MattPetrulli Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, Amped said: The core was so tiny the first time it might have been a localized effect due to a hot tower. Yes, could be right about this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 11 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Can we take a minute and talk about the inland situation for GA/SC and northward? Pretty good rains forecast. Not just inland. The GA/SC coast looks to get hammered with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 Don't sleep on the inland freshwater rain threat with this system. Looks like possible big totals for the Carolinas up into Central Virginia. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 Historically hasn’t there never been a big storm to go into the big bend area? That would tell me it’s still likely this goes closer to Tampa, albeit probably north, maybe approximately crystal river or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 0z hurricane models split between north of Tampa landfall and Big Bend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Historically hasn’t there never been a big storm to go into the big bend area? That would tell me it’s still likely this goes closer to Tampa, albeit probably north, maybe approximately crystal river or so The whole cone is pretty uniform as far as climo goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 Ian really getting its act together now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 Recon found the center again, along with a temperature spike indicating core formation in progress 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 Pretty crazy how the one big burst of convection completely changed the IR presentation of the storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 32 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: The mean is literally in the exact same position. Maybe 10 miles east. It does have a lot more members TPA south and reintroduced Ft Myers. But it also added California evidently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 1 minute ago, TradeWinds said: It does have a lot more members TPA south and reintroduced Ft Myers. But it also added California evidently. It also sent more members to New Orleans 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 Anyone have stats on the last direct hurricane impacts to Tampa? I know 1921 was the last direct major strike, but what was the last Cat 1 or 2? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: It also sent more members to New Orleans Anything is possible but the flip flopping is proof this model is lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyEC Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: Anyone have stats on the last direct hurricane impacts to Tampa? I know 1921 was the last direct major strike, but what was the last Cat 1 or 2? Tropical Storm Josephine in 1996. Would have probably been classified a hurricane by todays standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 12 minutes ago, TradeWinds said: It does have a lot more members TPA south and reintroduced Ft Myers. But it also added California evidently. TPA already closing schools Tuesday and Wednesday and talking about evacuations for certain areas starting late tomorrow Favoring that Euro track 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 10 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: Anyone have stats on the last direct hurricane impacts to Tampa? I know 1921 was the last direct major strike, but what was the last Cat 1 or 2? https://www.baynews9.com/fl/tampa/weather/2021/06/07/notable-hurricanes-that-impacted-tampa-bay-that-you-may-not-have-heard-about 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 24 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: It was pretty shocking to experience as most here had their guard down after escaping the worst of Irma. Also a good reminder that a lower end TC with lots of stacked energy can be extremely impactful here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 https://www.weather.gov.ky/radar Radar from Grand Cayman to use has Ian's center in range 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 The towing business in and around TPA has gone into freakout mode. Good luck finding a way to relocate your winter RV in the next 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 Looking at the environment ahead of Ian tonight, besides the lack of dry air and windshear the OHC is very high ahead of this system. Also, something to note here, there are a few warm eddies ahead of Ian so its very possible this anticipated RI process could lean towards an "explosive intensification" process once Ian gets an established CDO and eye. Its also now following the tail end of the loop current so we should start to see remarkable/appreciable structure changes soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 @LopWx A strong cold front from Canada, battling out the warm moist air of Ian. The cold front slows down Ian a lot, which will allow for more storm surge, and tons of rain to be dumped on parts of Central and Western Florida 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 Ian is now over 85-87 degree SST's, moving over bath water. Ian has all the ingredients it needs to RI now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 Prior 4 GFs runs all at 8pm Wednesday. The correction to the East is dramatic 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 30 minutes ago, TPAwx said: It was pretty shocking to experience as most here had their guard down after escaping the worst of Irma. Also a good reminder that a lower end TC with lots of stacked energy can be extremely impactful here. And then Elsa underperformed the storm surge warnings a season later, even though it was at hurricane status closer to Tampa. So the size of the wind field and lead time fetch matter a lot for storm surge height, especially in the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 Unflagged 988.5 found. So we more than likely wake up to a CAT 1 in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Hotair said: Unflagged 988.5 found. So we more than likely wake up to a CAT 1 in the morning May be there sooner than later. Satellite also looks increasingly better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Ho Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 Going to be a hectic day in Tampa tomorrow. HOT HOT towers rotating around the center now. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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