jrips27 Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 120 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Saturday, south of Jamaica, is when the latest Euro begins to ramp up the cyclone. I foresee a lot of low-sleep nights coming up next week as I have to stay awake for one more recon pass or model run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 12z HWRF and HMON keep this weak through 126 hours. Not too shocked considering we don't have a well-defined circulation to work with here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Might be a bit east of the 0z 144 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 The Euro has a weak upper low digging down into the far nw Caribbean, out ahead of this system. As the system begins to develop and gain height it quickly turns northwestward as it feels the upper low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Saturday, south of Jamaica, is when the latest Euro begins to ramp up the cyclone. I foresee a lot of low-sleep nights coming up next week as I have to stay awake for one more recon pass or model run. Yeah, it's wild how much the hype train has ramped up being 10+ days from a US landfall. I have a feeling the latest Euro won't help either... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Yeah, it's wild how much the hype train has ramped up being 10+ days from a US landfall. I have a feeling the latest Euro won't help either... You must be new here. 6 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 looking at Pivotal, on the Euro hi-res, system at 00Z on 9/27 is already 12mb stronger compared with the same timeframe on the 0Z run (990mb vs. 1002mb) edit: also moving faster than the 00Z run, approaching the western tip of Cuba already as of 9/27 06Z on the latest euro hires run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Smacking extreme western Cuba at 168 at 985mb per TT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 168 about to hit Cuba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Entering E GOM at 180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Just now, yoda said: Entering E GOM at 180 Pretty much due north movement at that point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Bit faster on this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 965 west of the keys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Another eastern gulf monster 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 the short trip over the western part of Cuba certainly had little negative affect on the system, not a good sign for wherever in the Gulf it heads for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Just now, batmanbrad said: the short trip over the western part of Cuba certainly had little negative affect on the system, not a good sign for wherever in the Gulf it heads for. Looks like Big Bend of FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: You must be new here. Fair. The meltdowns will be glorious when the core falls apart over Cuba and makes landfall over the swamps of Florida as an anemic cat 2. Or something like that 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 The eastern US trough is very strong this run, and does not lift out, which helps to really pull the hurricane north into west coast of Florida. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 A very dangerous track for Tampa on the 12Z Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Really hooking NE. Going to be somewhere north of Tampa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Looks like Big Bend of FL I will have a front seat view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Just now, GaWx said: A very dangerous track for Tampa on the 12Z Euro. Indeed... luckily skirts by as it heads north... but very close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Indeed... luckily skirts by as it heads north... but very close Actually looks like it's going to make landfall just north of Tampa at 228 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 yes, if I'm in the Tampa/Clearwater/St Pete area I'm not liking this run, if it jogs slightly more east that area will be in the worst area (RFQ) of the cane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 The Euro has it weakening as it approaches the coast as wind shear increases and dry air is pulled into the circulation. This is way out in time, though, so the details are unknowable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Ho Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 With the size of the system that is the worst case scenario for Tampa. The eyewall would be just offshore, but the surge would still pound the bay. Also these recurving systems tend to slide east (at least from what ive seen tracking the last 20 years). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AChilders Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Was written in Jan 2010, but path looks similar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 13 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The eastern US trough is very strong this run, and does not lift out, which helps to really pull the hurricane north into west coast of Florida. This is going to be what to watch for as far as direct impact is concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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