Hurricane Ian

[GaWx]

At hour 120 of 12Z, Euro (Columbus, GA) is 300 miles west of the UKMET (CHS)!

[SnoSki14]

12z Euro would not be good for Tampa, that would definitely bring the surge in. 

[Calderon]

At this point it's almost safe to say it isn't "if" Tampa Bay gets storm surge but "how much" and for "how long". 

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, TheGhostOfJohnBolaris said:

Pinellas sheriff said earlier that it’s happening for Zones A-C tomorrow

If Manatee goes to Zone C that is probably a jump up from Irma as I am not sure B was ever mandatory there in 2017. 

[eyewall]

I think what is most notable about the GFS/Euro runs is the stall/crawl off Tampa before resuming the trip north.

[Dbullsfan22]

9 minutes ago, TheGhostOfJohnBolaris said:

Pinellas sheriff said earlier that it’s happening for Zones A-C tomorrow

Pinellas just announced Zone A and all trailers tonight at 6 PM. Zones B and C tomorrow morning at 7 AM. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Here is my best guess as of now.....incredibly tough call and low confidence.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/09/hurricane-ian-poised-to-pose-major.html

[Weather Mike]

4 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I think what is most notable about the GFS/Euro runs is the stall/crawl off Tampa before resuming the trip north.

May I ask a question. What is causing Ian to get so close to landfall yet something is causing it to say nope, head north. Now whether or not it makes landfall or not most models show similar presentations of a stall and then almost due north projection. Is it that trough and based on the strength/position is what will determine how close it gets or is able to head east into Florida earlier ? 

[TPAwx]

7 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I think what is most notable about the GFS/Euro runs is the stall/crawl off Tampa before resuming the trip north.

Local surge watch was initialized at 5-8 and then updated to 7-10.  With the GFS and Euro scenarios it would be higher in some locations.

[Superstorm93]

9 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I think what is most notable about the GFS/Euro runs is the stall/crawl off Tampa before resuming the trip north.

I mean, it kind of makes sense. 

Steering breaks down due to the high, but the UL jet wants to keep the system moving to the east. 

[Superstorm93]

The banding structure is incredible with Ian this afternoon. 

While the storm has ingested some dry air, I would guess that the bursts near the core have at least dropped the central pressure a few millibars since the last fix. 

I would expect the storm to resume a rather quick pace of intensification overnight as it nears the Cuban coast. 

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Seems there's almost always some sort of steering breakdown/stall/sharp turn involved right around landfall that complicates the forecast. Harvey, Irma, Florence, Dorian, Sally...now Ian. Storms that just truck right on across the coast like Andrew or Charley seem to be the rare exception (Micheal being the only such case in recent years*, perhaps not coincidentally it's also the only one in their league regarding LF intensity).

*Well, actually Laura and Ida too...A.K.A. the shrimp folk storms.

[olafminesaw]

1 minute ago, Superstorm93 said:

The banding structure is incredible with Ian this afternoon. 

While the storm has ingested some dry air, I would guess that the bursts near the core have at least dropped the central pressure a few millibars since the last fix. 

I would expect the storm to resume a rather quick pace of intensification overnight as it nears the Cuban coast. 

 

And just like that, a couple of hot towers firing near the eye

[Eskimo Joe]

Ian's satellite presentation is looking better over the past couple of hours.

[1234snow]

Stupid question here…. Does the shape of Cuba’s coastline help to tighten up Ian’s core in this situation? The outer bands of convection seems to line up very well with the southern coastline currently as they rotate counter clockwise parallel to the shore.

[wncsnow]

Someone in NC or VA is going to get 8" or more of rain out of this

[Hotair]

9 minutes ago, 1234snow said:

Stupid question here…. Does the shape of Cuba’s coastline help to tighten up Ian’s core in this situation? The outer bands of convection seems to line up very well with the southern coastline currently as they rotate counter clockwise parallel to the shore.

It does but would be best (for the US) if it stayed over the island longer.  In the current trajectory and speed it will be clear of land effects in short order.

[Duncana12]

8 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Someone in NC or VA is going to get 8" or more of rain out of this

Latest outlook from WPC has all the foothills and eastern Mountains in the solid 5 inch contour. With the piedmont areas being in the 3 to 4 inch contours.  Would not be shocked if we are bumped from 5 inch contour to the 7 inch contour for the foothills and eastern mountains. And 4 to 5 for the piedmont. As they have been upping the totals by about a inch each cycle.

[SnowGoose69]

 

Continuing to lose more members showing the Apalachicola landfalls...a couple seem to show the Euro idea of a scare and slide north 

 

 

 

 

[LoboLeader1]

[Floydbuster]

35 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

The banding structure is incredible with Ian this afternoon. 

While the storm has ingested some dry air, I would guess that the bursts near the core have at least dropped the central pressure a few millibars since the last fix. 

I would expect the storm to resume a rather quick pace of intensification overnight as it nears the Cuban coast. 

 

Looks extremely similar to Hurricane Lili in 2002 as she crossed over Cuba. Almost 20 years ago to the day.

[Superstorm93]

18z SHIPS continues to insist that Ian will become a Category 4 hurricane by tomorrow. 

[mempho]

Quick Question- Here's a weather belief that I hold and I want to know if it's true, false, or unresolved.

 

For Gulf storms that landfall on the northern Gulf Coast or potentially traversing along the Florida West Coast...

 

Does the land interaction cause or increase the risk that the storm turns to the right just before landfall (or, in the case of a storm like this, can it potentially cause it to "turn right" into a landfall)?   

I recall several strong hurricanes appearing to turn or jog to the right along the northern Gulf coast. 

Also, I'm talking generally...which may or may not be specific to this storm.  

Lastly, if this were the case, would this or would this not be factored in to the track forecast?  

[Superstorm93]

 

 

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

At hour 120 of 12Z, Euro (Columbus, GA) is 300 miles west of the UKMET (CHS)!

Models don’t limit covering each and every base to winter storms only 

[GaWx]

12Z EPS mean not surprisingly east of 6Z and similar to 0Z with a mean track near Tampa.

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, Weather Mike said:

May I ask a question. What is causing Ian to get so close to landfall yet something is causing it to say nope, head north. Now whether or not it makes landfall or not most models show similar presentations of a stall and then almost due north projection. Is it that trough and based on the strength/position is what will determine how close it gets or is able to head east into Florida earlier ? 

Hurricanes “sense” land interaction and unless solid steering winds compel them inland they will often skirt the coastline 

[WxSynopsisDavid]

1 hour ago, beanskip said:

Yeah but weren't they ahead of the pack on Michael's rapid intensification?

Yes they were, NAM pack were among the first models outside of the NOAA NHC in-house models to accurately predict Michaels rapid intensification

[TradeWinds]

18z guidance has more members leaning towards an escape to the Atlantic or at least a path inland. It's all gonna come down to the timing of the trough vs High pressure building in. 

[Hotair]

Satellite has Ian as a 90 MPH hurricane now with a pressure of 976 mb almost Cat 2 .   We should have two additional Hunter planes in the storm soon