MattPetrulli Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 MUCH more organized system 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Just now, MattPetrulli said: Surge will be bad, but lets not under estimate the potential for a Cat 2-3 eyewall to be going through Tampa. They have great building codes but that would cause significant damage regardless. ...and a prolonged wind event at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 To you guys who live in Tampa Bay, I wish you guys the best of luck with this storm and I hope you all fare better in the long term then what we are seeing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Same deal as 5 AM this morning. All it will take is a few towers in the core. Then, it's just a matter of how much this piles up surge during the next several days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 I'd call this a significant change in 24 hrs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 New Moon for the Tampa Bay Area as of 5:54 PM today. The lunar cycle will also be a factor in the impending tidal surge threat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyEC Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 1 minute ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: To you guys who live in Tampa Bay, I wish you guys the best of luck with this storm and I hope you all fare better in the long term then what we are seeing. I agree, if you aren’t 10-15 feet above sea level, I would find a place that is. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Ian down to 990mb, looks to be a temperature spike near the center too. We are likely about to see convection rapidly going up near and around the center very shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 7 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: Surge will be bad, but lets not under estimate the potential for a Cat 2-3 eyewall to be going through Tampa. They have great building codes but that would cause significant damage regardless. Great. And I wasn’t going to mention this but my neighbor had their policy non renewed by their ins co. I found out yesterday he decided to sit on it until next year because he was convinced the Hurricane threat was done for the year. ( his house is paid for). Now he can only buy insurance with a 15 day grace period meaning he is going commando into this storm. convective burst is much better organized now than earlier. I think we are going to start buzz sawing soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 990mb currently, that is a 15mb drop in 5 hours. Very certain we see hurricane force winds at the surface in the next several hours once convection gets going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, AnthonyEC said: I agree, if you aren’t 10-15 feet above sea level, I would find a place that is. I will be traveling inland to my son’s. Getting on road tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Curious to see how NHC treats new data. 990 MB is a large drop with a 55 knot SFMR recorded. Wonder if they'll put out an update statement or wait until 8 PM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Latest recon at 989 should prompt NHC to issue a special advisory shortly upgrading Ian to a Cat 1 cane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Circulation looks good. Convection starting to fire at the center. Dry air being mixed out. Soon to be boom time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 14 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: 990mb currently, that is a 15mb drop in 5 hours. Very certain we see hurricane force winds at the surface in the next several hours once convection gets going This is similar to what Harvey, Delta, and Micheal did. All had a sudden convective burst that dropped the pressure from about 1003mb to 990mb in a few hours. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Just now, Amped said: This is similar to what Harvey, Delta, and Micheal did. All had a sudden convective burst that dropped the pressure from about 1003mb to 990mb in a few hours. Exactly, which draws into perspective that Ian is deepening at a much faster rate than what was originally forecasted and shown by the models. This is going to be huge/detrimental to the forecast track so I expect further adjustments on the models tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Since 1921, Tampa has been hit by hurricanes from the Gulf in 1966, 1950, 1946, and 1935: 1. Tampa's last direct hit off the Gulf by a hurricane was way back in 1946. I don't know what the surge was at Tampa: 2. Alma of 1966, which paralleled the FL w coast, produced wind gusts to 93 mph in the Tampa area. New Port Richey to the north had a storm tide of 10 feet. I don't know what Tampa had: 3. Easy of 1950 produced a surge of 6.5 feet at Tampa Bay, the highest then since 1921 per Wikipedia. It just missed a direct hit on Tampa as it looped, but it still produced severe damage there: 4. The 1935 hurricane passed just enough offshore Tampa to cause 75 mph winds and a storm surge of 5.3 feet: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Anyone else seeing this move more NNW recently as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Best scenario for Tampa at this point would be for Ian to come ashore further south. Of course the downside of that is likely going to be a stronger storm at landfall. South of Tampa probably has a much higher risk of coming ashore as a major. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, shaggy said: Anyone else seeing this move more NNW recently as well? It probably reformed under the blob, so give it a couple hours to stabilize 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Big blow up near the center 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, dan11295 said: Best scenario for Tampa at this point would be for Ian to come ashore further south. Of course the downside of that is likely going to be a stronger storm at landfall. South of Tampa probably has a much higher risk of coming ashore as a major. If that happens we just worry about a wind/rain event as all the water in Tampa Bay will be sucked out and pushed into Sarasota Bay or wherever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 If that blob takes off we are off to the races tonight. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: Exactly, which draws into perspective that Ian is deepening at a much faster rate than what was originally forecasted and shown by the models. This is going to be huge/detrimental to the forecast track so I expect further adjustments on the models tonight. The current location is exactly where the Euro had it dropping below 1000 mb for the first time across several ensemble members. Not sure why that would deviate current forecasts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: If that blob takes off we are off to the races tonight. "The little engine that could" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 If Ian follows the euro model trajectory it will definitely have its name retired. Yet another “I” for posterity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 NHC and some models hint at a west jog sometime overnight. For now, the storm keeps riding the right side of their cone. Will be curious to see if it wobbles west at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Unfortunately, Ian strengthening and moving further North and East of cone , means Havana Cuba is in for a rough ride Monday night to Tuesday. I doubt their electricity infrastructure is any better than Puerto Rico’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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