Hurricane Ian

[Superstorm93]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

Hearing unconfirmed rumors that they have started issuing evacuation orders for portions of Tampa area.

 

 

 

[MattPetrulli]

Could distance away from radar and/or radar quality, but the inner core looks quite ragged currently.

[olafminesaw]

13 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Could distance away from radar and/or radar quality, but the inner core looks quite ragged currently.

Seems to be merging/consolidating eyewalls, but as you said, it's hard to tell based on radar quality 

[Eskimo Joe]

Friendly reminder as we slowly draw closer to the shorter/mid range models:

 

[WxWatcher007]

 

[beanskip]

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Friendly reminder as we slowly draw closer to the shorter/mid range models:

 

Yeah but weren't they ahead of the pack on Michael's rapid intensification?

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, beanskip said:

Yeah but weren't they ahead of the pack on Michael's rapid intensification?

Not to my knowledge. You are better off ignoring the NAM3k for tropical.

[beanskip]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Not to my knowledge. You are better off ignoring the NAM3k for tropical.

Oh I know on NAM -- was talking about HMON/HWRF

[WeatherDA]

17 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Historically hasn’t there never been a big storm to go into the big bend area?  That would tell me it’s still likely this goes closer to Tampa, albeit probably north, maybe approximately crystal river or so 

 

Hurricane Hermine hit the Big Bend area back in 2016.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, beanskip said:

Oh I know on NAM -- was talking about HMON/HWRF

From what I've been told, HMON/HWRF is not the best to use for intensity until the center of circulation has been established.

[BuffaloWeather]

[CamSE-Wx]

Euro a decent bit west from the morning's run

[beanskip]

12z Euro playing its usual "you say tomato" game with the GFS.

At 48 hours, it will have to cut pretty hard to the right to make it to landfall. 

Amazing that when the GFS finally caves, the Euro swings back to the west a bit. 

If accurate, would be a big break for Tampa -- not so much for Panhandle. 

[GaWx]

Just now, CamSE-Wx said:

Euro a decent bit west from the morning's run

Actually, the 12Z Euro 48 is 50 miles NE of 6Z Euro run and has a slightly stronger H5 NE US trough than 6Z

[wncsnow]

Euro is a little west and substantially stronger than 00z

[GaWx]

Just now, wncsnow said:

Euro is a little west and substantially stronger than 00z

West of 0Z but NE of 6Z

[Superstorm93]

So far, not good. 

 

 

[CoastalWx]

A jump east from 6z. 

[olafminesaw]

2 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

So far, not good. 

 

 

The takeaway here is the turn towards the coast that the GFS has as well. Not good indeed

[beanskip]

At 72 hours -- not going to make it to the coast, it doesn't appear. 

West of 0z. 

[GaWx]

12Z Euro 72 is between the 0Z and 6Z runs for same timeframe

[wncsnow]

It's a good 20 mb stronger than 00Z

[beanskip]

Looks like Euro is in between 12z GFS (which is now to the east) and CMC (to the west) at 72 hours. 

Really got stronger, too. 

 

[GaWx]

12Z Euro 72 has a slightly stronger NE US H5 trough than 6Z and 00Z runs. Its Ian location is between those 2 runs at 72.

[beanskip]

Euro 96 hours -- never got to shore -- headed north. 

[Tatamy]

Euro 06z at 84 hours

Euro 12z at 78 hours

[Superstorm93]

[Calderon]

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

Hearing unconfirmed rumors that they have started issuing evacuation orders for portions of Tampa area.

No rumor, it's for Hillsborough County Zone A. 

[Tatamy]

Cuban Weather Radar

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/02IJuventud/pdeMAXw01a.gif

[StantonParkHoya]

Goes west of Atlanta, Alabama line