Hurricane Ian

[GaWx]

The 12Z UKMET at 144 hours is ~200 miles S of the 12Z Euro 144 position, which puts it ~100-150 miles NE of Honduras moving NW. The UKMET is often on the left side of the model consensus mean:

 

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 13.9N  76.4W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 25.09.2022  120  14.2N  77.4W     1004            26
    0000UTC 26.09.2022  132  14.6N  79.0W     1003            27
    1200UTC 26.09.2022  144  15.6N  80.6W     1002            31

[bdgwx]

12Z UKMET is at 18N, 83W at hour 168.  For point of comparison ECMWF is at 22N, 83W so this puts the UKMET left of the ECMWF track.

 

[Brian5671]

26 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Fair. The meltdowns will be glorious when the core falls apart over Cuba and makes landfall over the swamps of Florida as an anemic cat 2. Or something like that

would be hard for it to "fall apart" over Cuba if it were moving from S to N-there's not much land to traverse.

[Weather Mike]

14 minutes ago, Normandy said:

With the size of the system that is the worst case scenario for Tampa.  The eyewall would be just offshore, but the surge would still pound the bay.  Also these recurving systems tend to slide east (at least from what ive seen tracking the last 20 years).

Yea I dont like that run. Too close for comfort. 

[CampergirlFL]

yes, if I'm in the Tampa/Clearwater/St Pete area I'm not liking this run, if it jogs slightly more east that area will be in the worst area (RFQ) of the cane.

I’m in eastern Hillsborough county, watching closely


.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

46 minutes ago, GaWx said:

A very dangerous track for Tampa on the 12Z Euro.

The one thing about a storm almost paralleling the Florida West Coast, remembering Charley, they'll need to have a larger than normal area in the H Warning (assuming the 9 and 10 day Euro verifies).   A near miss offshore, judging by the shape of Tampa Bay, would still be a major surge issue.  I'm feeling WC Florida or Panhandle, but enough GEFS get the Atlantic side or reach the Carolinas, they aren't in the clear by any means.

[Normandy]

While the details are still to be worked out, in my mind the big synoptic picture is somewhat clear.  Our Invest will miss the weakness carrying Fiona north and will slide west into the Caribbean under a transient ridge to the north.  Once it gets past Hispaniola it will begin to move WNW in response to a weakness developing ahead near the Yucatan.  Once near or past Jamaica it begins its recurve into the Eastern GOM.  Gonna be some long nights ahead.

[Brian5671]

10 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

The one thing about a storm almost paralleling the Florida West Coast, remembering Charley, they'll need to have a larger than normal area in the H Warning (assuming the 9 and 10 day Euro verifies).   A near miss offshore, judging by the shape of Tampa Bay, would still be a major surge issue.  I'm feeling WC Florida or Panhandle, but enough GEFS get the Atlantic side or reach the Carolinas, they aren't in the clear by any means.

yeah Charley went in much further S than expected, the friction with the land pulled him in near Port Charlotte, FL.

-

[Floydbuster]

7 minutes ago, Normandy said:

While the details are still to be worked out, in my mind the big synoptic picture is somewhat clear.  Our Invest will miss the weakness carrying Fiona north and will slide west into the Caribbean under a transient ridge to the north.  Once it gets past Hispaniola it will begin to move WNW in response to a weakness developing ahead near the Yucatan.  Once near or past Jamaica it begins its recurve into the Eastern GOM.  Gonna be some long nights ahead.

Agree. 

[StantonParkHoya]

14 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

The one thing about a storm almost paralleling the Florida West Coast, remembering Charley, they'll need to have a larger than normal area in the H Warning (assuming the 9 and 10 day Euro verifies).   A near miss offshore, judging by the shape of Tampa Bay, would still be a major surge issue.  I'm feeling WC Florida or Panhandle, but enough GEFS get the Atlantic side or reach the Carolinas, they aren't in the clear by any means.

Most GEFS members that cross over to the Atlantic side look to be heading OTS however

[Superstorm93]

Massive spread remains massive. We should start to see this decrease once the system actually gets into the Caribbean. 

 

[Superstorm93]

953 
NOUS42 KNHC 201850
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0250 PM EDT TUE 20 SEPTEMBER 2022
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2022
         TCPOD NUMBER.....22-117 CORRECTION

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. HURRICANE FIONA
       FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 43          FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
       A. 21/2330Z                   A. 22/1130Z,1730Z
       B. NOAA3 2307A FIONA          B. AFXXX 2407A FIONA
       C. 21/2100Z                   C. 22/0830Z
       D. 26.1N 71.2W                D. 28.3N 70.2W
       E. 21/2300Z TO 22/0230Z       E. 22/1100Z TO 22/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
       G. FIX                        G. FIX

    2. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING LESSER ANTILLES)
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 72          FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 73
       A. 22/0000Z                   A. 22/1130Z
       B. AFXXX 01GGA SURV           B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE (CORRECTED)
       C. 21/2230Z                   C. 22/1000Z
       D. 11.5N 61.5W                D. 12.5N 64.5W
       E. 21/2330Z TO 22/0330Z       E. 22/1100Z TO 22/1430Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
       G. SYSTEM SURVEY              G. FIX

    3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
       A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON FIONA WHILE IT REMAINS A THREAT.
       B. CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES ON SUSPECT SYSTEM IF IT DEVELOPS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

 

[NorthHillsWx]

Don’t discount the charley track on this one though this system might be much larger in size. The upper level environment and trough features in the SE US that affected charley are very similar to what is modeled on the Euro for this one. Too much time to get those specifics but that’s a plausible track and one the models have been hinting at. UK keeping this too low imo. Maybe a few weeks ago but there’s too much troughiness on the EC for this system to stay so suppressed and not get tugged north especially a large cyclone as depicted 

[Eskimo Joe]

Looks like OTS on the Euro after Flrodia, no?

[GaWx]

6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like OTS on the Euro after Flrodia, no?

No, it isn't OTS from FL.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like OTS on the Euro after Flrodia, no?

Way too far to worry

[Floydbuster]

This is in nearly the same spot as the wave that spawned Hurricane Gustav back in 2008.

[SnowGoose69]

Once again we will have a storm where everyone will butcher the name pronunciation, that much we know 

[TradeWinds]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

yeah Charley went in much further S than expected, the friction with the land pulled him in near Port Charlotte, FL.

-

Land had no bearing on the hurricane direction. There was an unseasonable trough that came in stronger than forecasted.

[Hoosier]

If you want to talk about something "pulled in" by land, Isidore going into the Yucatan in 2002 is the poster child.

[Superstorm93]

[jrips27]

 

[GaWx]

 Keep in mind that besides the last few GFS runs, all other credible operational models keep this very weak for several more days, well into the Caribbean. Also, note that the 18Z GFS is the weakest it has been at the LAs since the 0Z 9/19 run. So, even the GFS is signaling that these last few runs will likely turn out to be too aggressive that far east. Below is the map of TC origins during Sept 21-30 from 1851 through 2015 (I looked and this was also the case for 2016-21), which says that if it doesn't become a TD by the LAs (the likely case right now), it will almost certainly wait at least for another 800-1000 miles after which all bets are off on nondevelopment. I fully expect this to become a big deal by the W Caribbean, regardless:

 

[Floydbuster]

 

 

[AnthonyEC]

GFS splits the Yucatán uprights and bombs away 

[NavarreDon]

18Z GFS is further west on this run. At this point anywhere from LA down to the FL Keys should have an eyebrow raised.


.

[Amped]

Family good track agreement from the GFS and Euro for 10 days out.  GFS is quicker with development as usual.

Also looks like another weaker solutions stay further south deal on the ensembles.

[Superstorm93]

Seriously, which system would you peg for the greatest threat to the CONUS within the next 10 days?

Don't lie. 

[jrips27]

Well, going to be another bomb on the 0z GFS. Already down to 981mb at 120 hours

[Drummer]

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