Hurricane Ian

[olafminesaw]

The GFS is a hair east through 57. 

[TPAwx]

12z is coming in east of 6z

edit - material shift thru 63

[MattPetrulli]

2 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

12z GFS maybe a tad east, but stronger and bigger

Also gives tropical storm conditions to most of the Florida West Coast which I was skeptical of, even though there's warnings and watches out.

[beanskip]

66 hours -- GFS ALMOST making landfall near mouth of Tampa Bay.

[TPAwx]

GFS as depicted is really bad for TB

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I’m sure there is…he’s been struggling from the start.  

I would still strongly hedge that it will. its being delayed....maybe it means a cat 3 peak, as opposed to 4....

[TradeWinds]

Looking back on the last 3 NHC wind and position estimate forecasts, track looks decent. A hair to the right of track. But noticeably weaker. 11 PM had the slower development. 5 AM was aggressive with winds ramping up all day and now they scaled back some at 11 AM (but a sharp spike up to 140 briefly). Perhaps the early AM models were a tad too strong with this system early causing the west track. We'll see.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, TradeWinds said:

Looking back on the last 3 NHC wind and position estimate forecasts, track looks decent. A hair to the right of track. But noticeably weaker. 11 PM had the slower development. 5 AM was aggressive with winds ramping up all day and now they scaled back some at 11 AM (but a sharp spike up to 140 briefly). Perhals the early AM models were a tad too strong with this system early causing the west track. We'll see.

Isn't it ironic that a weaker initial system and longer term track to the east is "bad" for once....

[SnowenOutThere]

That may be a near worst case scenario run for Tampa Bay, has both surge and winds into the city. 

 

[beanskip]

GFS very "pre Oz Euro"-looking.

Pretty much a nightmare run for Tampa Bay area.

[Floydbuster]

New Video Update on Ian

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s21N7LmYW6s

 

[MattPetrulli]

Just parks over Tampa through 00z Friday lmao

[StantonParkHoya]

Damn thing is just gonna wash out over Tampa

[A-L-E-K]

hot run

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would still strongly hedge that it will. its being delayed....maybe it means a cat 3 peak, as opposed to 4....

This thing hasn’t been,  nor is it currently impressive.  It’s been forecast to do a lot of things…but for various reasons it can’t seem to put it all together.  
 

“Off to the races” has been expressed at least a few dozen times lol…and then he goes in reverse lmao.  I guess we’ll see? But it would not surprise me in the least if he does not attain major Hurricane status. 

[TPAwx]

1 minute ago, beanskip said:

GFS very "pre Oz Euro"-looking.

Pretty much a nightmare run for Tampa Bay area.

It’s a crusher.  Watching the loop, it literally crawls up to the bay and sits over us.  Getting ready to eat a wrap and some onion rings from my freezer (use it or lose it), just lost my appetite.

[dan11295]

At least we get this run out of the way now.....

[jbenedet]

26 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

From what I can gather, the main sources of track error are:

Stronger hurricane likely gets a bit further south and west. 

The northeast trough. Does it dig far enough southwest to drag Ian northward or does Ian miss and meander in the GOM for a few days and weaken under shear?

Yea. Along these lines, you can clearly see based on steering flow that there is a few scenarios where this could really stall near TB, but that isn't being well advertised by the guidance. The right hook into TB would lead to a faster rate of weakening due to landfall, and being less vertically stacked while the low to mid level flow becomes increasingly ambiguous. This could allow Ian to meander near the west coast of Fla as a TS, which would result in a severe rainfall threat. 

[LeesburgWx]

GFS is  worthy for Tampa

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

This thing hasn’t been,  nor is it currently impressive.  It’s been forecast to do a lot of things…but for various reasons it can’t seem to put it all together.  
 

“Off to the races” has been expressed at least a few dozen times lol…and then he goes in reverse lmao.  I guess we’ll see? But it would not surprise me in the least if he does not attain major Hurricane status. 

Well too be fair Ian was never really expected to take off until today anyways. Yes it did take a big longer than anticipated to get to hurricane status but it terms of potential and likelihood for RI that is on track.

[TPAwx]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

GFS is  worthy for Tampa

Reminds me of the NAM runs when I lived in NOVA that would spit out 50 inches of snow.

Thankfully this one won’t verify either 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Well too be fair Ian was never really expected to take off until today anyways. Yes it did take a big longer than anticipated to get to hurricane status but it terms of potential and likelihood for RI that is on track.

Once these things undergo RI, its often even under modeled, so it can easily catch up. I wouldn't get too wrapped up in short term trends yet....but the dry air entrainment this far south maybe something to keep in mind for once it gets further north.

[MattPetrulli]

This would be 4th system in 8 years that goes up the Florida coast and threatens some of the core coming ashore, (Dorian, Matthew, Isaias). Just funny because I don't recall that in 2000s/90s, could be wrong though

[Floydbuster]

 

[olafminesaw]

One thing to note is that winds aren't actually pushing into the bay from the south until Thursday afternoon, due to approach angle. This may mitigate a GFS solution somewhat as the storm is starting to weaken. Probably too little too late, but still

[MattPetrulli]

GEFS east some too

[beanskip]

Wow -- LOL -- CMC goes a good bit back to the west. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Once these things undergo RI, its often even under modeled, so it can easily catch up. I wouldn't get to wrapped up in short term trends yet....but this dry air entrainment this far south  maybe something to keep in mind for once it gets further north.

Agreed...once RI happens with these systems models can have a difficult time playing catchup. There are certainly some flags to really consider here. Regardless of what seems to happen in terms of intensity (as we discussed in SNE thread) rainfall/flooding (storm surge and freshwater) could be rather devastating. Now...if a scenario like GFS is right a concentrated area of significant wind damage/power outages would be probable. Looks like eastern eyewall on GFS gets close to Tampa?

[WxWatcher007]

9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

This thing hasn’t been,  nor is it currently impressive.  It’s been forecast to do a lot of things…but for various reasons it can’t seem to put it all together.  
 

“Off to the races” has been expressed at least a few dozen times lol…and then he goes in reverse lmao.  I guess we’ll see? But it would not surprise me in the least if he does not attain major Hurricane status. 

 

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Well too be fair Ian was never really expected to take off until today anyways. Yes it did take a big longer than anticipated to get to hurricane status but it terms of potential and likelihood for RI that is on track.

I mean, it intensified 30kts in 18 hours. That's RI. It's all about the structure and environment. Yesterday morning it built the structure to intensify at a rapid pace, and late yesterday/early this morning it capitalized on the environment. Now it needs to close the eye and keep it closed consistently to have the next level of rapid intensification.

I don't really see any major red flags that this will underperform in reaching major status. If 12 hours from now it still can't close off an eyewall, then there's an issue IMO. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Once these things undergo RI, its often even under modeled, so it can easily catch up. I wouldn't get too wrapped up in short term trends yet....but the dry air entrainment this far south maybe something to keep in mind for once it gets further north.

Good points Ray.  
 

But I’m thinking the same thing…dry air this far south????  Nobody saw that coming.  I’m wondering if he’s gonna be one of those systems where he just can’t ever really take off? Has that feel to me currently.   Which would be good news for the folks down in Fla.