Hurricane Ian

[Sn0waddict]

[Windspeed]

If you want a strong landfall you want this to get pulled up ahead of the trough and moving briskly in a NE direction into landfall so it’s going with the shear vector. You also don’t want a system going into the big bend area of Florida where there is extensive shelf water. A Charley like track would yield your strongest LF, in the situation as modeled. If this gets left behind the trough, it will be encircled in dry stable air, moving slower over shelf waters, and subject to NW shear. That’s why the GFS is showing rapid weakening.
 It is FAR too early to discuss these specifics. The storm isn’t even formed yet and the trough interaction is long range. My gut says whatever forms will end up further east, maybe Euro type track, as that has been the trend this year for models to go too far west then correct east, especially with unusually low heights on the east coast. Let’s monitor cyclone formation before nitpicking intensity at long range. Happy tracking. 

Forward motion matters with respect to the Pandhandle and shelf waters as well. Sure, if the potential TC is intense but gets left behind prior to landfall, it would stall, upwell itself plus entrain continental airmass. However, if it remains at a decent northerly forward motion into the panhandle, shelf waters are still currently running hot. There has yet to be a significant cold front pass through or at least one to bring down SSTs. So the shallow shelf would be more than sufficient to fuel a Cat 5 just like Michael or Camille. Of course, a hook to the right, 300mb flow, trough ventilation, structure, trough bypass, all speculation for a week or more and we don't even have a TC yet.

[jrips27]

 

[Cyg]

Not too surprised. Damn near anything that meanders into the Caribbean Sea turns into a monster. 

[csnavywx]

3 hours ago, Superstorm93 said:

That's honestly what I'm betting on at this point. I think continued development over the next 72 hours remains slow.

Yep, max layer shear stays 25-30kt for a good 48-72 hr before relaxing. Development will be slow and convection likely to be mostly relegated to the southwestern part of the circulation. Could easily see a south-of-forecast-track bias due to that shear.

[Modfan2]

7 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Yep, max layer shear stays 25-30kt for a good 48-72 hr before relaxing. Development will be slow and convection likely to be mostly relegated to the southwestern part of the circulation. Could easily see a south-of-forecast-track bias due to that shear.

There were quite a few members taking this into the Yucatán 

[cptcatz]

2 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

That really is the norm for landfalling gulf storms. Particularly in October 

2020 would like a word with you

[NavarreDon]

Forward motion matters with respect to the Pandhandle and shelf waters as well. Sure, if the potential TC is intense but gets left behind prior to landfall, it would stall, upwell itself plus entrain continental airmass. However, if it remains at a decent northerly forward motion into the panhandle, shelf waters are still currently running hot. There has yet to be a significant cold front pass through or at least one to bring down SSTs. So the shallow shelf would be more than sufficient to fuel a Cat 5 just like Michael or Camille. Of course, a hook to the right, 300mb flow, trough ventilation, structure, trough bypass, all speculation for a week or more and we don't even have a TC yet.

Close to or record high temps forecast along the northern gulf coast over the next few days. Low 90’s along the coast & mid to upper 90’s inland. Here is my NWS pinpoint:

Today
Sunny, with a high near 91. East wind around 5 mph becoming south in the afternoon.

Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low around 74. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming north after midnight.

Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 92. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon.

Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 73. West wind around 10 mph becoming north after midnight.

Friday
Sunny, with a high near 90. North wind 5 to 10 mph.


.

[Superstorm93]

GFS still correcting weaker on the 12z so far. We're a few ticks away from burying this in Central America 

[StantonParkHoya]

GFS noticeably southwest of 6z

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

If you want a strong landfall you want this to get pulled up ahead of the trough and moving briskly in a NE direction into landfall so it’s going with the shear vector. You also don’t want a system going into the big bend area of Florida where there is extensive shelf water. A Charley like track would yield your strongest LF, in the situation as modeled. If this gets left behind the trough, it will be encircled in dry stable air, moving slower over shelf waters, and subject to NW shear. That’s why the GFS is showing rapid weakening.

 It is FAR too early to discuss these specifics. The storm isn’t even formed yet and the trough interaction is long range. My gut says whatever forms will end up further east, maybe Euro type track, as that has been the trend this year for models to go too far west then correct east, especially with unusually low heights on the east coast. Let’s monitor cyclone formation before nitpicking intensity at long range. Happy tracking. 

I don't think the GFS changes SST/OHC based on winds as longer range climate models do.  But I could be wrong.

[Brian5671]

ends up near Cancun-much further SW

[StantonParkHoya]

Might get a Cancun landfall

edit: it does, totally new solution here

[bigtenfan]

I wonder how the 12Z Euro will look as they were by far the NE outlier at 00Z

[hawkeye_wx]

The latest Canadian still turns it up into the gulf, but the eastern US trough lifts out and the storm stalls.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

The closest thing to an LLC I see will hit Trinidad, if not Venezuela, and there are dry air arc clouds.  It may be a monster in a week, but it doesn't look like 70% 2 day odds to me.

[wawayanda]

8 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The latest Canadian still turns it up into the gulf, but the eastern US trough lifts out and the storm stalls.

And then a crawling landfall near New Orleans with slight intensification in the last few hours

[Superstorm93]

7 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

The closest thing to an LLC I see will hit Trinidad, if not Venezuela, and there are dry air arc clouds.  It may be a monster in a week, but it doesn't look like 70% 2 day odds to me.

Too late for them to lower odd, but I absolutely agree. Best shot for significant development will be if/when this gets past Jamaica. 

Everything else is basically conjecture at this point. 

[Superstorm93]

 

 

[MANDA]

58 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Too late for them to lower odd, but I absolutely agree. Best shot for significant development will be if/when this gets past Jamaica. 

Everything else is basically conjecture at this point. 

Agreed.  Best chances not until approaching western third of Caribbean.  System will have lots of latitude to gain to make it cleanly through the Yucatan Channel.  Honestly the only sure thing is it likely doing little next 2 - 3 days.  Everything past that is conjecture to say the least.  Interesting to track and follow but any model solution past 3 days at this point should be taken as "hmmmm, interesting".  Personally I'd favor the more southern model tracks through the Caribbean as of now due mainly to low latitude starting point and northerly shear being produced by Fiona.  Upper ridge building in wake of Fiona should prevent this from gaining latitude in the near term and also aid in keeping it on a more westward track.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

11 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Agreed.  Best chances not until approaching western third of Caribbean.  System will have lots of latitude to gain to make it cleanly through the Yucatan Channel.  Honestly the only sure thing is it likely doing little next 2 - 3 days.  Everything past that is conjecture to say the least.  Interesting to track and follow but any model solution past 3 days at this point should be taken as "hmmmm, interesting".  Personally I'd favor the more southern model tracks through the Caribbean as of now due mainly to low latitude starting point and northerly shear being produced by Fiona.  Ridge building in wake of Fiona should prevent this from gaining latitude in the near term.

Imagine the potential if this does come further W towards NOLA

[StantonParkHoya]

GFS ensemble further SW as well. Looks like a cluster into New Orleans.

[hawkeye_wx]

The Euro still wants to dig a deeper eastern US trough than the GFS/GDPS and turn the hurricane north earlier, resulting in a Charlie-esque track.

[bdgwx]

12Z UKMET crosses Cuba and puts AL98 into the eastern GOM and off the coast of FL at hour 168. It's kinda "meh" in terms of intensity though.

[cptcatz]

Euro sticking to landfall around Ft. Meyers. This storm looks far bigger than Charley and impacts look to be throughout South Florida including Miami metro, similar to Irma.

[SnowenOutThere]

CMC with a New Orleans impact 

 

[bigtenfan]

3 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Euro sticking to landfall around Ft. Meyers. This storm looks far bigger than Charley and impacts look to be throughout South Florida including Miami metro, similar to Irma.

That is still a fairly large westward move from 00Z which had it going right over both of our houses here in Boca.

[hawkeye_wx]

There is a big timing difference between the models.  The Euro's deep eastern trough means landfall is only one week away.  The GFS and GDPS are ten days away because they have it missing the trough and slowing in the gulf.

[Weather Mike]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

CMC with a New Orleans impact 

 

So far looking like New Orleans far west to as far east and south as Port Charlotte area.  Still long way away. Will it miss that trough or not ?  

[Normandy]

As we move closer, there are two potential solutions developing:

- Solution 1 misses the connection on the first trough, causing the storm to instead slowly move NNW until eventual landfall on the N GOM cost (still likely Florida Panhandle, but some potential of a Alabama or MS landfall is on the table)

- Solution 2 does not miss the connection of the first trough, and instead the storm is yanked NE across SE FL.  What's more concerning than even that, the trough does not take the storm out to sea and instead leaves it heading due North into a building ridge above.  Even if it misses S FL to the east, it just means an East coast strike further up the coast.

 

In short:  US is in SERIOUS trouble with this one.