Hurricane Ian

[NeffsvilleWx]

If it keeps riding the east side of the cone, prep is going to drastically intensify here in Melbourne.

I think most are just expecting a wet, windy day.

 

NWS isn’t even forecasting wind speeds for wednesday and Thursday at the moment, just including “tropical storm conditions possible” for those days.

[KChuck]

21 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1. Tampa's last direct hit off the Gulf by a hurricane was way back in 1946. I don't know what the surge was at Tampa:

 

2. Alma of 1966, which paralleled the FL w coast, produced wind gusts to 93 mph in the Tampa area. New Port Richey to the north had a storm tide of 10 feet. I don't know what Tampa had:

 

3. Easy of 1950 produced a surge of 6.5 feet at Tampa Bay, the highest then since 1921 per Wikipedia. It just missed a direct hit on Tampa as it looped, but it still produced severe damage there:

 

4. The 1935 hurricane passed just enough offshore Tampa to cause 75 mph winds and a storm surge of 5.3 feet:

 

I looked up the 1946 hurricane in the newspaper archives. You're not going to believe it. I'll let you read for yourselves.

CLIPPED FROM
Tampa Bay Times
St. Petersburg, Florida
09 Oct 1946, Wed  •  Page 1

[Hotair]

I don’t think the euro has Ian as intense at this hour as it’s been found to be on recon dropsonde.  
 

I wonder how that will affect the euro model on the next run once that data gets absorbed? 

[dan11295]

Big blowup of convection over the center in the past hour. Combined with the pressure falls already seen would think Ian really starts to take off now. Lets see how well that convection maintains itself.

[Hoosier]

41 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

 

You have a smooth on-camera delivery/presence.  Could pass for a TV met with a little wardrobe change.  

[StantonParkHoya]

3 minutes ago, Hotair said:

I don’t think the euro has Ian as intense at this hour as it’s been found to be on recon dropsonde.  
 

I wonder how that will affect the euro model on the next run once that data gets absorbed? 

GFS had it stronger

[NeffsvilleWx]

7 minutes ago, Hotair said:

I don’t think the euro has Ian as intense at this hour as it’s been found to be on recon dropsonde.  
 

I wonder how that will affect the euro model on the next run once that data gets absorbed? 

12z euro didn’t have 992 until tomorrow afternoon

[CheeselandSkies]

12z euro didn’t have 992 until tomorrow afternoon

Euro isn't a TC intensity model and its pressures shouldn't be taken verbatim.

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

[shaggy]

28 minutes ago, TradeWinds said:

NHC and some models hint at a west jog sometime overnight. For now, the storm keeps riding the right side of their cone. Will be curious to see if it wobbles west at some point. 

With the big blow up of deep convection just north of the center don't be surprised it if tucks north instead of west.

[hawkeye_wx]

Oddly, the extrapolated pressure on the new recon pass is several mb higher than the first one.  The center also seems to have jumped west.

[MattPetrulli]

60 MPH and 991 MB at 8 PM

[Scott747]

Could be one of those 'bombs away' kinda night.

[MattPetrulli]

1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Oddly, the extrapolated pressure on the new recon pass is several mb higher than the first one.

I think they may have missed the true center due to the hot tower to the north of it. Could be incorrect though

[Hotair]

 

000
WTNT34 KNHC 252357
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

...IAN STRENGTHENING...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS
IN WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 80.8W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM S OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman
* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge southward to Key West,
including the Dry Tortugas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in central Cuba, the remainder of the Florida Keys, and
the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 80.8 West.  Ian is 
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A turn toward 
the north-northwest is expected on Monday followed by a northward 
motion on Tuesday with a slightly slower forward speed.  On the 
forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to pass near or west 
of the Cayman Islands on Monday, and near or over western Cuba 
Monday night and early Tuesday.  Ian will then emerge over the 
southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast tonight, 
followed by more rapid strengthening on Monday and Tuesday.  Ian is 
forecast to become a hurricane on Monday and a major hurricane on 
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft observations is 991 mb (29.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Grand Cayman on
Monday, with tropical storm conditions beginning late tonight.  
Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba by
early Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by late
Monday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area in Cuba Monday night and Tuesday.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac on Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the lower Florida Keys by
Tuesday.

RAINFALL:  Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall:

Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up
to 8 inches.

Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 16 inches.

Florida Keys into southern and central Florida Peninsula: 2 to 4
inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches beginning Monday through
Wednesday morning.

Heavy rainfall may affect North Florida, the Florida Panhandle and
the Southeast Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban
flooding are possible across the Florida Keys and the Florida
peninsula through mid week. Additional flooding and rises on
area streams and rivers across northern Florida and parts of the
southeast U.S. later this week cannot be ruled out, especially in
central Florida given already saturated conditions.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

East Cape Sable, FL to Card Sound Bridge...1-3 ft
Florida Keys, FL including Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Florida Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet
above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas
of onshore winds in the hurricane warning area Monday night
and early Tuesday.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Ian are affecting Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands. Swells will spread northwestward to the southwestern coast
of Cuba and the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico on Monday and Monday night. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Hotair]

NHC not yet ready to shift cone further East.  

[TradeWinds]

1 minute ago, Hotair said:

They still plan for the due west jump. 8 PM now says moving NW. That wasn't planned until tonight but it's been all day. 

[dan11295]

Cone never changes on intermediate advisories.

[MattPetrulli]

18z Euro a little west, but stronger

[StantonParkHoya]

Euro about 50 miles west, pretty similar to GFS.

We may finally be getting a good idea on Florida target.

[TradeWinds]

6 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Euro about 50 miles west, pretty similar to GFS.

We may finally be getting a good idea on Florida target.

Maybe. Depends on what was initialized. NHC position went almost NNW from 2 PM to 8 PM. Not sure the big jump N was forecasted.

2 PM: 15.7N, 80.0W

8 PM: 17.0N, 80.8W

[WxSynopsisDavid]

8 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Euro about 50 miles west, pretty similar to GFS.

We may finally be getting a good idea on Florida target.

Until Ian gets better organized and we see an eye develop, we wont have any better idea in the long term and neither will the models. Expect additional back and forth in terms of track until then

[gymengineer]

Are you all comparing the same frame? 72 hours on the 18Z Euro is 18Z on Wednesday. Compared to 18Z Wednesday on the 12Z run, it’s a bit further north, not west. 

[cptcatz]

2 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

Are you all comparing the same frame? 72 hours on the 18Z Euro is 18Z on Wednesday. Compared to 18Z Wednesday on the 12Z run, it’s a bit further north, not west. 

It's a bit north and west. 

[StantonParkHoya]

2 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

Are you all comparing the same frame? 72 hours on the 18Z Euro is 18Z on Wednesday. Compared to 18Z Wednesday on the 12Z run, it’s a bit further north, not west. 

Semantics. 12z has it going into Tampa, 18z has it parallel to Tampa 

[Weather Mike]

17 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

18z Euro a little west, but stronger

Euro has been consistent and I see GFS coming east. I see a landfall somewhere at or north of Tampa 

[MattPetrulli]

18z GEFS goes east

[StantonParkHoya]

Can we take a minute and talk about the inland situation for GA/SC and northward? Pretty good rains forecast.

[StantonParkHoya]

1 minute ago, MattPetrulli said:

18z GEFS goes east

The mean is literally in the exact same position. Maybe 10 miles east. 

[Amped]

28 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

I think they may have missed the true center due to the hot tower to the north of it. Could be incorrect though

The core was so tiny the first time it might have been a localized effect due to a hot tower.

[MattPetrulli]

2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

The mean is literally in the exact same position. Maybe 10 miles east. 

More ensembles on 18z going towards peninsula + showing the stall along with more W Florida landfalls. Just off the pure eye. The mean itself may be deviated by the members which go in west of PC, which probably won't happen.