hawkeye_wx Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 The GFS slows Ian to a crawl out over the gulf. By the time it finally moves inland, north of Tampa, there is not much left of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 5 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: 00z GFS further east and weaker I wouldn’t necessarily say further east, it’s actually more west but a much more drastic turn into north Tampa than elongated into the big bend area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 Lol. Would be ultimate troll after a lackluster season and all the hurricane chasers in US dying for an intercept. How likely is this stalling scenario though? Any other models showing it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 7 minutes ago, CamSE-Wx said: I wouldn’t necessarily say further east, it’s actually more west but a much more drastic turn into north Tampa than elongated into the big bend area Didn’t realize Tampa city limits are 100 miles north of town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 Weather has a super sense of irony…don’t be surprised if this thing fails to deliver anything. Wound t be the first time., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 Just now, WinterWolf said: Weather has a super sense of irony…don’t be surprised if this thing fails to deliver anything. Wound t be the first time., I've never seen a major cane totally fall to pieces in the Gulf unless it was approaching the far northern coast like Opal for example and that may have been more due to an ERC....I don't buy the massive weakening at all indicated by some of the globals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 Lol. Would be ultimate troll after a lackluster season and all the hurricane chasers in US dying for an intercept. How likely is this stalling scenario though? Any other models showing it? latest Icon stalled him inland, over 2 feet of rain in OrlandoSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 22 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I've never seen a major cane totally fall to pieces in the Gulf unless it was approaching the far northern coast like Opal for example and that may have been more due to an ERC....I don't buy the massive weakening at all indicated by some of the globals Hmmm..I guess we’ll see. Katrina weekend significantly…the thing was…it was a Monster cat 5, and weekend to a strong cat 3 on approach. Good thing that happened or N.O. wouldn’t exist. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 NHC doesn't seem to be buying the stall for now based on their track intervals and time stamps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 Shift west on 00z GEFS, but quite a wide spread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 34 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: latest Icon stalled him inland, over 2 feet of rain in Orlando Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Through what hr? I'm seeing 1.4" through hr 192 (Thurs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: I've never seen a major cane totally fall to pieces in the Gulf unless it was approaching the far northern coast like Opal for example and that may have been more due to an ERC....I don't buy the massive weakening at all indicated by some of the globals The environment depicted does not support significant weakening as depicted. I could understand if there was shear but GFS looks to have no shear there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 NWS Point and Click now says "Hurricane Conditions Possible" for central Brevard on Wednesday. Late yesterday, it said TS conditions. Seems like the 02:00 track update shifted things slightly west. 2 AM EDT Advisory: Quote ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 200 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022 ...IAN MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EARLY MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 72.9W ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in western and central Cuba should monitor the progress of Ian. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 72.9 West. Ian is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through early Sunday. A turn toward the northwest is forecast late Sunday, followed by a north-northwestward turn by late Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is forecast to move across the central Caribbean Sea today, pass southwest of Jamaica on Sunday, and pass near or over the Cayman Islands Sunday night and early Monday. Ian will then approach western Cuba on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Ian is expected to become a hurricane Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by early Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica on Sunday. RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall: Southern Haiti and Southern Dominican Republic: 2 to 4 inches, with local maximum up to 6 inches Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 8 inches, with local maximum up to 12 inches Western to central Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maximum up to 14 inches These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Florida Keys and South Florida: Heavy rains could begin as early as Monday. Limited flash and urban flooding is possible with this rainfall. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday. Localized coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Jamaica in areas of onshore winds on Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Ian will begin affecting Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba over the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown NNNN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 So far the 00z Euro looks a little slower/possibly west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: So far the 00z Euro looks a little slower/possibly west. Yeah landfall a bit further NW compared to 12z. Also like you said about 6-12 hours slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: So far the 00z Euro looks a little slower/possibly west. Yes, however its still underestimating the environment Ian will be in. Does intensify at landfall though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 Really crawling over Florida. Big rainmaker on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, jrips27 said: Really crawling over Florida. Big rainmaker on this run. Don't want to get too far ahead, but maybe Charley-esque impacts in interior FL assuming it doesn't pull a rot away in the Gulf scenario. Even if weaker than Charley at landfall, it looks to be a larger storm which would help offset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Looking to the skies Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 We live in Hazlehurst Georgia now. We desperately need the rain Ian could bring. My pond is about 10’ below the level it was last year. It looks bad. I do not need 50-70mph winds with the pines on my property. So I need 6-8” of rain , that would help tremendously, but I don’t need trees on my trailer or sheds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 Through what hr? I'm seeing 1.4" through hr 192 (Thurs).ICON only goes to hr180Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 5am track 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 6 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: I've never seen a major cane totally fall to pieces in the Gulf unless it was approaching the far northern coast like Opal for example and that may have been more due to an ERC....I don't buy the massive weakening at all indicated by some of the globals We shall see but the pattern lately has had a lot of dry air in the eastern states, but I think it's a bit early to determine that right now. Now with the set up I would think there would be a SSW flow of a fairly most airm mass. Looks like it could be a similar set up with Fiona to the east moving NNE into Nova Scotia except this is further west then move up the Piedmont into the Norhtern Mid Atlantic. I see some models are out in Ohio Valley think that may be too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 Late in the period, the guidance indicates the storm will begin to recurve toward Florida. As mentioned before, the track models are in general agreement with this scenario, however there is a large amount of cross-track spread at 72 hours and beyond. In fact, the east-west spread in the guidance at 96 hours is about 180 n mi, with the CTCI and ECMWF along the eastern side of the envelope, and the GFS, HWRF, and GFS ensemble mean along the western side. The overall guidance envelope has shifted slightly westward this cycle, and the NHC track has been nudged in that direction and lies just east of the various consensus aids. Given the spread in the guidance, and the still shifting dynamical models, additional adjustments to the track forecast may be needed in subsequent advisories. Users are reminded that the long-term average NHC 4- and 5-day track errors are around 150 and 200 n mi, respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 24 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: We shall see but the pattern lately has had a lot of dry air in the eastern states, but I think it's a bit early to determine that right now. Now with the set up I would think there would be a SSW flow of a fairly most airm mass. Looks like it could be a similar set up with Fiona to the east moving NNE into Nova Scotia except this is further west then move up the Piedmont into the Norhtern Mid Atlantic. I see some models are out in Ohio Valley think that may be too far west. The only chance Ian has is to turn hard NE south of Tampa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, ldub23 said: The only chance Ian has is to turn hard NE south of Tampa. I’m sorry, not understanding. Only chance for what? Lf as a hurricane? Even if winds are not catastrophic, the potential for flooding damage seems significant if it makes it anywhere near Tampa, No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 Just fyi for those who are visiting or plan on flying out of the area ahead of Ian Tampa, Clearwater and Sarasota airports may discontinue service as early as Monday afternoon. Plan accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 Recon data showing the start of circulation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 Seems like eveything shift west New tropicals models are also west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Seems like eveything shift west New tropicals models are also west Which for now, makes it more dangerous for Tampa Bay unfortunately 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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