Hurricane Ian

[dan11295]

One thing you notice from the 12Z GFS is how the eastern half of the storm is moisture starved, indicating the dry air getting into the circulation (and causing it to weaken) That would mitigate some freshwater issues. Obviously biggest worry is surge into Tampa Bay. 

Current radar does show dry air trying to work its way out of the core.

This is still a very tricky forecast with minor changes having a major impact on resulting effects.

[olafminesaw]

Hard to tell, but seems like it's trying to form an eyewall inside the larger original eyewall, kind of like what would occur during an EWRC. I'll be curious if this dissipates as the outer eyewall contracts, or if it becomes the dominant eyewall and they meld together 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

Hard to tell, but seems like it's trying to form an eyewall inside the larger original eyewall, kind of like what would occur during an EWRC. I'll be curious if this dissipates as the outer eyewall contracts, or if it becomes the dominant eyewall and they meld together 

An early ERC could help explain some of the structural issues....

[MattPetrulli]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

An early ERC could help explain some of the structural issues....

Recon making a center pass so about to find out

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET pretty close to 0Z track and continues to have a clearcut SE outlier track coming ashore well south of Tampa. Also, note that this is actually about the strongest it has had Ian (984 mb) even though it still is relatively weak vs other models. This track is also SE of the 0Z track late:

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 26.09.2022

             HURRICANE IAN        ANALYSED POSITION : 18.6N  82.4W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 26.09.2022    0  18.6N  82.4W      990            45
    0000UTC 27.09.2022   12  20.8N  83.5W      986            48
    1200UTC 27.09.2022   24  22.5N  84.0W      989            44
    0000UTC 28.09.2022   36  24.0N  83.9W      986            47
    1200UTC 28.09.2022   48  25.6N  83.3W      984            57
    0000UTC 29.09.2022   60  26.6N  82.4W      986            52
    1200UTC 29.09.2022   72  27.3N  81.7W      991            46
    0000UTC 30.09.2022   84  28.3N  80.8W      992            47
    1200UTC 30.09.2022   96  29.2N  80.6W      992            45
    0000UTC 01.10.2022  108  30.6N  80.0W      988            50
    1200UTC 01.10.2022  120  33.1N  79.9W      988            41
    0000UTC 02.10.2022  132  34.9N  79.9W      997            28
    1200UTC 02.10.2022  144  36.4N  78.9W     1002            29
 

[Tatamy]

2 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

This would be 4th system in 8 years that goes up the Florida coast and threatens some of the core coming ashore, (Dorian, Matthew, Isaias). Just funny because I don't recall that in 2000s/90s, could be wrong though

Andrew hit south Florida in August 1992.  I took a vacation down there in April 1993.  I drove around the Homestead area and the area where the Turkey Pt. Nuclear plant is situated.  Every tree along SW 344th street was ripped out of the ground and pointed east.  Every home in the area was either leveled or badly damaged.  The east coast of Florida dodged a serious bullet when that well timed trough approached and steered Dorian to the north.  I would not wish a Cat 5 landfall on anyone.  

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[Tatamy]

CMC is west with an Apalachicola landfall at 102 hours.

[mappy]

Can you all dial back the OMG This is so bad posts and try to talk logically. The storm is still days away from landfall, let it play out. Heed your local evac orders, follow NHC. 

We on staff will be hiding posts that don't add to the topic. 

Thanks,

Management

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET landfall into Port Charlotte area, 75 miles south of Tampa. I think this is barely south of the 0Z run and is a major south outlier.

[beanskip]

So forecasting every hurricane is unique, but it's hard to remember one with this many complicating factors and this much uncertainty.

Part of it is a combination of angle of approach and the possibility of  stall.

But there is also this unusual dry air/weakening depiction, PRECEDED by the expected RI of the storm.

Even an old codger like me has trouble remember one that's this difficult to forecast.

We've certainly seen worse storms in the past few years, but not ones this ornery, imo. 

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

I'm not sure anybody in this thread cares much about what the remnants will do in the northeast.  The storm will be a shell well before then.

Maybe not New York but if this storm stalls in the southern Appalachians, it could mean serious flooding, mudslides, etc. Pretty much all of the models have over 4 inches of rain up to 8 inches of rain for the eastern escarpment of the Blue Ridge in Western NC/SC into NE GA.  Luckily it has been dry lately but with the SE flow leading to orographical uplift, it could get ugly fast, 

[dan11295]

Right now we have more or less two camps, more of less due north in the panhandle with a likely rapidly weakening storm, or the harder right turn into the Florida west coast. Will see if 12Z euro caves more one way or the other. 6z tried to start going NE then stopped soon and went north.

[Superstorm93]

Looks like it took a shot of dry air before. 

Latest burst should take care of that 

 

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET has a later landfall near Charleston, SC as per the dark blue line in this:

[jbenedet]

The tracks into western Florida are of very significant impact while the tracks into the panhandle look like weak TS impacts (at least by Fla standards). Quite the dichotomy. 

[MANDA]

19 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Andrew hit south Florida in August 1992.  I took a vacation down there in April 1993.  I drove around the Homestead area and the area where the Turkey Pt. Nuclear plant is situated.  Every tree along SW 344th street was ripped out of the ground and pointed east.  Every home in the area was either leveled or badly damaged.  The east coast of Florida dodged a serious bullet when that well timed trough approached and steered Dorian to the north.  I would not wish a Cat 5 landfall on anyone.  

So agreed.  That is about as close as you could have come to a disaster and have avoided it.  Someday it will happen but was not to be with Dorian.  As storm like Dorian moving east to west toward a south Florida major metro would be epic disaster.

[kvegas-wx]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z UKMET has a later landfall near Charleston, SC as per the dark blue line in this:

Anything left of Ian that transverses FL will get obliterated in the Atlantic with all this dry/cool air continuing to push thru the southeast.  Not much worry about a second landfall IMO.

Note, please find a blue shed near TPA on google maps.  That is our LF.  We all need another legacy moment with JP's narraration.  

[Hoosier]

7 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Maybe not New York but if this storm stalls in the southern Appalachians, it could mean serious flooding, mudslides, etc. Pretty much all of the models have over 4 inches of rain up to 8 inches of rain for the eastern escarpment of the Blue Ridge in Western NC/SC into NE GA.  Luckily it has been dry lately but with the SE flow leading to orographical uplift, it could get ugly fast, 

That's why I said the northeast.  The northeast is not the southeast.  The southeast could be a different ballgame with this setup.

[StantonParkHoya]

3 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Anything left of Ian that transverses FL will get obliterated in the Atlantic with all this dry/cool air continuing to push thru the southeast.  Not much worry about a second landfall IMO.

Note, please find a blue shed near TPA on google maps.  That is our LF.  We all need another legacy moment with JP's narraration.  

It’s also literally the only model with such an absurd track

[GaWx]

11 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Anything left of Ian that transverses FL will get obliterated in the Atlantic with all this dry/cool air continuing to push thru the southeast.  Not much worry about a second landfall IMO.

Agreed regarding winds though the potential for heavy rainfall would be there. Also, the most significant thing about this track imho is how it has maintained its strong SE outlier position and is actually a hair SE of the 0Z into FL. It is way SE of the 6Z Euro. What's interesting is that the UKMET is often on the left side of guidance, the opposite of this. For example, it did about the best with Irma because it was to the left of most, if not all, others.

[TradeWinds]

5 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

It’s also literally the only model with such an absurd track

HMON is similar. It caved today after showing panhandle hit after hit.  I'm not saying it's correct either but just because they feel the effects of the trough and touch the Atlantic don't make them absurd.

[Hotair]

New recon data for Ian shows flight level winds have increased to 79kt while ex. pressure has dropped to 977.0mb which os consistent with a deepening storm.  Window for preparations in Havana and western Cuba is coming to a close soon.  
 

im in Lakeland now where I expect to ride out whatever comes. 

[NJwx85]

12Z GFS has a lot of dry air to the East and South of the center from Wednesday afternoon on. As others have said, it looks like convection will have trouble building on the Eastern side of the storm once near Florida.

I wonder how much of the wind will actually mix down to the surface if the Eastern side is mostly void of deep convection.

[weatherwiz]

12z GFS bufkit has ~48-hours of tropical storm force winds at TPA and a good 24-30 hours of hurricane force gusts. That's pretty impressive

[GaWx]

12Z JMA landfalls at Sarasota, barely south of Tampa.

[beanskip]

HMON and HWRIF both go east -- especially the HMON which now has a 951 mb Ian at the mouth of Tampa Bay at 57 hours.

[EdutateGA]

Zone A mandatory evacuations just went out for Manatee County

[NJwx85]

Hearing unconfirmed rumors that they have started issuing evacuation orders for portions of Tampa area.

[Superstorm93]

For the maximum doom crowd