HKY_WX Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Ian has a large circulation which sometimes take longer to wrap up. This could be a decent sized windfield once it gets going. I would go with the Euro for track (for obvious reasons). This will be a very costly track if most of western FL (TB and south) is in the eastern flank. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 7 minutes ago, GaWx said: 12Z ICON: goes to Jacksonville, which is 100+ miles east of the 6Z and 0Z runs. Big difference in ICON 12z yesterday (top) vs 12z today (bottom) is a faster Ian and a slightly sharper trough. Wonder if new data ingested yesterday caused the shift to the east. Will be curious what other 12z models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 As I stated before I went to sleep in the wee hours of the morning, I still favor the EURO solution only because it keeps Ian less organized in the short term, which seems likely because of Ian's current disorganization. The models further west like the GFS and similar members, all have Ian basically sub 980-mb by late tonight or the wee hours of tomorrow. That just doesn't seem realistic to me given the current state of organization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Models have shifted towards a more tug from the trough NE once its in the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dbullsfan22 Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Maybe I’m just a super weenie nobody experienced wants to respond to but I was hoping for some responses from the Ian to Tampa crowd from my post in the banter thread, I posted it over there to not clutter over here, but it seems a lot of calling for a hurricane to a place that hasn’t been hit with one in 100 years. The odds just don’t seem likely 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 GFS has been trending east for the past few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, NeffsvilleWx said: GFS has been trending east for the past few runs Yep east tick continues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 ECMWF ensembles 18z, 00z, 6z. Clusters tightening and noticeably weaker in the Gulf. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Significant east shift now 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 CMC is a nose east thru 54 but its been more east of the GFS and closer to the Euro so far anyhow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 GFS is slowly coming to the party. Ian is also starting to crank a little with a nice curved band structure evident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: Significant east shift now The 12Z GFS is the furthest east run since at least yesterday's 6Z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 I’m betting they coalesce around Big Bend in the end 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Ian's appearance on satellite looks to be improving. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 I'm leaning towards a lower peak intensity but a stronger landfall. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 GFS position later this afternoon is still S of the current position. I'd be surprised if the GFS doesn't have further corrections in later runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 It’s turning north. Looks like first outer bands are gonna start hitting Southeast Florida by this afternoon or evening. Rosh Hoshanah is coming. I’ll be offline all the way until Tuesday night. By then we might be having a full blown hurricane, if it keeps trending east. im gonna keep my weather radio on so I won’t be taken by surprise. notably, Rosh Hoshanah is judgement day. What timing for a hurricane with such an uncertain forecast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 The wipers are on high on this vehicle. Still time to go more east or back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 The Isle of Youth is a good benchmark for which part of the Peninsula deals with this I think. Any track west means Tampa and north. Any track over or east means SE/SW FL. Still not sold on Panhandle whatsoever (and GFS seems to moving away from that idea also). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 12Z UKMET initialized one degree further north (15.3 N at 8AM EDT vs 14.3 N at same time on 0Z run). It ends up ~20 miles north of the Port Charlotte 0Z landfall point, which is Venice (~60 miles south of Tampa Bay). Another difference vs 0Z is that it never goes offshore N FL/S GA as it stays a little inland: MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 25.09.2022 TROPICAL STORM IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 79.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 25.09.2022 0 15.3N 79.2W 1003 29 0000UTC 26.09.2022 12 16.7N 80.8W 1001 31 1200UTC 26.09.2022 24 18.7N 82.8W 998 35 0000UTC 27.09.2022 36 20.8N 83.9W 995 38 1200UTC 27.09.2022 48 22.9N 84.4W 994 40 0000UTC 28.09.2022 60 24.7N 84.1W 992 45 1200UTC 28.09.2022 72 26.2N 83.7W 989 55 0000UTC 29.09.2022 84 26.9N 82.9W 990 53 1200UTC 29.09.2022 96 26.9N 82.7W 991 49 0000UTC 30.09.2022 108 27.5N 82.1W 993 42 1200UTC 30.09.2022 120 29.1N 82.5W 991 42 0000UTC 01.10.2022 132 30.1N 81.8W 993 36 1200UTC 01.10.2022 144 32.8N 81.3W 996 35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 CMC actually slower and a touch west this run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 34 minutes ago, TradeWinds said: GFS position later this afternoon is still S of the current position. I'd be surprised if the GFS doesn't have further corrections in later runs. GFS is actually showing a center jump to the west between 00z and 06z. Looks suspect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 47 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Ian's appearance on satellite looks to be improving. I agree as it looks the most organized (most stacked) yet imho. Thus, this could be on the verge of intensifying rapidly. This is my first comment on its organization since it got into the Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Clearwater and St. Pete at least looks in the right side passing, if not worse. @Dbullsfan22 I'm already looking for non-met friends down there; otherwise, the Board normally does not do that type of forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Clearwater and St. Pete at least looks in the right side passing, if not worse. @Dbullsfan22 I'm already looking for non-met friends down there; otherwise, the Board normally does not do that type of forecast. Jim Cantore in Clearwater today and never a good sign to see Jim in your neighborhood 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bugalou Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 13 hours ago, Floydbuster said: Some of these models show 40 mb of weakening in six hours prior to landfall. That would be insane. I don't know, I can see it happening. Its highly unusually to have such a cold and dry airmass this far south with a Hurricane right at the coast. If that airmass gets in the way of Ian I can see rapid weakening occur as cP is like fire retardant to a Hurricane without thermal wind/jet support to interact with and introduce baraclonicity a la Fiona. Its just plowing directly into the backside polar high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Yeah it can happen. Was it Opal? Storm in the mid-1990s crapped out on the way in. However they've gone the other way recently. Florida must remain on guard regardless of Category. Big wind field would maintain energy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Thru 54 the newest HWRF is averaging maybe 40-50 miles east of prior run but not much change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bugalou Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 4 hours ago, StormChaser4Life said: Yea im very perplexed as to why convection isn't really taking off My theory is there are multiple mid and low level circulations and elongations that are competing and interfering with one another and things just aren't stacking. Models do an extremely poor job on this scale too. This seems to have been a problem for the past 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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