tampa lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: I'd rather it become a Cat 4 now and weaken rather than take two days and peak right before landfall. That's what happened with Hurricane Michael. He screwed around so much taking his sweet old time being sheared that by the time he intensified, it was too late to weaken before landfall. And peaking just before landfall seems to be an unfortunate theme the last few years for some odd reason. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 18z Euro may bring it back over the Atlantic lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: 18z Euro may bring it back over the Atlantic lol UKMET is not so weird anymore. The 18Z Euro is only 25 miles north of it at 48! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Here come the east shifts.......Knew it was coming. Its the same thing that happens to storms that are recurving off the east coast....they always trend east. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, Normandy said: Here come the east shifts.......Knew it was coming. Its the same thing that happens to storms that are recurving off the east coast....they always trend east. Except the last one that was supposed to go over Bermuda and missed west 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Have a friend who lives in Fort Myers Beach. Will storm surge be a problem there too? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Euro takes this across Florida and into the Atlantic. Big change from 12z. 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 That’s not in the Atlantic. The high res show it over Orlando. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Fort Myers better wake up now... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said: Have a friend who lives in Fort Myers Beach. Will storm surge be a problem there too? Was already projected 4-7 ft of surge so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Should see 120mph by 12z...probably 945-950mb. 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 For what it's worth... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro takes this across Florida and into the Atlantic. Big change from 12z. Icon may not be so out to lunch after all? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, WinterWolf said: Icon may not be so out to lunch after all? Maybe not We shall see at 0z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Give it another run cycle or two before buying the east shift. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 The track has been shifting more east in recent runs, going from landfall near the Big Bend to just north of Tampa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 10 minutes ago, Amped said: Give it another run cycle or two before buying the east shift. Oh yes, for sure. Was just commenting on how the icon was going up the east coast…and the 18z Euro was heading that way too. But it could just be the 18z nonsense? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, TheGhostOfJohnBolaris said: I don’t know if I buy the landfall south of Tampa. Doesn’t feel like there’s enough to steer it to make that happen. I don't know. This is looking more and more like Charley (2004) as we get closer. 1 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, Brian5671 said: I don't know. This is looking more and more like Charley (2004) as we get closer. It physically cannot just go off to the northeast. Do people understand this? 2 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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