Hurricane Ian

[Big Jims Videos]

I'd call that a significant jump east on the GFS.  Tampa evacuations should prepare like....tonight.  

[WxSynopsisDavid]

1 minute ago, Big Jims Videos said:

I'd call that a significant jump east on the GFS.  Tampa evacuations should prepare like....tonight.  

Very concerning, that slow creep on approach and near stall right off the coast of Tampa would be a huge storm surge disaster for that area. Definitely not good by any means

[Big Jims Videos]

My friend is in Trinity and says no evacuation orders yet. Traffic is horrendous on a normal day there.  This is concerning. 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

My friend is in Trinity and says no evacuation orders yet. Traffic is horrendous on a normal day there.  This is concerning. 

Tampa Bay area is well zoned for evacuations. They typically don't start before D2. The powers that be know what needs to be done.

[SnowenOutThere]

3 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

My friend is in Trinity and says no evacuation orders yet. Traffic is horrendous on a normal day there.  This is concerning. 

If the euro is correct they got 3 days to prepare. 

[Tatamy]

18z GFS - A track like this where the center lingers along the west coast of FL not far from Tampa Bay is going to cause major tidal surge issues.

 

[Chambana]

I have a friend just N of Tampa in Tarpon Springs, he’s not paying any attention to the storm. Bad call on his part. 

[Prospero]

Evacuations won't happen here in Tampa Bay until Warnings are out. Supplies are already hard to find; water, batteries, etc. Supermarkets and stores like Walmart have been packed.

Some of are "getting ready" to put up window protections and batten things down. But we'll wait a while still. What I am doing in my backyard is something that I've wanted to do for a few years anyway, ever since we recreated our yard after Irma. LOL

[TPAwx]

Feeling good that I booked our hotel options Friday.  
 

Was just out to get groceries and gas, both a breeze because there’s a home football game in progress.  Priorities and such. 

[WxSynopsisDavid]

Don't agree with the GFS wanting to take Ian on a slow craw up the western FL coastline. Really think this comes ashore near Tampa or just to the north of Tampa. Either way, whether this landfalls Tamp or it slow crawls, both scenarios paint a disastrous storm surge/pro-longed wind event for Tampa Bay.  

[StantonParkHoya]

Kind of lurches it around to a Big Bend landfall 

[WxSynopsisDavid]

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Kind of lurches it around to a Big Bend landfall 

Yeah I would say the GFS is out to lunch on this one. GFS tends to struggle with these Florida canes because it either likes to slide the trough out quicker or it holds it back longer. GFS never really depicts these troughs right.

[StantonParkHoya]

1 minute ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Yeah I would say the GFS is out to lunch on this one. GFS tends to struggle with these Florida canes because it either likes to slide the trough out quicker or it holds it back longer. GFS never really depicts these troughs right.

The trough position really hasn’t change, it’s more storm speed/trajectory

[TradeWinds]

GFS crosses Cuba on 18z where Euro has been for the last 2 days. Maybe even more east over Cuba.

[WxSynopsisDavid]

Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

The trough position really hasn’t change, it’s more storm speed/trajectory

I'm talking about past events and how the GFS handled them. This is typical GFS

[WxSynopsisDavid]

Just now, WxSynopsisDavid said:

I'm talking about past events and how the GFS handled them. This is typical GFS

Ultimately the storm speed/trajectory is going to be determined by the trough sweeping south too as well as the evolving blocking pattern.

[NorthHillsWx]

NHC explicitly mentioned significant degradation of the storm prior to LF on their discussion, obviously if it goes west of the peninsula.

[wxeyeNH]

I use Weatherbell  for model info. Great product.   I am not sure how accurate the GFS wind products are, but this is the wind gusts in mph when Ian makes it closest approach  to Tampa (18Z).   It almost stalls in this position at around 967mb bring strong south winds into Tampa Bay.  

[StantonParkHoya]

As has been mentioned, winds are really a non issue compared to the surge

[AnthonyEC]

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

As has been mentioned, winds are really a non issue compared to the surge

Winds push the water and if the storm stalls as the 18Z GFS shows, it just piles up with no where to go. 

[Tatamy]

2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

As has been mentioned, winds are really a non issue compared to the surge

Strongly agree as shown on the scenario in this run.

[Weather Mike]

3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

As has been mentioned, winds are really a non issue compared to the surge

surge into tampa bay will not be good if that unfolds 

[WxSynopsisDavid]

1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

I use Weatherbell  for model info. Great product.   I am not sure how accurate the GFS wind products are, but this is the wind gusts in mph when Ian makes it closest approach  to Tampa (18Z).   It almost stalls in this position at around 967mb bring strong south winds into Tampa Bay.  

That is going to be absolutely nasty for Tampa Bay with storm surge going up into the Bay with nowhere to go.

[MattPetrulli]

Recon already finding a more organized storm than last run

[Prospero]

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

As has been mentioned, winds are really a non issue compared to the surge

Hurricane Agnes was biggest surge we've had in about 100 years. Wind was a non-issue, rain was nothing memorable. But the 10ft Storm Surge across Tampa Bay was indeed something to remember.

That is a 10ft surge. We hear about 30 ft sometimes when we are in the cone of a big one.

[WxSynopsisDavid]

A better option at this point for Tampa Bay would be if this thing can landfall vs a potential stall off the coast. Both scenarios will be bad but the landfall scenario would probably be the best case scenario at this point. Hard to fathom the disaster this would be

[Hotair]

22 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

If the euro is correct they got 3 days to prepare. 

2 and a half to be safe. Probably don’t want to evacuate under major lightning storms.  At least hillsborough schools have been cancelled now in preparation of storm shelters.  

[TPAwx]

1 minute ago, Hotair said:

2 and a half to be safe. Probably don’t want to evacuate under major lightning storms.  At least hillsborough schools have been cancelled now in preparation of storm shelters.  

Once this gets to a Major and if the track still is close to TB, 75N and I4 will be a parking lot by late afternoon Tuesday.

[Hotair]

2 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Hurricane Agnes was biggest surge we've had in about 100 years. Wind was a non-issue, rain was nothing memorable. But the 10ft Storm Surge across Tampa Bay was indeed something to remember.

That is a 10ft surge. We hear about 30 ft sometimes when we are in the cone of a big one.

Sections of road in my neighborhood in South Tampa become impassable by cars after a heavy rain fall lasting 20 minutes.  If you throw the Bay waters at us during hurricanes we will have many homes flooded.  I would love to see how the tide tables match up with the storm arrival. High tide could easily add 4+ feet to the surge 

[MattPetrulli]

Surge will be bad, but lets not under estimate the potential for a Cat 2-3 eyewall to be going through Tampa. They have great building codes but that would cause significant damage regardless.