Hurricane Ian

[ROOSTA]

As much as my enthusiasm would like to see a direct hit I'm brought back to reality. With each model run I'm torn between these opposing feelings.
Reality is winning out. Going days without power is not fun, lives effected not as an inconvenience but altered for weeks trying to recover. Early analysis, in regard to the models. West trends appear legit or could be, maybe a false signal. A compromise between EU and the GFS will result in a scrapper. Still way to early.
Give it time grasshopper. Will track influence intensity? OR WILL Intensity influence track?
Probably a little of both, all dependent on the UL's. Really strong Hurricanes can at times create their own surrounding environment.
Still early in the game to declare anything definitive.

[Hoosier]

30 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

This run barely makes it to the coast before curving back north along the coast.  If it trends any farther west it will remain over water, like other models are showing, and weaken.

Barring a dramatic center relocation farther north/east, we are probably getting close to ruling out a far sw FL landfall.

[MANDA]

10m wind gust swath (usually overdone) is impressive.  Even if you chop it by 10-15% it is still impressive and on that track verbatim (likely some adjustments will be made on future model runs) would send impressive surge into Tampa Bay.  Will see what EPS offers in terms of track over the next 90 min or so.  Additional soundings going into the models over the next many cycles should start to tighten up the track.  Especially by tomorrow evening once a cohesive vortex has become established.

[Hotair]

For what it’s worth JMA the Japanese Hurricane model also agrees with euro for now and a TB LF

[MANDA]

I might add I don't see anything on any global right now that makes the eastern trof deep enough to fully grab and slingshot Ian NNE or NE after landfall.  Believe it will slow and meander somewhere over the southeast as huge high pressure builds north.

[GaWx]

8 minutes ago, Hotair said:

For what it’s worth JMA the Japanese Hurricane model also agrees with euro for now and a TB LF

UKMET is also near Tampa

[nwohweather]

48 minutes ago, Hotair said:

Folks. Keep in mind that Euro handles convection differently from GFS   Once these models are fed a stable dominant center then we can start to take them more seriously

GFS and Euro

 

Not a great situation at all. 4-5 days from a possible major hurricane landfall and we don’t know if it’s going to head towards Pensacola or Tampa. Realistically if the Euro track wins out, it won’t be confirmed until we’re inside of 84 hours. Not much time at all

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, MANDA said:

I might add I don't see anything on any global right now that makes the eastern trof deep enough to fully grab and slingshot Ian NNE or NE after landfall.  Believe it will slow and meander somewhere over the southeast as huge high pressure builds north.

Quite possible but we are still a long time away. 

[Hotair]

Recon is finding lows at both 13N and 14.5N. Convection is north of that. At some point in the next 24 hours one of those should dominate.  If the southern one wins out then we are looking at potentially a weaker storm on a more  westerly track into the Golf.  If the more northern low wins it means the storm can get more robust and have an easterly bend bringing it well into the Florida west coast. 
 

these two scenarios kind of reflect the GFS vs Euro solutions playing out 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[Weather Mike]

15 minutes ago, Hotair said:

Recon is finding lows at both 13N and 14.5N. Convection is north of that. At some point in the next 24 hours one of those should dominate.  If the southern one wins out then we are looking at potentially a weaker storm on a more  westerly track into the Golf.  If the more northern low wins it means the storm can get more robust and have an easterly bend bringing it well into the Florida west coast. 
 

these two scenarios kind of reflect the GFS vs Euro solutions playing out 

Hopefully tomorrow we can finally establish a low and the models and come to a better agreement. I am sure like you said they are handling the lows differently and possibly the interaction with that trough. 

[MANDA]

Notable shift to the left (west) on latest 18Z Tropical Models.  Also intensity is boosted from 12Z as well.  Based on this would fully expect 5pm TPC advisory track to be shifted NW from that of 11am even if only by a bit.  EURO seems to be marking the eastward edge of track guidance as of now.

[Hotair]

11 minutes ago, Weather Mike said:

Hopefully tomorrow we can finally establish a low and the models and come to a better agreement. I am sure like you said they are handling the lows differently and possibly the interaction with that trough. 

Yea.  Thankfully we have a slew of recon flights scheduled to probe things over the next few days.  One is in the storm as I type this.

[hawkeye_wx]

Recon finding another wind shift wnw of the first one.  Maybe it is the same one.

[GaWx]

12Z EPS sizable W shift vs 6Z with densest concentration near and west of Tampa

[StantonParkHoya]

notable that only one GEFS member goes south of Tampa with a very large contingent into AL or even LA/MS

[madwx]

3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Recon finding another wind shift wnw of the first one.

That’s likely to be the dominant one. Should see it fully consolidate by 6z tonight 

[Hotair]

 intensity models for Ian now have many members reaching CAT 3 and even CAT 4 winds.  Wherever this ends up the storm surge could be devastating 

 

[Amped]

5 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Recon finding another wind shift wnw of the first one.  Maybe it is the same one.

Wouldn't be shocked if the center reformed under that northern blob.  They are generally better at reforming centers than southern blobs and with the weak messy structure the center is very up for grabs right now.

[wxeyeNH]

Looking at the visible satellite picture at 4pm the convection on the north side of the system seems to be exploding.  I don't know how much that means but I would think it would help form a center towards that direction vs the further south eddie's.  One thing seems assured.  This will not be a galloping east coast storm with so much high pressure up here.

[Hotair]

According to @MeteoAtlas

Recon has finally investigated Ian’s mid-level centre and has found that a new LLC has been drilled down there. Ian can now stack itself in a nuclear environment and start strengthening and organising. Could be in for some extremely fast intensification rates.

 

 

 

[wxeyeNH]

2 minutes ago, Amped said:

Wouldn't be shocked if the center reformed under that northern blob.  They are generally better at reforming centers than southern blobs and with the weak messy structure the center is very up for grabs right now.

Great minds think alike as I just posted this.

[Weather Mike]

7 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

notable that only one GEFS member goes south of Tampa with a very large contingent into AL or even LA/MS

Curious if most of the models that take it into the panhandle are basing the low further south? Or maybe there is more to it then that ? 
I don’t want it in Tampa trust me but I’m not closing the door on the possibility these models swing the other way over the next day or two to correct themselves once a low has been established and that trough has been better sampled. 

[Intensewind002]

I’ve been thinking that this storm could have a lifecycle similar to 2002’s Hurricane Lili, but with a landfall a bit further east, they both occurred during the same time period too

 

[cptcatz]

15 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Recon finding another wind shift wnw of the first one.

 

[hlcater]

 

[Hotair]

Northern blob wining the LLC battle should push models to start prodding the storm East vs West. I would expect GFS will start reflecting this more once it is seeded with todays recon data 

edit: as far as 5 pm track cone guidance is concerned, if I were to play NHC for a moment, I’d lean toward leaving the cone pretty much where it was at 2 pm.  

[bdgwx]

The big 3 are in. It is very difficult to make out because of the large spread but it looks like the intersection of the 3 HR120 1σ rings keeps Ian well off the coast at around maybe 25.2N, 86W. This appears to be well left of the 2p EDT OFCL track though still in the cone. 

[Normandy]

I'm still thinking SW / SE FL (Maybe near or just south of Tampa).  Usually when a strong trough and strong hurricane get this close to one another the hurricane turns NE.  That coupled with the N center consolidation, not seeing the west solutions panning out.  That's the beauty of the tropics though, we simply have to wait and see.

[tim123]

Farther west and stronger is way to go i think.