Hurricane Ian

[WxSynopsisDavid]

1 minute ago, Hotair said:

Unflagged 988.5 found.  So we more than likely wake up to a CAT 1 in the morning 

If this rate of intensification continues that we have seen this evening, and it solely depends on Ian getting a CDO and an eye soon, you could be waking up to find Ian stronger than a Cat 1.

[The Iceman]

Pretty awesome loop of tonight's intensification(time sensitive):

 

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-13-200-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[Rockem_sockem_connection]

10 minutes ago, Normandy said:

Going to be a hectic day in Tampa tomorrow.  HOT HOT towers rotating around the center now.

What's a hot tower mean 

[AnthonyEC]

3 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said:

What's a hot tower mean 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hot_tower

[DJnVa]

4 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said:

What's a hot tower mean 

 

Quote

Vortical hot towers aid in the formation of tropical cyclones by producing many small-scale positive anomalies of potential vorticity, which eventually coalesce to strengthen the broader storm.^[17] The high vorticity present in the hot towers traps the latent heat released by those clouds, while the merger of the hot towers aggregates this enhanced warmth.^[18] These processes are the major part of the initial formation of a tropical cyclone's warm core—the anomalous warmth at the center of such a system—and the increased angular momentum of the winds encircling the developing cyclone.^[17]

 

 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hot_tower#Effect_on_tropical_cyclones

[hawkeye_wx]

8 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Pretty awesome loop of tonight's intensification(time sensitive):

 

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-13-200-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

I've been watching the COD meso loops all day.  It's a nice site.

[Radtechwxman]

As soon as I saw that big convective burst go by the center and persist I knew it was finally game on. Now with quickly dropping pressures and satellite presentation improving each frame, RI is for sure imminent if not already occurring. 

[Normandy]

Oh yeah i'm firing up the IPAs and getting ready for a show tonight.  Ian going nuts

[WxSynopsisDavid]

3 minutes ago, Normandy said:

Oh yeah i'm firing up the IPAs and getting ready for a show tonight.  Ian going nuts

If we are talking about Indian Pale Ale's....I'm game for that lol.

[bdgwx]

The 18Z cycle of the big 3 ensembles is in. The intersection of the uncertainty rings still suggests the big bend area of Florida is the best estimate of landfall. It is very difficult to make out due to the large nature of the uncertainty rings but the intersection point for HR96 while close to the coast is further away than what the 18Z operational ECMWF or EPS mean are suggesting due to the influence of the GFS and UKMET suites pulling it further west. However, the uncertainty rings are fairly wide at HR96 and even the combined uncertainty of the 3 at the intersection point is still going to be fairly large as well and likely inclusive of a landfall near Tampa. The point...areas from Fort Meyers and especially Tampa on northward should still keep a close eye on possible south and east adjustments to the track resulting in larger impacts for those areas.

 

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

 Bedtime.  The best dynamic model available to me, 12 km NAM, 979 hPa at landfall a smidge S of TPA

[Rockem_sockem_connection]

5 minutes ago, Normandy said:

Oh yeah i'm firing up the IPAs and getting ready for a show tonight.  Ian going nuts

I'm always fascinated to watch TWC during hurricanes but I moved to the front lines of them two months ago and now it's just stressful. I might drink a couple beers in another day or two when I feel for sure like I'm out of the woods.

Being from the north east, tracking snow was fun and mostly harmless. It's cool to see a city come to a hault due to a blizzard but they are mostly harmless. I don't want to live where there's blizzards anymore though so I guess I just accept at some point in my life I'll potentially lose everything due to a hurricane. It's my choice I guess so it is what it is

 

[Amped]

13 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

As soon as I saw that big convective burst go by the center and persist I knew it was finally game on. Now with quickly dropping pressures and satellite presentation improving each frame, RI is for sure imminent if not already occurring. 

It just needed some wind to take advantage of the TCHP, everything else was in place. 

[GaWx]

 The 18Z UKMET at 60 is 40 miles ESE of the 12Z at 66.

[MattPetrulli]

Ian is GOING TO WORK, this is not a 60 MPH tropical storm anymore

[WxSynopsisDavid]

Just now, MattPetrulli said:

Ian is GOING TO WORK, this is not a 60 MPH tropical storm anymore

And there its is, finally, the eye of Ian

[bdgwx]

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The 18Z UKMET at 60 is 40 miles ESE of the 12Z at 66.

Yeah. It's looking like the odds of an oblique landfall angle or coast hugger have increased per model guidance today. Just because the ensembles are focusing on a more northward landfall does not necessarily mean the populated areas along the west coast of FL will be spared.

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

 Bedtime.  The best dynamic model available to me, 12 km NAM, 979 hPa at landfall a smidge S of TPA

May I suggest extending your bedtime.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Floydbuster said:

Anyone have stats on the last direct hurricane impacts to Tampa? I know 1921 was the last direct major strike, but what was the last Cat 1 or 2?

- Alma of 1966 caused 93 mph gusts and significant surge in the area though eye passed offshore

- 1946 was last direct hit off Gulf

[jacindc]

11 pm, 65 mph, 989 mb

[WxSynopsisDavid]

For humor purposes only.......want to see the potential "world record" RI process inbound? A 103mb drop in 12hrs.......brought to you by.......your neighborhood friendly 00z 3km NAM run

[WxSynopsisDavid]

...and we will just ignore the fact its virtualy stalled doing that so yeah, no upwelling what so ever lol

[CamSE-Wx]

[TPAwx]

Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

The storm has become better organized-looking on satellite imagery, 
with strengthening central convection and developing banding 
features.  Upper-level anticyclonic outflow also appears to be 
increasing over the system.  Flight-level winds, Doppler radar 
velocities, and dropsonde data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
indicate that Ian's intensity is now near 55 kt.

Ian has turned toward the northwest and the initial motion estimate
is now 315/11 kt.  During the next 48 hours, the tropical cyclone
is expected to turn toward the north as it moves along the western
side of a mid-level high pressure area.  Later in the forecast
period, a broad mid-tropospheric trough over the eastern United 
States is likely to induce a slightly east of northward motion.  
However, around 4 days, the steering currents are forecast to 
weaken as the trough moves to the east of Ian's longitude.  Some 
of the guidance model tracks such as that from the GFS have, again, 
shifted to the east, mainly after 48 hours.  The official track 
forecast has been shifted somewhat to the east of the previous one 
and is mainly a blend of the latest ECMWF and GFS predictions.  It 
should again be stressed that there is still significant 
uncertainty in the track of Ian, especially in the 3-5 day time 
frame.  Users should not focus on the details of the track forecast 
at longer time ranges.

Observations from the aircraft indicate that the tropical cyclone 
is developing an inner core, so significant intensification is 
likely to occur during the next couple of days.  The SHIPS Rapid 
Intensification Index indicate a fairly high chance for rapid 
strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours, and the official 
forecast reflects this likelihood, calling for Ian to become a 
major hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico

[bdgwx]

That's a pretty significant shift east on the OFCL track. One other notable change is that while the 8pm track had an increasing right component to it's track the 11pm track may even have an ever so slight left jog keeping it more parallel to the coast for longer. 

[Reginaldo Lourenco]

Now coming further east How should it affect Jacksonville?

[bdgwx]

0Z DSHIP is aggressive with intensification in the near term. 

                                 *                  GFS version                   *
                                 * ATLANTIC     2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST     *
                                 * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                                 *  IAN         AL092022  09/26/22  00 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120   132   144   156   168
V (KT) NO LAND    50    57    66    77    88   104   117   116   112    99    87    75    65    54    45    36    30
V (KT) LAND       50    57    66    77    88    99   112   111   107    94    82    51    34    29    27    27    28
V (KT) LGEM       50    55    61    70    81    89   115   111    97    82    67    43    32    28    27    27    28
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  EXTP

SHEAR (KT)         3     0     2     4     3     7    17    24    37    36    41    36    44    35    39    42    44
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     2     5     0    -1    -1     0     2     2     3     3     3     4     0    -3    -4    -3     5
SHEAR DIR         40    96   293   310   170   173   195   211   216   248   240   252   242   244   235   237   239
SST (C)         30.0  30.2  30.1  30.3  30.3  30.2  30.0  29.5  29.4  29.5  28.9  28.5  28.0  28.2  28.3  27.6  27.0
POT. INT. (KT)   170   172   172   172   171   171   169   159   156   158   149   143   136   138   140   133   126
ADJ. POT. INT.   167   170   167   168   166   160   152   138   133   134   126   120   113   113   116   112   106
200 MB T (C)   -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.5 -51.6 -51.7 -50.9 -50.9 -50.7 -50.7 -50.4 -50.1 -50.2 -50.6 -51.1
200 MB VXT (C)   0.2   0.3   0.3   0.3   0.5   0.8   1.0   1.2   0.9   0.8   0.7   0.8   1.3   1.7   1.9   1.7   1.3
TH_E DEV (C)       8     7     7     8     7     6     4     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     1     0     0
700-500 MB RH     73    72    73    73    72    66    57    48    39    34    34    41    45    46    43    40    47
MODEL VTX (KT)    16    17    20    23    26    29    35    34    36    33    31    28    27    23    20    16    16
850 MB ENV VOR    63    50    43    66    80    64    92   114   120   133   113    82    82    65    50    51    54
200 MB DIV       107   106    53    66   112    69    91    97    78    61    79    72    44    31    28    48    52
700-850 TADV       6     9     7     7     5     7     5     4     3     4    -2     9     9    15    13     8    29
LAND (KM)        311   347   369   267   147     3   208   241   188   156    58   -88  -181  -202  -286  -468  -603
LAT (DEG N)     16.9  17.8  18.7  19.7  20.6  22.5  24.4  26.1  27.2  28.2  29.4  30.7  32.3 xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x 
LONG(DEG W)     80.9  81.7  82.5  83.1  83.6  84.2  84.6  84.6  84.6  84.4  84.0  83.5  83.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT)    11    12    12    11    10    10     9     7     5     6     7     7     7     6     8    13    15
HEAT CONTENT      50    58    66    83   105    94    86    40    32    32    44     3     2     3     3     2     1

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:    18.3%   68.7%   56.0%   38.4%   30.7%   74.3%   66.8%   32.1%
    Logistic:    19.1%   72.0%   58.6%   54.2%   36.0%   47.8%   31.3%    0.4%
    Bayesian:     4.3%   51.3%   30.4%   15.2%   11.2%   32.5%   22.6%    0.2%
   Consensus:    13.9%   64.0%   48.3%   35.9%   26.0%   51.5%   40.3%   10.9%
       DTOPS:    12.0%   98.0%   94.0%   91.0%   34.0%   89.0%   97.0%   64.0%

 

[WxWatcher007]

Just getting back home and finally getting a good look at Ian. IR doesn't always tell the story, but tonight we see numerous meaningful clues that after developing a structure earlier in the day, Ian is finally taking advantage of an increasingly favorable environment. 

From just a few hours ago, it was evident that Ian was starting to pick up the pace of organization with the development of spiral bands and hints of an inner core. 

With IR, we see multiple vortical towers trying to wrap around that core. The very intense convection itself probably has this near hurricane force if not already there. 

Finally, I like taking a look at the Weathernerds WV to make sense of whats happening under the cloud tops. 

Much like the IR, you see how in recent hours the towers have gone up and tried wrapping around a developing core. I haven't had a chance to dive deep into long term track and impacts, but in the last few hours Ian has certainly put "meat on the bones" so to speak. This leads to the eye-like feature (we don't quite know until confirmed by recon) that @MattPetrulli posted earlier. 

Nothing earth shattering, but I expect recon to find Ian a hurricane tonight. Once there is a fully developed inner core, this one should be able to take off intensity wise. Dry air may have hindered the convective activity earlier, but this is a delayed but not denied situation IMO. 

[Floydbuster]

That CDO should really crank overnight. 

[CamSE-Wx]

GFS tad west so far, slower through 42