Hurricane Ian

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Popo's place in Galveston was storm surged/destroyed, but Galveston houses on stilts have motorized storm shutters, and only a few, right on the beach, actually collapsed.  All been untouched 14 years.  Coastal Florida should be on stilts and motorized storm shutters.

 

 

[MattPetrulli]

 

[Prismshine Productions]

Anyone post the latest intensity model guidance yet? Here it is 

No C5, good to see

Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

With all that  cold dry  air to its  north and west in the GOM if  it  goes as far west as the GFS says its going to die  out  awful fast. If  it  landfalls anywhere  north  of Tampa it will be rapidly  weakening and those  kind  of storms probably  wont  be too wet as well. I dont see this as a mega disaster at all, at  least  based  on the GFS. Its  possible  it  gets trapped  in the GOM and  just  dies.

Euro is probably right, Carolinas/Virginia happening, and then you'll feel bad for being such a Debbie Downer.  Your neighbors in the VA Capes won't be happy, but you might get your TS/HU you were sure wouldn't happen.

[Prospero]

28 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Can we please cut the banter?

After all this time, we all bored to death and finally something starts to happen and "banter" is too much as we wake up when the thing doesn't even have a name yet?

OK

Party poopers...

 

[MattPetrulli]

Now have Tropical Storm Ian according to best track or whatever that thingy is called

35 knt 1005 MB

[Hotair]

2 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Now have Tropical Storm Ian according to best track or whatever that thingy is called

35 knt 1005 MB

Roger that. Ian confirmed. Someone opening a new thread? 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Just now, Hotair said:

Roger that. Ian confirmed. Someone opening a new thread? 

Original Poster can rename thread.

[Prismshine Productions]

We have Ian

Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

[Rjay]

Just wait for the NHC

[Eskimo Joe]

Looks like the hurricane models have a second landfall in the Carolinas then bend Ian back into the Mid Altantic.

[cptcatz]

Euro saying Miami gets hits, GFS saying Tallahassee gets hit.  What a range.

[Hotair]

 

SEVEN recon flights are scheduled between tomorrow and Sunday morning with more scheduled for Sunday afternoon and evening. 2 high altitude missions, 2 tail radar missions and 3 additional fix flights.
 

The NHC probably has surplus budget this year that has gone unused so they are going to be providing great coverage of this storm. 

[Prospero]

9 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Euro saying Miami gets hits, GFS saying Tallahassee gets hit.  What a range.

Puts TB right in the middle.

But I'm still trained from 2021 to expect it to nail western Louisiana.

[Hotair]

Im turning in.  Time for some meds that make me drowsy.   Here is the latest sat presentation as of approx 9:30 

[Prospero]

Here we go:

City of Gulfport

2401 53rd Street South

Gulfport, FL 33707  

(727) 893-1000

www.mygulfport.us

#2 For Immediate Release: Friday, September 23, 2022

 

THE CITY OF GULFPORT IS CURRENTLY MONITORING THE TRACK OF

TROPICAL DEPRESSION #9

Sandbags will be available starting tomorrow at 10am.

[MattPetrulli]

Curious if new flare up is indicative of a LLC reformation to the SW

[Prospero]

21 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Curious if new flare up is indicative of a LLC reformation to the SW

21 minutes later it still looks like it, but hard to find a circulation. Would be good for everyone if it goes west and takes on shear in the open Gulf.

[yoda]

Tropical Storm Ian Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022

...TROPICAL STORM IAN FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EARLY 
MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 72.0W
ABOUT 385 MI...625 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in western and central Cuba should monitor the progress
of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products 
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was
located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 72.0 West.  Ian is 
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A westward 
or west-northwestward motion is expected through early Sunday.  A 
turn toward the northwest is forecast late Sunday, followed by a 
north-northwestward turn by late Monday.  On the forecast track, the
center of Ian is forecast to move across the central Caribbean Sea 
through Saturday, pass southwest of Jamaica on Sunday, and pass 
near or over the Cayman Islands Sunday night and early Monday.  Ian 
will then approach western Cuba on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Ian is 
expected to become a hurricane Sunday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

 

[yoda]

Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022

The system remains sheared from the northeast, with the low-level 
circulation evident a bit to the east of the deep convection.  
Unfortunately, we didn't have the benefit of a reconnaissance 
aircraft this evening to sample the winds, but satellite estimates 
did increase a bit.  TAFB and SAB provided Dvorak classifications 
of T2.0/30 kt and T3.0/45 kt, respectively, while the objective 
UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON estimates are at tropical storm intensity.  
Based on a blend of these data, the depression is upgraded to 
Tropical Storm Ian with 35-kt winds.

Ian's center appears to have been moving more slowly this evening, 
and the initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 285/10 
kt.  The track guidance is in good agreement that Ian should turn 
westward during the next 12-24 hours while located to the south of 
a small mid-level anticyclone centered just north of Hispaniola.  
After 24 hours, Ian is expected to begin recurving around the 
western side of this high, turning northwestward over the 
northwestern Caribbean Sea, and then northward while crossing Cuba 
into the Gulf of Mexico and toward Florida.  The track models 
agree on this general scenario, and the guidance envelope is 
flanked by the major global models, with the ECMWF taking a route 
over South Florida and the GFS farther west, remaining over the 
eastern Gulf of Mexico by day 5.  The new NHC forecast lies between 
these two scenarios and is not much different from the previous 
forecast.  The GFS and ECMWF ensembles both show a similar amount 
of spread as the deterministic guidance, but both ensemble means 
are close to the multi-model consensus aids, which helps to give 
more credence to the position of the official forecast.

The moderate deep-layer shear affecting Ian is forecast to decrease 
during the next 6 to 12 hours, and the cyclone will be moving over 
the very warm waters of the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea, 
where sea surface temperatures are between 29 and 31 degrees 
Celsius.  Intensification is expected to be gradual during the next 
36 hours while Ian gets better organized in a lower-shear 
environment, but after that time, conditions will be conducive for 
faster strengthening.  In fact, the NHC intensity forecast 
explicitly calls for rapid intensification (RI) between days 2 and 
3 while Ian is moving over the northwestern Caribbean Sea toward 
western Cuba.  It's worth nothing too that the RI indices from 
SHIPS are showing a 2-in-3 chance of a 65-kt increase in winds 
during the next 3 days, and if that transpires, Ian could be 
stronger than what's shown in the official forecast.  The storm is 
not expected to be over Cuba long enough to cause much weakening, 
and the forecast still shows Ian as a major hurricane over the 
eastern Gulf of Mexico while approaching the west coast of Florida.


Key Messages:

1.  Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall and instances of 
flash flooding and possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain, 
particularly over Jamaica and Cuba.

2.  Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by 
early Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late 
Sunday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in Jamaica on 
Sunday.

3.  Early next week, Ian is forecast to move near or over western 
Cuba as a strengthening hurricane and then approach the Florida 
peninsula at or near major hurricane strength, with the potential 
for significant impacts from storm surge, hurricane-force winds, 
and heavy rainfall.  While it is too soon to determine the
exact magnitude and location of these impacts, residents in Cuba,
the Florida Keys, and the Florida peninsula should ensure they have
their hurricane plan in place and closely monitor forecast updates
through the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 14.8N  72.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 14.7N  73.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 15.1N  76.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 16.1N  78.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 17.6N  80.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  26/1200Z 19.3N  81.5W   75 KT  85 MPH...NEAR GRAND CAYMAN
 72H  27/0000Z 21.2N  82.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  28/0000Z 24.9N  83.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  29/0000Z 28.0N  82.0W   95 KT 110 MPH...OVER FLORIDA

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Prospero]

9 has a name.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/024746.shtml?cone#contents

[yoda]

 

[hawkeye_wx]

Hmm... I think it's a bit of a stretch to call this a tropical storm.

[Prospero]

NHC has been pretty good five days out the past years. Ian is still in flux, but Tampa Bay has not been in this deep in the forecast for quite a while.

 

[TradeWinds]

4 minutes ago, Prospero said:

NHC has been pretty good five days out the past years. Ian is still in flux, but Tampa Bay has not been in this deep in the forecast for quite a while.

 

This forecast track is an I-4 special

[Tatamy]

1 hour ago, Hotair said:

 

SEVEN recon flights are scheduled between tomorrow and Sunday morning with more scheduled for Sunday afternoon and evening. 2 high altitude missions, 2 tail radar missions and 3 additional fix flights.
 

The NHC probably has surplus budget this year that has gone unused so they are going to be providing great coverage of this storm. 

Must be as recon was flying around Sable Island a little earlier.

[MJO812]

Icon

[hawkeye_wx]

The ICON moves Ian into sw Florida and stalls it.

[Floydbuster]

 

[MattPetrulli]

00z GFS further east and weaker