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Hurricane Ian


Scott747
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  On 9/26/2022 at 12:45 AM, SnowGoose69 said:

Historically hasn’t there never been a big storm to go into the big bend area?  That would tell me it’s still likely this goes closer to Tampa, albeit probably north, maybe approximately crystal river or so 

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The whole cone is pretty uniform as far as climo goes

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  On 9/26/2022 at 1:04 AM, Floydbuster said:

Anyone have stats on the last direct hurricane impacts to Tampa? I know 1921 was the last direct major strike, but what was the last Cat 1 or 2?

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https://www.baynews9.com/fl/tampa/weather/2021/06/07/notable-hurricanes-that-impacted-tampa-bay-that-you-may-not-have-heard-about

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Looking at the environment ahead of Ian tonight, besides the lack of dry air and windshear the OHC is very high ahead of this system. Also, something to note here, there are a few warm eddies ahead of Ian so its very possible this anticipated RI process could lean towards an "explosive intensification" process once Ian gets an established CDO and eye. Its also now following the tail end of the loop current so we should start to see remarkable/appreciable structure changes soon.

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  On 9/26/2022 at 1:25 AM, TPAwx said:

It was pretty shocking to experience as most here had their guard down after escaping the worst of Irma.  Also a good reminder that a lower end TC with lots of stacked energy can be extremely impactful here.

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And then Elsa underperformed the storm surge warnings a season later, even though it was at hurricane status closer to Tampa. So the size of the wind field and lead time fetch matter a lot for storm surge height, especially in the GOM. 

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