CamSE-Wx Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 Seems like 18z GFS initialized too weak as well from what NHC has and what NOAA just found. Have to think that will effect it some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 latest recon data shows that the pressure of Ian has continued to fall to about 966 mbar supporting the Cat 2 call by NHC NE quadrant is where the action is hottest. DMAX action tonight could goose it further. As is this is about 6 mb stronger than what NHC published at 5 pm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 Looks like it’s getting squished and interacting with Cuban topography a bit. Dry air lurks next to this new exciting eyewall. anyone remember when gustav was going to be the apocalypse? Don’t underestimate Cuban land interaction, albeit brief. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, Tezeta said: Looks like it’s getting squished and interacting with Cuban topography a bit. Dry air lurks next to this new exciting eyewall. anyone remember when gustav was going to be the apocalypse? Don’t underestimate Cuban land interaction, albeit brief. Not supported by recon though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 Concerning the dry air though, topography yes, i agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 20 minutes ago, hlcater said: This is not supported on the NOAA9 flight. Could be the storm shaking off dry air from earlier today. It's having trouble on IR on the nrn side. Clearly still being impeded for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 1 minute ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: Not supported by recon though Just look at IR the last few frames dude. It’s feeling Cuba. For sure. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: It's having trouble on IR on the nrn side. Clearly still being impeded for now. yes its having issues, but i credit this more to the topography and the mountains of Cuba vs dry air 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 Just now, WxSynopsisDavid said: yes its having issues, but i credit this more to the topography and the mountains of Cuba vs dry air Downsloping 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 Sometimes IR doesn't tell the story. Clearly the NHC was right on the Cat 2 upgrade per recon Their forecasts have been top notch this year and I have little reason to believe their forecast will be too far from reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 Just now, WxSynopsisDavid said: yes its having issues, but i credit this more to the topography and the mountains of Cuba vs dry air Center is nowhere near Cuba. It's residual from whatever issues it had earlier. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Tezeta said: Just look at IR the last few frames dude. It’s feeling Cuba. For sure. Again, concerning topography and the mountains i agree and its common sense. That's not what I was disputing with your claim, the dry air is what I dispute. Need to see more conclusive data from the Recon Hunters before going off that assumption 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 5 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: Again, concerning topography and the mountains i agree and its common sense. That's not what I was disputing with your claim, the dry air is what I dispute. Need to see more conclusive data from the Recon Hunters before going off that assumption Usually when you see that IR presentation, shear and/or dry air are the issues. Shear maybe slightly having some say in nrn half...but it has to work out the environment it had earlier that was sort of impeding the deep convection. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Usually when you see that IR presentation, shear and/or dry air are the issues. Shear maybe slightly having some say in nrn half...but it has to work out the environment it had earlier that was sort of impeding the deep convection. Right and I agree, just haven't seen enough conclusive data from recon to say for sure its dry air. Its definitely shear as its moving into 25-30kts of shear 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 Several Thunderstorms moving across the peninsula general motion from the SE moving toward the NW. An Outer-Outer band, great, a nice PRE event. Stakes are extremely high as is my anxiety starting to rise. Many people are going to be shockingly surprised if they don't heed evacuations. A disaster waiting to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 1 hour ago, olafminesaw said: Starting to move into shear, but as other have said, a more easterly movement would mitigate I thought shear wasn't supposed to impact Ian till it another 24-36hrs from now? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastal front Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 Over analyzing IR is not going to give you all the answers. Intensification is not linear She’s already spitting out hot towers getting ready to rotate on the north side. Everything seems on schedule unfortunately. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Usually when you see that IR presentation, shear and/or dry air are the issues. Shear maybe slightly having some say in nrn half...but it has to work out the environment it had earlier that was sort of impeding the deep convection. Thank you for taking the time to "teach" and explain yourself, I wasn't trying to come off aggressive and if I was I apologize. I'm at work tonight pulling a 12hr shift stuck in the office balancing work and occasionally trying to keep up in here following Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 9 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: Right and I agree, just haven't seen enough conclusive data from recon to say for sure its dry air. Its definitely shear as its moving into 25-30kts of shear Well I am talking like an integration of the entire area...one dropsonde may not tell the story. Anyways I think it will strengthen and likely rapidly later tonight or tomorrow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 Just now, WxSynopsisDavid said: Thank you for taking the time to "teach" and explain yourself, I wasn't trying to come off aggressive and if I was I apologize. I'm at work tonight pulling a 12hr shift stuck in the office balancing work and occasionally trying to keep up in here following Ian. No problem! Just giving my thoughts that's all. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 18 UKMET is not at all giving up on the SE outlier scenario as it is 30 miles NE of the 12Z run moving toward Punta Gorda area once again (75 miles s of Tampa). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: No problem! Just giving my thoughts that's all. And I sincerely appreciate it, thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 LOL Icon 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 Fascinating stuff 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 Anyone else seeing due north on sat images? Recon should give us a correct heading but it sure looks north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 1 minute ago, jrips27 said: Fascinating stuff Philippe works for NHC. He's a big brain tropical wx person and a must follow if your have Twitter. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 11 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Weird The 18Z UKMET ends the 60 hour run moving NE ~70 miles S of Orlando, which is near where the 12Z got to but the 18Z gets there 12 hours sooner. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 storm cross-section for tonight (00z) 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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