wxeyeNH Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 630pm Tropical Tidbit discussion 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 Pretty good slug of dry air to nw of Ian right now. Curious if that's going to impact development despite otherwise very favorable conditions 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 You can see on the 18z ICON 500 heights it holds back the trough in the Ohio Valley as Ian comes off the tip of Cuba like the Euro. At 12z it was more progressive like GFS. Flip flop. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 9 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Pretty good slug of dry air to nw of Ian right now. Curious if that's going to impact development despite otherwise very favorable conditions This should restrict outflow and prevent the CDO from organizing in the short term. Definitely should act as a cap in the short term 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Sure is looking like it is consolidating. Pinwheel at those hot towers? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 51 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: This should restrict outflow and prevent the CDO from organizing in the short term. Definitely should act as a cap in the short term Never really thought dry air was ever supposed to be an issue though until closer to landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 18z Euro virtually the same as 12z Euro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Never really thought dry air was ever supposed to be an issue though until closer to landfall The global models did not have any but some of the hurricane and NOAA NHC in-house models had some dry air over the next 12-18hrs. However, even those runs didn't have the dry air significantly impacting Ian. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: The global models did not have any but some of the hurricane and NOAA NHC in-house models had some dry air over the next 12-18hrs. However, even those runs didn't have the dry air significantly impacting Ian. Would a slower development mean a more westerly track into the Gulf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Would a slower development mean a more westerly track into the Gulf? I thought Levi said stronger earlier was the GFS solution. Euro was stronger later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 7 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Would a slower development mean a more westerly track into the Gulf? The track ultimately is going to come down on Ian's intensity when it gets to Cuba. Weaker storms tend to go east where the stronger storms tend to drift west. In the meantime its honestly hard to tell what this is going to do for the long-term. It only takes 1 rapid or explosive intensification phase for Ian to become a powerful hurricane by the time it gets to Cuba. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastal front Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Ian is starting to tighten up and with d max should see some explosive rotating hot towers overnight to really set the stage for RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, coastal front said: Ian is starting to tighten up and with d max should see some explosive rotating hot towers overnight to really set the stage for RI. New convective burst rapidly going up near the center. This is likely the start of things to come over the next 24-36hrs so I completely agree with your analysis. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 This might be the formative stages of the CDO. Big convection going up. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, Normandy said: This might be the formative stages of the CDO. Big convection going up. Oh most definitely, very impressive how quick this is happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 00z with a tick east 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bugalou Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 We have a chance to see two record RI's within 24 hours of each other in 2 different basins if Ian can get cranking over that bathtub water south of Cuba tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 1 minute ago, bugalou said: We have a chance to see two record RI's within 24 hours of each other in 2 different basins if Ian can get cranking over that bathtub water south of Cuba tonight. Its going to be a stretch if it can rapidly get organized and establish the CDO. The main window for RI we were anticipating was tomorrow evening into Monday morning. If it can get going tonight it will be ahead of schedule on the intensity forecast and most likely lean on the high-end side of the forecast outlined by the NOAA NHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 11 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: 00z with a tick east Also a narrowing of the envelope from PC to Big Bend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 22 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: 00z with a tick east For those who don't realize it, the "UKM2" on here that goes to 168 is the 12Z UKMET (18Z goes out only about 60 hours I think). But I think that the "AVNI" is the 18Z GFS. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Also a narrowing of the envelope from PC to Big Bend. It all comes down to Cuba. What happens after it passes Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 I don't know if anyone posted it, but the 12Z JMA landfalls near Tampa at 120. So, that is similar to the Euro and UKMET at 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jtm12180 Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Levi has been saying for two days that it wasn’t going to be until Ian was in line with Jamaica’s longitude for it to start to get its act together. looking like the guy was 100% spot on… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Btw....just an FYI....not sure if anyone is following Super Typhoon Noru but it just completed an explosive intensification process that saw it gain 85kts+ in the last 24 hours. Upper echelon event for intensification processes worldwide 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Imo convection not looking so hot with Ian right now. Obviously that can change in a hurry. There is that one hot tower to the ne but that's about it for deep cold cloud tops. Swirl is becoming more apparent though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said: That’s the 12z… ends up in eastern TN Nah that's 18z look at bottom right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: Nah that's 18z look at bottom right Ah my bad. Looks about same position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 This is going to be a Tampa Hurricane. The only question is, how strong. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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