Hurricane Ian

[LeesburgWx]

1 minute ago, Prospero said:

Ultimate Hype Memory:

The morning Charlie was bee-lining for Tampa Bay in 2004, direct line in its target and I was in Sun City Center! Nobody expected a hard right turn (that I was aware of). Many friends left here and the beaches scrambling in traffic to get to Orlando where they were pummeled by Charlie around midnight worse than we saw around here. It was a treat for us as it passed just South of where I was during daylight so I could experience it outside watching tiles blow off roofs and shutters flying down the street like paper trash. We kept power until 3:00 am or so and it was only out a few hours. We were spared, but close enough it is a something I'll never forget.

Yeah, that was something to see the hard right turn and it’s crazy how everyone went to Orlando where they were actually hit quite hard. Wasn’t Disney closed too?

[Prospero]

3 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

Along with an acknowledgement of increased track uncertainty late in the forecast period.

In the Tampa Bay area, we have become a little too casual. But when you spend time and money to batten down the hatches over and over every year to be spared totally by yet another scary storm and still have some more work to do to unbatten everything after it passes, we get careless. And that is after having to put out a lot of money for repairs and cleanup after a storm does come too close feeling grateful we did whatever we did to batten down the hatches. Maybe 5 years is the threshold where we get lazy.

If NHC is even as good as 2021 I am concerned a little.

 

[Dbullsfan22]

The size of the cone just goes to show how much uncertainty there is with this storm. Will it hit somewhere in Florida, probably but way too early to know where. 

[JP11283]

23 minutes ago, Prospero said:

In the Tampa Bay area, we have become a little too casual. But when you spend time and money to batten down the hatches over and over every year to be spared totally by yet another scary storm and still have some more work to do to unbatten everything after it passes, we get careless. And that is after having to put out a lot of money for repairs and cleanup after a storm does come too close feeling grateful we did whatever we did to batten down the hatches. Maybe 5 years is the threshold where we get lazy.

If NHC is even as good as 2021 I am concerned a little.

 

I think it's really easy for us to become complacent in this part of the state. I've spent almost all of my 38 years within an hour of Tampa and Irma was the first hurricane I experienced. I think a lot of people have the "I'll believe it when I see it" mentality when it comes to a major hurricane making landfall in the area.

[Tezeta]

30 minutes ago, Dbullsfan22 said:

The size of the cone just goes to show how much uncertainty there is with this storm. Will it hit somewhere in Florida, probably but way too early to know where. 

The cone is always the same size, lil homie

[Weather Mike]

36 minutes ago, Prospero said:

In the Tampa Bay area, we have become a little too casual. But when you spend time and money to batten down the hatches over and over every year to be spared totally by yet another scary storm and still have some more work to do to unbatten everything after it passes, we get careless. And that is after having to put out a lot of money for repairs and cleanup after a storm does come too close feeling grateful we did whatever we did to batten down the hatches. Maybe 5 years is the threshold where we get lazy.

If NHC is even as good as 2021 I am concerned a little.

 

What caused Charlie to change paths and head in earlier ? Is the environment around for a similar possibility with this TD as it head up the west coast of FL as a Hurricane ? 

[Prospero]

12 minutes ago, JP11283 said:

I think it's really easy for us to become complacent in this part of the state. I've spent almost all of my 38 years within an hour of Tampa and Irma was the first hurricane I experienced. I think a lot of people have the "I'll believe it when I see it" mentality when it comes to a major hurricane making landfall in the area.

My first wife's famous quote in the hills of Virginia during my 1978 Senior HS adventure, "I have not got pregnant yet."

[TradeWinds]

3 minutes ago, Weather Mike said:

What caused Charlie to change paths and head in earlier ? Is the environment around for a similar possibility with this TD as it head up the west coast of FL as a Hurricane ? 

Charlie turned quicker because the trough came in stronger than forecasted. It was an unseasonably strong trough. 

[cptcatz]

9 minutes ago, Tezeta said:

The cone is always the same size, lil homie

No it's not, lil homie.

[Witness Protection Program]

 

[Dbullsfan22]

10 minutes ago, Tezeta said:

The cone is always the same size, lil homie

I’m referring to the width, some storms have tighter likely range of outcomes. This one still spans the entire state almost 

[mob1]

1 minute ago, cptcatz said:

No it's not, lil homie.

It is, it's meant to convey the average error historically by the NHC (so it's a moving average, and not at all based on how confident they are with the current forecast). Based on the speed and trajectory of a storm, it can sometimes look like it's a different spread, but it's always the same. 

[Tezeta]

1 minute ago, cptcatz said:

No it's not, lil homie.

What do you mean? It’s not dynamic and is static, based upon track error for the previous 5 years. Every cone this year will be the same, lil homie. 
 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml

[Prospero]

6 minutes ago, TradeWinds said:

Charlie turned quicker because the trough came in stronger than forecasted. It was an unseasonably strong trough. 

AmericanMX may have been active that day but I did not know of it. I signed up for a Florida storm forum a month or so later. On TV and internet news channels, downtown Tampa was looking at a 30 ft storm surge for several exciting hours. The hard turn shocked everyone.

[ROOSTA]

I'm not liking the "stall" that the models are starting to come an agreement on.
Talk about prolific rainfall not measured in inches but in feet. Surge if not taken seriously in the TB area and for those who don't heed evac warning are going to be in deep doo-doo.
And for those who want to chase, and it be your first I highly recommend YOU DON'T.

*Before someone jumps on me and writes something derogatory*. 
Models as of 18z the 23rd.

[MJO812]

Gfs is way stronger 

[Dbullsfan22]

Interesting, reason I love this place learn something new all the time. Thank you 

[CamSE-Wx]

18z GFS coming in stronger and southwest through 114. Down to 932 from from 953 on the 12z

[Weather Mike]

2 minutes ago, CamSE-Wx said:

18z GFS coming in stronger and southwest through 114. Down to 932 from from 953 on the 12z

starting to weaken slightly as it heads due north just west of Tampa 

[StantonParkHoya]

1 minute ago, Weather Mike said:

starting to weaken slightly as it heads due north just west of Tampa 

If by just west, you mean 150 miles west. It’s noticeably west of 12z.

[Prismshine Productions]

18z is called Happy Hour for a reason...

Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

[Weather Mike]

4 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

If by just west, you mean 150 miles west. It’s noticeably west of 12z.

yes its more west then 12z. I was not making a refence as it was just off the coast. But more so its position being west of Tampa. 

 

Looks like a Tallahassee special 

[Prospero]

Well, I am ready to feel like a ping pong ball for the next few days. The GFS is better than what the NHC says.

 

 

[Weather Mike]

2 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Well, I am ready to feel like a ping pong ball for the next few days. The GFS is better than what the NHC says.

 

 

For the sake of you and I I just hope it does not turn out to be a landfall between the GFS and Euro run as we will not be in a good position with some bad storm surge. 

[MattPetrulli]

East shift on 18z GEFS

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

1 hour ago, Prospero said:

Ultimate Hype Memory:

The morning Charlie was bee-lining for Tampa Bay in 2004, direct line in its target and I was in Sun City Center! Nobody expected a hard right turn (that I was aware of). Many friends left here and the beaches scrambling in traffic to get to Orlando where they were pummeled by Charlie around midnight worse than we saw around here. It was a treat for us as it passed just South of where I was during daylight so I could experience it outside watching tiles blow off roofs and shutters flying down the street like paper trash. We kept power until 3:00 am or so and it was only out a few hours. We were spared, but close enough it is a something I'll never forget.

I was a Bastardi subscriber then, he is a hype machine, but he talked about a system paralleling the coast being drawn inland.  He though LF would be S of TPA.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Reed Timmer hyping, and he could be correct, future Ian second landfall and stalling inland NC or VA, a "mega-disaster'. epic flood of all time.   His words.   'Mega-disaster'. He had COVID, and maybe a little drunk.  He is chasing in Florida.  See his YouTube video.

 

He blames his altered state on the anti-virals.

[Iceresistance]

This storm has the potential to become an absolute monster, wind shear is already relaxing and the structure is improving on satellite.

 

I find it wild that it formed under 30-40 knots of Wind Shear, which means that this system is determined to become a BEAST!

@Akeem the African Dream and all Florida members, please keep a very close eye on this. Could have the strongest landfall in that part of the state since Irma 2017.

[ldub23]

7 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Reed Timmer hyping, and he could be correct, future Ian second landfall and stalling inland NC or VA, a "mega-disaster'. epic flood of all time.   His words.   'Mega-disaster'. He had COVID, and maybe a little drunk.  He is chasing in Florida.  See his YouTube video.

 

He blames his altered state on the anti-virals.

With all that  cold dry  air to its  north and west in the GOM if  it  goes as far west as the GFS says its going to die  out  awful fast. If  it  landfalls anywhere  north  of Tampa it will be rapidly  weakening and those  kind  of storms probably  wont  be too wet as well. I dont see this as a mega disaster at all, at  least  based  on the GFS. Its  possible  it  gets trapped  in the GOM and  just  dies.

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

With all that  cold dry  air to its  north and west in the GOM if  it  goes as far west as the GFS says its going to die  out  awful fast. If  it  landfalls anywhere  north  of Tampa it will be rapidly  weakening and those  kind  of storms probably  wont  be too wet as well. I dont see this as a mega disaster at all, at  least  based  on the GFS. Its  possible  it  gets trapped  in the GOM and  just  dies.

The GFS forecast will be about as right as you've been for this season.