Hurricane Ian

[Modfan2]

11 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

The EURO shows this becoming a major hurricane, but not right away. 24 hrs from now it's still getting it's act together. That seems much more likely given how disorganized it is right now.

The GFS has this thing taking off immediately and being on it's way to Category 2 status 24 hrs from now. I'm skeptical of that.

Thus, I'm leaning towards the EURO model, atleast short term.

Most all models except GFS are around Tampa area

[NorthHillsWx]

HWRF has the most rapid pre landfall weakening I have ever seen modeled, taking it from 120kts down to 55kts in the 24 hours before landfall.

[NorthHillsWx]

16 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

HWRF has the most rapid pre landfall weakening I have ever seen modeled, taking it from 120kts down to 55kts in the 24 hours before landfall.

HMON said hold my beer. Takes this from a peak of 140+ kts down to a LF of 35 kts in the 36 hours before landfall. Don’t think I’ve ever seen such model consensus for RI followed by rapid weakening over the northern gulf. That being said, if this peaks 120+ kts it is going to be a gigantic threat, regardless what the models are showing in terms of final LF intensity. My gut says this pulls east and hits the peninsula. The Euro has been relatively steadfast 

[Superstorm93]

I'm actually quite surprised how awful Ian looks this morning. 

Really has a good amount of work to do before it can intensify at anything more than a gradual rate. 

 

 

[Radtechwxman]

3 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

I'm actually quite surprised how awful Ian looks this morning. 

Really has a good amount of work to do before it can intensify at anything more than a gradual rate. 

 

 

Yeah it's abysmal. And they expect RI to start later today. I'm very skeptical given the state it's in. Idk why Ian is struggling so much to get organized given it's been out of the shear plenty of time now and is in the warmest waters of the Atlantic. Just weird. Probably really won't know how much it will weaken before landfall till Ian better develops and models can grasp onto it better. I don't forsee weakening as significant as HMON and HWRF are suggesting 

[StantonParkHoya]

48 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Most all models except GFS are around Tampa area

This is simply not true as most hurricane models are into the Panama City to Big Bend areas.

[TPAwx]

4 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said:

0z Euro straight into Tampa; crawling up Florida, only makes it to Gainesville in 24 hours. Looks like it’s heading to Atlanta.

overall pretty similar to 12z

 

4 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Honestly between 0z run yesterday of the Euro and 0z today, it’s maybe a 40 mile difference in track. Noise.

Split the difference with GFS is right where NHC has it. Big bend to central GA.

Yeah it’s noise but for an actual outcome a huge variable.  

Surge much more amplified with 12z, while 0z lingers and dumps 20+ inches.  Local flooding is common with summer downpours of 1-2 inches, can’t imagine what this would do.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, minninni31 said:

ICON still east !!!

Similiar to euro

[Hotair]

Interesting that despite the immense resources being dedicated to forecasting this storm, we have our two best models showing a near 200 mile difference in path just after 3 days away.  

its almost as good as simply having an experienced meteorologist eyeball it and make a guesstimate with a sharpee at this time.  

[Hotair]

8 am

[Kevin Reilly]

It would seem to me that the models are really honking on a tremendous amount of shear and dry air located into the Southeastern states upon arrival of Ian to the Florida West Coast or up in the Panhandle.  There has been dry air up here in the Middle Atlantic and the dry air behind these troughs up here is very stout.

 

I mean it was 43 degrees here in Southeastern Pa with dewpoints running in the lower to middle 30's that type fo dry air means business, and I don't see any reason that the dry air would charge southeast towards Ian behind a trough leaving the Mid Atlantic next week.

[StantonParkHoya]

3 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

It would seem to me that the models are really honking on a tremendous amount of shear and dry air located into the Southeastern states upon arrival of Ian to the Florida West Coast or up in the Panhandle.  There has been dry air up here in the Middle Atlantic and the dry air behind these troughs up here is very stout.

 

I mean it was 43 degrees here in Southeastern Pa with dewpoints running in the lower to middle 30's that type fo dry air means business, and I don't see any reason that the dry air would charge southeast towards Ian behind a trough leaving the Mid Atlantic next week.

It was in the 30s with frost in Boone, NC. Can’t recall many tropical systems of consequence after that stuff starts.

[mattb65]

28 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

It would seem to me that the models are really honking on a tremendous amount of shear and dry air located into the Southeastern states upon arrival of Ian to the Florida West Coast or up in the Panhandle.  There has been dry air up here in the Middle Atlantic and the dry air behind these troughs up here is very stout.

 

I mean it was 43 degrees here in Southeastern Pa with dewpoints running in the lower to middle 30's that type fo dry air means business, and I don't see any reason that the dry air would charge southeast towards Ian behind a trough leaving the Mid Atlantic next week.

Yes, combine that dry air with 40 kts of shear and the only natural expectation should be rapid weakening.

There are a number of people claiming the rapid weakening is implausible. I disagree. If the TC has extremely dry air from the surrounding environment ingested into the core combined with shear strong enough to decouple the LLC and MLC, then rapid weakening is exactly right and is the reason why it's shown by the most accurate hurricane models.

The environment leading to landfall would have to be completely different from what's being modeled for the storm to not rapidly weaken on approach. The tracks taking it toward Tampa aren't impacted as much by the shear in the Northern Gulf, and some that completely miss influence of the trough and stay further south and west in the Gulf might be able to maintain intensity.

With the storm all being so disorganized, it's very much a guessing game which track will end up being correct. My main point is that rapid weakening leading up to landfall if it follows the track currently modeled on the HWRF and GFS is not outlandish/wrong as some have indicated.

[hawkeye_wx]

Recon is finally finding an actual surface center, but now it's struggling to produce core convection in a light shear environment.

[SnowGoose69]

6 minutes ago, mattb65 said:

Yes, combine that dry air with 40 kts of shear and the only natural expectation should be rapid weakening.

There are a number of people claiming the rapid weakening is implausible. I disagree. If the TC has extremely dry air from the surrounding environment ingested into the core combined with shear strong enough to decouple the LLC and MLC, then rapid weakening is exactly right and is the reason why it's shown by the most accurate hurricane models.

The environment leading to landfall would have to be completely different from what's being modeled for the storm to not rapidly weaken on approach. The tracks taking it toward Tampa aren't impacted as much by the shear in the Northern Gulf, and some that completely miss influence of the trough and stay further south and west in the Gulf might be able to maintain intensity.

With the storm all being so disorganized, it's very much a guessing game which track will end up being correct. My main point is that rapid weakening leading up to landfall if it follows the track currently modeled on the HWRF and GFS is not outlandish/wrong as some have indicated.

 

What the HWRF/HMON show is probably not realistic, only Patricia I believe due to an ERC weakened that much in that type of span...typically shear and dry air cannot take a storm down from 140kts to 40kts in 24-36 hours.  140kts to 85-90kts is more realistic but even that might be a stretch in that time window 

[Radtechwxman]

1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Recon is finally finding an actual surface center, but now it's struggling to produce core convection in a light shear environment.

Yea im very perplexed as to why convection isn't really taking off

[Radtechwxman]

9 minutes ago, mattb65 said:

Yes, combine that dry air with 40 kts of shear and the only natural expectation should be rapid weakening.

There are a number of people claiming the rapid weakening is implausible. I disagree. If the TC has extremely dry air from the surrounding environment ingested into the core combined with shear strong enough to decouple the LLC and MLC, then rapid weakening is exactly right and is the reason why it's shown by the most accurate hurricane models.

The environment leading to landfall would have to be completely different from what's being modeled for the storm to not rapidly weaken on approach. The tracks taking it toward Tampa aren't impacted as much by the shear in the Northern Gulf, and some that completely miss influence of the trough and stay further south and west in the Gulf might be able to maintain intensity.

With the storm all being so disorganized, it's very much a guessing game which track will end up being correct. My main point is that rapid weakening leading up to landfall if it follows the track currently modeled on the HWRF and GFS is not outlandish/wrong as some have indicated.

Those models also intensified Ian sooner and lead to that more west and north track. If this more disorganized system keeps up with later strengthening or RI down the road a track like Euro will be closer and the more south and east this tracks the less it will be impacted by that shear and dry air and probably a stronger landfall

[Prospero]

Here in Pinellas County FL (Tampa Bay) it looks like today and early tomorrow is the time for outside preparations to avoid doing it in the rain. I'll start in our yard today as we have a lot of bird feeders, decorations, and other potential projectiles to secure. Plants in pots will be put where they should be protected from higher winds.

[WinterWolf]

Is comical as you read through some posts saying how good he looked yesterday and Friday night, and how it should be a Hurricane soon, its gonna be off the to the races,  etc etc…. Bottom line is he’s deteriorated and is struggling.  The Euro is already more correct with the slow to develop idea.  Toss the current GFS idea hard.  Long way to go for Ian to become anything formidable in his current deteriorated state. 

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Is comical as you read through some posts saying how goo he looked yesterday and Friday night, and how it should be a Hurricane soon, its gonna be off the to the races,  etc etc…. Bottom line is he’s deteriorated and is struggling.  The Euro is already more correct with the slow to develop idea.  Toss the current GFS idea hard.  Long way to go for Ian to become anything formidable in his current deteriorated state. 

 

I saw someone point out on twitter that maybe a second and more less noticed change we've seen in recent years with TCs, maybe due to AGW, maybe not is that we've seen the insane RIs of storms become more common but we've also tended to see storms more often struggle for long periods in the TD to Cane phase in environments which otherwise seem favorable 

[NeffsvilleWx]

Was RI/significant strengthening ever forecast prior to today? I don't remember seeing that anywhere.

[MattPetrulli]

[SnoSki14]

I expect a major convective burst over center and rapid strengthening soon

 

[Hotair]

Here are the contenders and LF options.  East and South result in stronger storms due to less time in dry air 

Personally I would love to see Ian run into the Gulf and then LF as a TS somewhere near AL 

[WinterWolf]

12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

I saw someone point out on twitter that maybe a second and more less noticed change we've seen in recent years with TCs, maybe due to AGW, maybe not is that we've seen the insane RIs of storms become more common but we've also tended to see storms more often struggle for long periods in the TD to Cane phase in environments which otherwise seem favorable 

Agree that some systems of the last few yrs seem to struggle longer early on(doubt it has anything to do with any AGW just my opinion).   And this one is struggling too.  Long way to go to see where and what this does.   Modeling Will continue to  Flip flop -flip flop a while more. 

[Windspeed]

I haven't been participating much this weekend due to some personal issues. All I would contribute, and I am sure this has already been hammered home, regardless of how strong Ian gets and however much hype, the prognostic analysis of the synoptic pattern screams one thing: If Ian is a Panhandle hurricane, it will be ripped to shreds; where as if it hooks into the upper level flow and makes a beeline towards the western penninsula, it will be a stronger hurricane at landfall. How strong? It may still weaken, but the intensity should still have devastating impacts. I'm not even sure Ian will maintain hurricane intensity if it landfalls on the Panhandle. It's pretty cut and dry, no pun intended. So you want that solution, not the ECMWF solution.

[Superstorm93]

Early models are focused in the Panhandle once again 

[NorthHillsWx]

It’s become strange talking about a storm weakening into a northern gulf landfall after the last few years. This used to be the expectation 

[Silver Meteor]

8 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

 

Then of course, Charley moved further east and was much stronger. Just food for thought.

Thank you Floyd for the NHC track plots on Charley. The earlier forecast was remarkably accurate not only for the Florida Coast but also for the second landfall (I watched the eye pass directly overhead on Cape Fear, N.C.) The more updated forecast not only missed the Florida landfall but also had no second landfall at all! Charley is a good reminder that depending on trajectory a small error can rapidly magnify. 

While here let me thank you for the good work you do on your videos.

[StantonParkHoya]

3 minutes ago, Silver Meteor said:

Thank you Floyd for the NHC track plots on Charley. The earlier forecast was remarkably accurate not only for the Florida Coast but also for the second landfall (I watched the eye pass directly overhead on Cape Fear, N.C.) The more updated forecast not only missed the Florida landfall but also had no second landfall at all! Charley is a good reminder that depending on trajectory a small error can rapidly magnify. 

While here let me thank you for the good work you do on your videos.

18 years in modeling advancements