LibertyBell Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 2 hours ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: Btw....just an FYI....not sure if anyone is following Super Typhoon Noru but it just completed an explosive intensification process that saw it gain 85kts+ in the last 24 hours. Upper echelon event for intensification processes worldwide woah that's the other RI? I wonder if it'll make it to Cat 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 1 minute ago, turtlehurricane said: Can you please post link to where you get cmc runs this early. Or at least pic of new forecast https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2022092500&fh=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, CamSE-Wx said: 0z CMC a decent jump east from the 12z run Big jump east. Faster movement probably feels the effect of the trough more. Landfall at 12z was Destin to just N of Cedar key at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Starting to think this is coming to the coast of bama. Sucks, literally just moved here. I'm in a rental and don't have a generator so I guess I'll be towing the boat and valuables and getting out of here and praying for the best. Stay safe folks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 0Z UKMET significantly south of the last two full runs with it landfalling FL now well south of Tampa: MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 25.09.2022 TROPICAL STORM IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 76.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 25.09.2022 0 14.7N 76.9W 1006 28 1200UTC 25.09.2022 12 14.3N 79.4W 1004 25 0000UTC 26.09.2022 24 15.7N 80.6W 1001 31 1200UTC 26.09.2022 36 17.5N 82.2W 1000 33 0000UTC 27.09.2022 48 19.6N 83.0W 998 37 1200UTC 27.09.2022 60 21.8N 83.7W 995 36 0000UTC 28.09.2022 72 23.9N 83.9W 994 41 1200UTC 28.09.2022 84 25.4N 83.5W 992 49 0000UTC 29.09.2022 96 26.1N 83.2W 991 54 1200UTC 29.09.2022 108 26.6N 82.7W 991 49 0000UTC 30.09.2022 120 27.4N 82.0W 990 49 1200UTC 30.09.2022 132 28.6N 81.6W 990 43 0000UTC 01.10.2022 144 30.2N 81.0W 989 44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyes2theskies Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Just now, Rockem_sockem_connection said: Starting to think this is coming to the coast of bama. Sucks, literally just moved here. I'm in a rental and don't have a generator so I guess I'll be towing the boat and valuables and getting out of here and praying for the best. Stay safe folks Seems to me the models are shifting eastward. You should be in the clear. Curious to see what king euro does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Recon just made the first pass through the convection and found more garbage at the surface. They will have to look farther west. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 00z ICON Sarasota landfall then rides due N over TPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Looks like the GEFS is shifting east as well, tad quicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Recon just made the first pass through the convection and found more garbage at the surface. They will have to look farther west. "Center" looks just a smidge S of NHC's 14.7N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, eyes2theskies said: Seems to me the models are shifting eastward. You should be in the clear. Curious to see what king euro does. I'm a believer in the GFS so as much as I'd like to buy into the euro it's hard to. We really won't know until Monday I feel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: "Center" looks just a smidge S of NHC's 14.7N The center is still a mess and may reform, I'm still open anywhere MOB to TPA until the definite center is, well, definite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 GEFS east shift, still mainly west however 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 0Z UKMET landfalls near Port Charlotte vs near or just north of Tampa on runs of 12 and 24 hours ago. So, this is 75+ miles south of those runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Lots of lightning on the NW side. Looks like a band is forming there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Like people were saying before, the longer this stays weaker and disorganized the more likely it will track further south and east which also could also a stronger landfall versus the alternative quicker strengthening system that gets more west and north and weakens rapidly before landfall due to dry air and shear from incoming jet/trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 I recall with Charley the NHC had the EXACT final Florida landfall track nailed on an early forecast days before: But then the computer models kept insisting it would move further west or ride up the coastline. So they shifted the track west. The models were also insisting on fast weakening right before landfall: MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH SEEMS QUITE PROBABLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY. CHARLEY COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE BETWEEN THE 12 AND 24 HOURS TIME PERIODS...AND THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLER COASTAL WATERS AROUND THE TAMPA BAY AREA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY MODELS. Then of course, Charley moved further east and was much stronger. Just food for thought. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Curious what recon finds in the next pass. They found a circulation way to the SE of it with no convection so assuming its an old circulation or MLC that is severely decoupled. Looks ugly on satellite still, although evidence of convection firing towards end of the loop near the center near or slightly above 15 degrees, as placed by NHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 NHC is almost a full degree latitude off between last forecast current position and where recon is finding it. Not shown by models, but it could hit Central America and *never* reemerge in the Atlantic Basin the way it is looking. Assuming it is strong enough to feel the trough, Eastern Louisiana to the Panhandle seems more likely as it is already S of the NHC initial position. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Hmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 0z Euro straight into Tampa; crawling up Florida, only makes it to Gainesville in 24 hours. Looks like it’s heading to Atlanta. overall pretty similar to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 8 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: 0z Euro straight into Tampa; crawling up Florida, only makes it to Gainesville in 24 hours. Looks like it’s heading to Atlanta. overall pretty similar to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Honestly between 0z run yesterday of the Euro and 0z today, it’s maybe a 40 mile difference in track. Noise. Split the difference with GFS is right where NHC has it. Big bend to central GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Recon is finding the surface flow pretty similar to what it was early Saturday. There is a weak center at 14.6N, south of all the convection. Ian still has a lot of work to do before it can strengthen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Watching the satellite, I wouldn't be surprised if we see a reformation somewhere closer to the deep convection more around 15.5N/78.3W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 I hate to say it, but the EURO looks more accurate as far as Ian's initial organization. It keeps it as a 1000 mb storm over the next 24 hrs, and then strengthens rapidly once in the Gulf. Right now that seems more realistic given it's current state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Should be tropical storm train wreck instead of Ian because that's what it looks like. Lol. Tomorrow is the day NHC really expects Ian to take off but unless something majorly changes structurely I don't see it happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 5am cone from NHC, S FL currently out of the cone; this can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 ICON still east !!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 The EURO shows this becoming a major hurricane, but not right away. 24 hrs from now it's still getting it's act together. That seems much more likely given how disorganized it is right now. The GFS has this thing taking off immediately and being on it's way to Category 2 status 24 hrs from now. I'm skeptical of that. Thus, I'm leaning towards the EURO model, atleast short term. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now