jrips27 Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 941mb splits the Yucatán-Cuba gap. looks like it’s going to be running up further west in the gulf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 Another terrifying GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 Moving due north at this time. Likely will start hooking NE into the panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 Verbatim it’s weakening pretty quickly at landfall but wouldn’t focus too much on that. Definitely a serious threat upcoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 927 mb at peak in Eastern Gulf. Some keep mentioning the fact that it weakens before landfall from an intense Cat 4/5 peak. That's true....but just imagine the storm surge potential it could build up. Good grief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyEC Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 1 minute ago, Floydbuster said: 927 mb at peak in Eastern Gulf. Some keep mentioning the fact that it weakens before landfall from an intense Cat 4/5 peak. That's true....but just imagine the storm surge potential it could build up. Good grief. Like Ike, hit as a Cat 2 with Cat 4 storm surge. If this clears the Yucatán uprights (between Cuba and the peninsula, forgive the football analogy). The surge potential will be catastrophic. Nothing to slow down the wall of water. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 About as much consistency you can have 7+ days out. GFS, CMC, Icon at 180 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 The 00z Euro would be a wild double-feature event for the US. Fortunately, it's unlikely to play out like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 It definitely has a spin. Notice the northerly shear from Hurricane Fiona's outflow has let up ever-so-slightly the further north Fiona moves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 The Euro shows the potential for an S FL / East Coast Strike. The bend north after the recurve is a bit unsettling.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 I am wondering if interaction with S America may slow down 98L more than the 2-3 days likely development of the TWOAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 The GFS weakening at landfall makes sense, except that would likely be because of offshore winds (from NE) ahead of then Hermine would be pushing water into the Gulf and upwelling cool water, and I don't think (I could be wrong) the GFS changes SST/OHC, ie, not coupled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 https://ocean.weather.gov/Loops/ocean_guidance.php?model=GOES&area=GMex&plot=sst&day=0&loop=0 The Northern GOM has been trending for the past two weeks to toward cooler temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 The latest euro runs are just the next iteration of the pattern evolution we have seen over the past month. At a synoptic level, you have to benchmark this system accordingly. Sure it could end up quite different, but this makes the most sense right now; minus all the details. The EPS shows the UL trough interaction by day 5, so a key feature is within model accuracy view 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 Does anyone have access to the 6Z GFS yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, Seminole said: Does anyone have access to the 6Z GFS yet? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 7 minutes ago, jrips27 said: I wonder why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 17 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I wonder why I guess the supercomputer is not so super after all. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: I am wondering if interaction with S America may slow down 98L more than the 2-3 days likely development of the TWOAT. That's honestly what I'm betting on at this point. I think continued development over the next 72 hours remains slow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 58 minutes ago, jbenedet said: The latest euro runs are just the next iteration of the pattern evolution we have seen over the past month. At a synoptic level, you have to benchmark this system accordingly. Sure it could end up quite different, but this makes the most sense right now; minus all the details. The EPS shows the UL trough interaction by day 5, so a key feature is within model accuracy view Do you think the trend is toward the southern Florida peninsula? That 00z Euro run hit my house bad in Palm Beach County. Same track through Florida as Wilma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 A tick East and slightly quicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 Bus ticket to Atlanta on 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 4 hours ago, Normandy said: The Euro shows the potential for an S FL / East Coast Strike. The bend north after the recurve is a bit unsettling.... any model pics of that ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 20 minutes ago, jrips27 said: A tick East and slightly quicker This appears to be a reasonable track this early; a lot can and will change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 0Z UKMET shifted north quite a bit. It is now in the general vicinity as the 0Z ECMWF despite being weaker. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 6z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 Rapidly weakens (+32 mbar) the last 36 hours before landfall. This reminds me of Opal 1995. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, Seminole said: Rapidly weakens (+32 mbar) the last 36 hours before landfall. This reminds me of Opal 1995. That really is the norm for landfalling gulf storms. Particularly in October 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 If you want a strong landfall you want this to get pulled up ahead of the trough and moving briskly in a NE direction into landfall so it’s going with the shear vector. You also don’t want a system going into the big bend area of Florida where there is extensive shelf water. A Charley like track would yield your strongest LF, in the situation as modeled. If this gets left behind the trough, it will be encircled in dry stable air, moving slower over shelf waters, and subject to NW shear. That’s why the GFS is showing rapid weakening. It is FAR too early to discuss these specifics. The storm isn’t even formed yet and the trough interaction is long range. My gut says whatever forms will end up further east, maybe Euro type track, as that has been the trend this year for models to go too far west then correct east, especially with unusually low heights on the east coast. Let’s monitor cyclone formation before nitpicking intensity at long range. Happy tracking. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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